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  • #533,661
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:38am Sep 1, 2011 10:38am
how many pips for reversal... I realize that there is no exact answer for this or pretty much anything in 4X...I'm just making an observation that since 8/29/11 we've dropped a bit over 300 pips..it would seem that we could be at an area where we could be considering a reversal...imho...
  • #533,662
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:42am Sep 1, 2011 10:42am
Quoting petehnm
how many pips for reversal... I realize that there is no exact answer for this or pretty much anything in 4X...I'm just making an observation that since 8/29/11 we've dropped a bit over 300 pips..it would seem that we could be at an area where we could be considering a reversal...imho...
check h4 for reversal at least that is significant 32 50% retracement
  • #533,663
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:42am Sep 1, 2011 10:42am
this is taken from a very interesting article in FF on major banks' forecast!
http://www.fxclub.com/customfiles/Im...%208_31_11.jpg
  • #533,664
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:46am Sep 1, 2011 10:46am
Quoting Martingale
this is taken from a very interesting article in FF on major banks' forecast!
http://www.fxclub.com/customfiles/Im...%208_31_11.jpg
would be nice to see forcasts compared the the REAL historical.
The dreamers are the saviors of the world.
  • #533,665
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:49am Sep 1, 2011 10:49am
Quoting Pipwanderer
check h4 for reversal at least that is significant 32 50% retracement

thanks pipwander will do...have put a fib retraction on the 300 down move and 38% is around the 1.4350 area...defintely keep my eye on it...
  • #533,666
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:49am Sep 1, 2011 10:49am
Quoting Martingale
this is taken from a very interesting article in FF on major banks' forecast!
http://www.fxclub.com/customfiles/Im...%208_31_11.jpg
so do you have the chart about those banks forecast regard on EU price at Q4 10, Q1 11, Q2 11 ?
  • #533,667
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:50am Sep 1, 2011 10:50am
75... we have retraced about 50 % of last move down
Live trading since november '10 Demo since april '09
  • #533,668
  • Edited 11:10am Sep 1, 2011 10:53am | Edited 11:10am
Another 5th extension or over , breaks 4315 or bottom again . I am maintaining the same views still , long at any low . risk though at times .
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #533,669
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:54am Sep 1, 2011 10:54am
Still valid time for longs
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  • #533,670
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:55am Sep 1, 2011 10:55am
Quoting Yuchen
so do you have the chart about those banks forecast regard on EU price at Q4 10, Q1 11, Q2 11 ?
Again, people, I just said this is taken from an artice on FF. If you want to see the forecast in previous quarter my friend you just have to work a lot, is not impossible but take some time: just check the volume of the futures and options which were expiring "as of today" and comparing those against today's price.

I can tell you recently forecasts have not been so accurate.. funny enough the biggest discrepancy happened in September 2010 but this was due to a very low volume I think.
  • #533,671
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:57am Sep 1, 2011 10:57am
Quoting fontu
Another 5th is extension or over , breaks 4315 or bottom again . I am maintaining the same views still , long at any low . risk though at times .
fontu
second that, still seeing 4400
  • #533,672
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:58am Sep 1, 2011 10:58am
My range for next 12 months to trade is around 1.53 to 1.36.

My long long term is to see Euro below 1.30 but that can take more than 12 months or no, all depends in some crucial news from the market.

November could be the month to decide if PA will go to 1.53 or no.

We can see a trade range around 1.39/1.46 for next months.

My advise it is always to short above 1.45 for medium term trades SL above 1.4635
  • #533,673
  • Sep 1, 2011 11:02am Sep 1, 2011 11:02am
Quoting Martingale
this is taken from a very interesting article in FF on major banks' forecast!
http://www.fxclub.com/customfiles/Im...%208_31_11.jpg
Interesting - I can see strong waveform analysis that support barclays view for early Q4, though my numbers are a little different (not as high) and only hold till maybe mid oct at best.

Late Q4, Im more in agreement with Citygroup or even Meryll Lynch.

Just take a look at the current D1 or W1 charts on a broad view from a distance - some fairly obvious patterns stick out that sugest a couple of likely paths even before you get into deep mathemaical analytics.


Edit - just noticed Societe Generale - that must be who ratyo works for as it allmost exact opposite to what I think
  • #533,674
  • Sep 1, 2011 11:04am Sep 1, 2011 11:04am
Quoting Pipwanderer
watch for 4275 80 sell there
s 4280 sl 4290 tp 4250
  • #533,675
  • Sep 1, 2011 11:08am Sep 1, 2011 11:08am
Quoting DubaiFX
good i like that i am thinking same too

Good Luck...
in eurchf and gbpchf
What position now you are in eur/usd? After your short reached 1.4250?
have you taken long? What TP? 1.4500??
  • #533,676
  • Sep 1, 2011 11:10am Sep 1, 2011 11:10am
Quoting BoredToLoose
My range for next 12 months to trade is around 1.53 to 1.36.

My long long term is to see Euro below 1.30 but that can take more than 12 months or no, all depends in some crucial news from the market.

November could be the month to decide if PA will go to 1.53 or no.

We can see a trade range around 1.39/1.46 for next months.

My advise it is always to short above 1.45 for medium term trades SL above 1.4635
How about today now!! Are you long or short?? what TP??
  • #533,677
  • Sep 1, 2011 11:16am Sep 1, 2011 11:16am
Quoting behman8850
How about today now!! Are you long or short?? what TP??
..I do not even trade forex anymore, I am here only to give some tips.

I trade with no leverage for long term.

My call was done yesterday for a possible 1.4389 break, now we must wait and see if PA will confirm the break or no.

For me it is a valid break the set-up is nice, but in Forex it's better never believe in set-ups.

for now I advice a short above 1.4298 wit SL at 1.4335
1.4284 can well be the last top, but next M30's can give more up move to come, so it's why I trade only in strong levels, this one is not.
  • #533,678
  • Sep 1, 2011 11:20am Sep 1, 2011 11:20am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post4920668


  • #533,679
  • Edited 11:42am Sep 1, 2011 11:29am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting konrad
second that, still seeing 4400
ok and carefull. no false believe , do it & then believe it . before it made false move & down .step by step till ok & stable .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #533,680
  • Sep 1, 2011 11:35am Sep 1, 2011 11:35am
Quoting Louie
There is a defense play on the 1.4200 level. There is a DNT (do not touch option there). If the NFP numbers are good for the US it most likely will get taken out tomorrow with the stops under it.
You mean double no touch. If someone is planning to hold that off till middle of the month - think they are better off accepting defeat now or doing the hari kari thing - save themselves alot of inevitable pain
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