Nb 10.0 trend trading system | Page 14 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

HYBRID: trading system within a trading system 31 replies

Trend Manager Trading System 153 replies

Is Grid Trading (combined trend following and counter trend) Profitable? 3 replies

trading system opposite to trend 1 reply

hksweeper's Trading Journal - Reaction Trend System 20 replies

Attachments: Nb 10.0 trend trading system
Exit Attachments

Nb 10.0 trend trading system

  • #261
  • Edited 4:49pm Aug 31, 2011 1:36pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting astral77
Sorry to barge in. My favourite site for forex is forexcrunch (gives the news the way you describe, in small easily digestable chunks), others find dailyfx and fxstreet useful as well. I suggest you google few and just browse through some and see which one you like.
Kind regards
Barging is OK. Thanks! astral for those suggestions. I'll definitely check them out.


Thanks also to MorningMania.

knickalls
  • #262
  • Aug 31, 2011 3:52pm Aug 31, 2011 3:52pm
Hi All,

this is a question to anyone who can possibly answer, I have looked through the 3 threads and documents but wish to ensure that my understanding of this particular area is correct

Question is regarding Hedge & Recovery

I noticed that Censura has been hedging his trades as soon as they get to about 100 pips drawdown and is then matching out the drawdown with winning trades to close out the hedge, and Nanningbob at one point suggested using both hedging and recovery, ie. hedge the 100 pip drawdown, then instead of using other currencies to close out the hedge, use the standard recovery procedures to close out the hedge.

If you was to use both hedging and recovery is my maths correct that the maximum drawdown then would be roughly nbr of pairs * 100 pips (plus of course the odd spread differences) - therefore bigger lot sizes could be used? ie. Nanningbob currently uses .03 for 1000 usd, to have the same level of safety and avoid risk of ruin, with hedging and recovery would it then be simply double or some other multiple?

ie. in absolute worst case scenario I don't want to have more than say 25% drawdown on the account and am running 25 pairs on a USD 1000 acct., therefore I never want to be more than 250 USD in drawdown, which equates to roughly 10usd per pair therefore I calculate that to be .01 of a standard lot, which is less than the .03 Nanningbob uses - hence my confusion - or am I missing something

Thanks in advance, John
  • #263
  • Aug 31, 2011 5:10pm Aug 31, 2011 5:10pm
Quoting jmw1970
Hi All,

this is a question to anyone who can possibly answer, I have looked through the 3 threads and documents but wish to ensure that my understanding of this particular area is correct

Question is regarding Hedge & Recovery

I noticed that Censura has been hedging his trades as soon as they get to about 100 pips drawdown and is then matching out the drawdown with winning trades to close out the hedge, and Nanningbob at one point suggested using both hedging and recovery, ie. hedge the 100 pip drawdown, then instead of using other currencies...
No confusion, you have done the math right. I am only trading 12 pairs on the range trading system and throw in an occasional trend trade. You would do better to go with fewer pairs, you can watch them all but actually trade X amount of pairs and stop at that amount. Just make sure you are not too heavy into one trading pair and keep your mix of pairs varied.
  • #264
  • Aug 31, 2011 5:33pm Aug 31, 2011 5:33pm
Quoting knickalls
Hi Nanningbob,

Firstly, Thank You for your sharing spirit. It is helpful and inspiring to those of us trying to find our way in Forex.

Secondly, I have a question about fundamentals resources, if you can spare the time to answer. You've mentioned several times how you use fundamentals information to make decisions regarding pairs to trade and whether to stay in a trade or not, and probably some other aspects as well. This seems like a wise course of action. I can find plenty of fundamental information by web searching, but I wanted to ask if you...
My favorite financial guru is John Maudin. His best seller 'End Game' is a must read if you want to understand financials of government. I get his daily news letter and he does not deal in Forex but is broad based in his financial analysis and I also think he is very balanced in his approach. For example most of the dooms day stuff you read comes from the gold sellers. Well, if you understand gold, you have to put a lot of fear in people to get them to buy it because you cant use it for anything but to buy, hold and then resell. It doesnt collect interest, pay dividends, cant use it at the grocery store, and is extremely volatile, more is being produced than sold right now but the fear factor is so high price keeps moving up, etc. They have to sell doom and gloom to sell their product. Now that doesnt mean it may not be a good buy right now but you need to understand the nature of what you are buying and the sales story of those selling it. Almost every doom and gloom news report guy has a little button some place on his website where you can go buy gold or silver.

I like John because he isnt hawking gold and gives you a very balanced report. He keeps me balanced concerning the financial future of the USA. We are headed for trouble but we are not at doomsday YET. He has been extremely accurate in letting me know that Europe is in far worse shape than the USA. So read his book and you will know that our economic situation is really bad and why it is bad with out going into the craziness of the conspiracy theorists. I then can take this kind of information without Forex rose colored glasses and have an idea of what is up. You see me report on Aus. and its relationship with China and the upcoming Euro crisis in Germany. I have known this stuff for several weeks now but it is just now hitting the news wires. He also tells how to get out of this mess but his answers are not politically acceptable at this point.

FOREX factory news is guys posting their opinions and very few are reliable. Most of it is garbage. We just had some guy post a couple of weeks ago to buy buy buy the Euro. The guy is a complete idiot. I made fun of a guy last week who posted buy buy GBP. I made fun of him at the time even though his long range assessment maybe good. GBP maybe next years safe haven currency. Read around but Maudin is right on A+B+C will always equal D no matter what the politicians tell you. Thousands of years of economic history will tell you that you cant cut taxes, increase government spending and expect things to turn out well. It just wont work. I cant believe people swallow that logic but we have nation after nation after nation following that formula and now we have disaster waiting at our doorstep. Anyway I find his daily newsletter and it is free to be worth a ton of gold.
  • #265
  • Aug 31, 2011 7:14pm Aug 31, 2011 7:14pm
Hello Nanningbob,
I have a question for you.Where do all these gold buyers come from?And what is the purpose behind them?You know the ones I am talking about,all the new store fronts that want to buy your old jewelry,and the commercials on TV wanting it?Where does that fit in this crazy gold rush?
  • #266
  • Edited Sep 1, 2011 12:16am Aug 31, 2011 11:58pm | Edited Sep 1, 2011 12:16am
Quoting jlmac27
Hello Nanningbob,
I have a question for you.Where do all these gold buyers come from?And what is the purpose behind them?You know the ones I am talking about,all the new store fronts that want to buy your old jewelry,and the commercials on TV wanting it?Where does that fit in this crazy gold rush?
There are two major markets in gold for retail. Buy fresh gold mined out of the ground or resell (secondary) market where you can buy other peoples gold from coins jewelry etc. It is the secondary market that is flooded right now but it is changing hands so quickly the price just keeps shooting up with occasional dips. So many people have turned in their secondary gold (jewelry, coins, etc) for cash that the market it flooded. So up go the retail shops. Wholesalers are overstocked and if gold crashes they are stuck with a depreciating item. There has also been some changes in the law so that if you buy gold you have to take possession of it within 30 days of sale. (I dont know all about this part or its ramifications). Conspiracy theorists and traders have been going nuts over the change but the idea behind the law is to prevent gold from becoming way over valued like real estate did by people who just buy the paper and resell it without taking possession. They are trying to cool the paper trading in gold. So if a broker sells something of gold he has to ship it or deliver it to the person who bought it. That is the simplest explanation I can give in one paragraph.

As you may know gold traders are a haven for worst case scenario people so they also believe in buying up as much as possible before everything goes Kaboom. I personally dont think the USA is at that point yet but if Germany decides to no longer fund European deficits or pulls out of the Euro union, all bets are off on that. I have no idea at this point what could happen next except when you see price break away from those two lines on the daily, jump on board and take the ride.
  • #267
  • Sep 1, 2011 3:11am Sep 1, 2011 3:11am
also none of the loony gold buyers have any contingency to sell, they will hold till they die, im gonna laugh wholeheartedly when gold bubble pops.. trying to watch rats leave a sinking ship...

then again i believe in stupidity being punished.. something our world govts dont seem to endorse atm with their bail-out-onomics
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #268
  • Sep 1, 2011 7:05am Sep 1, 2011 7:05am
Quoting nanningbob
My favorite financial guru is John Maudin. His best seller 'End Game' is a must read if you want to understand financials of government. I get his daily news letter and he does not deal in Forex but is broad based in his financial analysis and I also think he is very balanced in his approach......
Excellent! Thanks for the detailed response, I appreciate it.
  • #269
  • Sep 1, 2011 8:45am Sep 1, 2011 8:45am
Quoting jmw1970
Hi All,

this is a question to anyone who can possibly answer, I have looked through the 3 threads and documents but wish to ensure that my understanding of this particular area is correct

Question is regarding Hedge & Recovery

I noticed that Censura has been hedging his trades as soon as they get to about 100 pips drawdown and is then matching out the drawdown with winning trades to close out the hedge, and Nanningbob at one point suggested using both hedging and recovery, ie. hedge the 100 pip drawdown, then instead of using other currencies...
A word of caution to those who hedge. When you are playing around with heding be aware of the overnight swaps you are charged. I looked at my broker and on some pairs if I hedge I have to pay more than 10 pips in overnight swaps to my broker. Multiply your swap costs with the average recovery time and you will get the risk you are exposed to by heding.

For example on my broker the long swap for EUR/MXN is -16.8 pips and the short is +5.6. So if I hedge I have to pay 11.2 pips for every day I am hedged. Not that I would trade EUR/MXN but you get the picture.
"To whom much is given, much is expected." Donald Trump
  • #270
  • Sep 1, 2011 8:46am Sep 1, 2011 8:46am
Quoting whitegoodman
also none of the loony gold buyers have any contingency to sell, they will hold till they die, im gonna laugh wholeheartedly when gold bubble pops.. trying to watch rats leave a sinking ship...

then again i believe in stupidity being punished.. something our world govts dont seem to endorse atm with their bail-out-onomics
Well I kind of agree on that one. Whenever you see anything spike up very quickly that is usually its last gasp before the come down. Just remember oil was 140 a barrel at one time and people said it would never come down again. Same thing with real estate, etc. I think the gold thing is done unless the Euro unwinds or Euro debt or who knows what else is lurking out there hits the news and then gold frenzy will hit again. I have no idea how long or how high it will go but when it unwinds, look out below baby because it will fall big time. It is not like forex, if there are no buyers you are stuck.

Just for an example the USA is #1 in gold holdings (gold guys never tell you that). It has 3X more gold reserves than the #2 country Germany. China is way behind at #10 but they like to tell you China is trying to capture the market, called lying with statistics. Lets say someone really really smart knew to sell out all the USA holdings near the peak and then let it crash and buy it back later when price is low. Who knows how much of our debt we could pay off if we knew how to do that. In fact buy back all our foreign debt using our gold and let gold crash and then buy it back for pennies on the dollar. The USA has enough gold reserves to do that. I dont think Bernanke could ever think of that one. Dang must be a boring week trading to do all this gold talk. I better shut up.
  • #271
  • Sep 1, 2011 8:56am Sep 1, 2011 8:56am
Quoting Balazs227
A word of caution to those who hedge. When you are playing around with heding be aware of the overnight swaps you are charged. I looked at my broker and on some pairs if I hedge I have to pay more than 10 pips in overnight swaps to my broker. Multiply your swap costs with the average recovery time and you will get the risk you are exposed to by heding.

For example on my broker the long swap for EUR/MXN is -16.8 pips and the short is +5.6. So if I hedge I have to pay 11.2 pips for every day I am hedged. Not that I would trade EUR/MXN but you get...
Interesting. I usually dont pay much attention to swaps. Just part of the trade.
  • #272
  • Sep 1, 2011 1:22pm Sep 1, 2011 1:22pm
Bob,

I gotta say I love this so far. I don't understand everything yet...probably never will... but I'm up 155 pips on E/U and +193 on U/C in the last couple of days.
  • #273
  • Sep 1, 2011 5:19pm Sep 1, 2011 5:19pm
Those of you that took the EURO sells are smiling today yes
  • #274
  • Sep 1, 2011 6:41pm Sep 1, 2011 6:41pm
Hi All

If the market is in officially in Range mode but with a bias Long (as the EURCAD was from about the 11th Aug) I cannot quite understand the concept of using the 1H CTR Sell as Nanningbob suggested in response to someone else's question (although it seemed to be profitable), wouldn't it be better to use either the Both or to use the Buy to be at least going with the bias

Maybe I missed something? Or is it that if it switches from UT/DT to range we are trying to anticipate the trend change.

Regards, John
  • #275
  • Sep 1, 2011 8:41pm Sep 1, 2011 8:41pm
Quoting jmw1970
Hi All

If the market is in officially in Range mode but with a bias Long (as the EURCAD was from about the 11th Aug) I cannot quite understand the concept of using the 1H CTR Sell as Nanningbob suggested in response to someone else's question (although it seemed to be profitable), wouldn't it be better to use either the Both or to use the Buy to be at least going with the bias

Maybe I missed something? Or is it that if it switches from UT/DT to range we are trying to anticipate the trend change.

Regards, John
It is a good and fair question. When price does a run and then ends the next step usually is to range or retreat. It will only continue to run if there is a strong fundamental working on the currency pair. If you are only doing sells then you are playing price to come back to its median. Price will always come back to its median unless there is an over riding fundamental working on the pair. For example I will be watching Germany for the next two weeks. What it decides to do will play on the basic fundamental of the Euro. If Germany decides it is not going to do more bailout funding then forget going back to the median you will just short the Euro until it the big run is done (most likely parity with the dollar) which could be months or even years. If Germany backs the EURO and comes in with some funding package then expect the Euro to retrace back to its median. If it doesn't then look out below. This type of news story is what I call a super news story. Super news stories make indicators of all kinds worthless. What Germany does next is potentially a super news story on par with Oct. 2008 or even bigger. You do not want to be on any buys with the Euro right now no matter what your indicators are saying.
  • #276
  • Sep 1, 2011 9:53pm Sep 1, 2011 9:53pm
Here is the eur/cad now yes price did drift up but without a strong fundamental working on it it couldn't break up anymore. This is what 10.0 was trying to tell you. When the 2MA line gets broken the strength of the present move is broken and the majority of time it will range or reverse. There was a battle between bears and bulls for 2 weeks and the bulls lost for now. However, now that price has broken south, I know of a possible fundamental that could keep it going south for a long time. I will play all Euros for sells even if they touch the 2MA because I know of a potential strong fundamental in play right now. Super news stories always trump indicators, ALWAYS. See pic below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur cad.gif Size: 83 KB
  • #277
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:41pm Sep 1, 2011 10:41pm
Just a note about hedging.. Always leave yourself room to play with just in case the initial recovery doesn't work out and price continues to trend against you. I would not trade large lot sizes just because you can hedge. Spoken from current experiece
  • #278
  • Sep 2, 2011 7:39am Sep 2, 2011 7:39am
I am currently up over 1500 pips on the last couple of days. Is anyone else having this kind of run. It almost scares me...
  • #279
  • Sep 2, 2011 8:27am Sep 2, 2011 8:27am
Quoting spyderman
I am currently up over 1500 pips on the last couple of days. Is anyone else having this kind of run. It almost scares me...
I have had test days of over 1000 but 1500 must be nice. Lets see my cut is ...................
  • #280
  • Sep 2, 2011 6:25pm Sep 2, 2011 6:25pm
Here are the trades I posted Monday and their results:

reenter trend with 1H sell EA:
gbp/aud +75 really screwed up not watching this one.
gbp/jpy +101
gbp/nzd +345

reenter trend with 1H buy EA:
aud/chf +120 took a -500 loss on bad trade. Instead of counter trading I had more than enough profit to cover the change of direction I did not expect.
usd/chf +215 also closed -200

Range trade the 1H CTR on sells
eur/usd +212 I like the euro sell call
eur/jpy +127

IO sell
eur/cad +101
eur/nzd +172

That is 9 trades and two to watch. Let you know how it is going later in the week.

Totals +1468 -700= 768 pips for the week.

The bottom line is I really screwed up this week. Was expecting the trending to continue and Eur and GBP took runs. Closed a lot of trades way too early. I should have had a really monster week but you know profit is profit.
4 traders viewing now