USD/JPY Discussion | Page 1330 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,581
  • Aug 31, 2011 2:04pm Aug 31, 2011 2:04pm
Quoting JollyBean
So just wondering... being a USD-Bear, you think this level might possibly be a low for a long time to come?
well those words are a little too strong for me but yes not looking for a scalp of 10 pips but a swing of some more pips.
The level 76.48: see my previous charts (always prefer horizontals).
The now in order of importance because of
1. the level
2. developing USDX strength
3. EUR/JPY levels might become critical for BOJ
4. end of month, clearing of buying pressure of Yen by japanese exporters for a while.
5. volume arguments I mentioned
I do no position trades, so will sell of in due time no target yet but below 76.70 would be disappointing....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,582
  • Aug 31, 2011 3:03pm Aug 31, 2011 3:03pm
Hey Fosking,

Can I ask you some questions about your post containing this chart :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YENUS1.png Size: 173 KB


The initial spike UP was the stophunt?
Are they hunting StopLoss or BuyStop orders or Sell limit orders?

If it was stoploss, it would have been stoploss for SELL orders, but as they are triggered, wouldn't price cascade further up, since closing of the SELL orders is in fact opening of a BUY order.
The same would apply for BuyStop orders, price would cascade further UP.

So what is the purpose of the stophunt?
Was the Stophunt intentional, to drive price down after the hunt?

Greetings Edja
  • #26,583
  • Aug 31, 2011 4:01pm Aug 31, 2011 4:01pm
Quoting edja00
Hey Fosking,

So what is the purpose of the stophunt?
Was the Stophunt intentional, to drive price down after the hunt?

Greetings Edja
Hi Edja!

Stop loss hunting is just trading against weaker traders to shake them out of the market and take their money. It's a zero sum game.

For instance, on the Yen futures, today has been a positive day.
The chart has respected the ascending trend line well and the horizontal resistance turned into support.
If you were trading with the trend your SL would/should have been following price up under each new support to lock in profits.
Once the support is broken stop losses are hit and the traders seeking a breakout south also jump on the short train.
Longs should be happy they followed price up and was taken out near the top to lock in profits, then bought in again at the lower ascending trend line.
The traders who jumped in short after the breakout would have placed their stops above the now purple resistance and would have been taken out shortly after the sharp down move.

On the USD/JPY chart, anyone who is buying at the moment will be looking to put their stops under the last support level, which will probably mean the 76.40 level. Currently 91% of FXCM retail traders are long, which will result in a large amount of stops below recent support. If we get down to this level again, those stops will be taken out. The Big Boys are after your money!

Stop loss hunting is a massive part of trading and Big Boys love it. It's also why we have so many fake breakouts and I don't like trading breakouts.
A breakout always needs to be tested before just jumping in.
The highest probability trade you want to be in is selling at resistance in a down trend, and buying at support in an up trend. The trend is your friend

Yen Futures M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yen2.png Size: 318 KB


USD/JPY M15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy2.png Size: 91 KB
  • #26,584
  • Aug 31, 2011 4:05pm Aug 31, 2011 4:05pm
Quoting edja00
Hey Fosking,

Can I ask you some questions about your post containing this chart :

Attachment

The initial spike UP was the stophunt?
Are they hunting StopLoss or BuyStop orders or Sell limit orders?

If it was stoploss, it would have been stoploss for SELL orders, but as they are triggered, wouldn't price cascade further up, since closing of the SELL orders is in fact opening of a BUY order.
The same would apply for BuyStop orders, price would cascade further UP.

So what is the purpose of the stophunt?
Was the...
assuming initial spike up was a stophunt means they are chasing stops of earlier sellers.
This is done by pro if they want to drive price lower (sell) and (mostly in quiet times) are able to move price higher first by buying.
Example: suppose current price is 76.52 and they need to sell 100 mio.
They can exactly see market depth (bids and asks at different prices).
Suppose the bids ly in such a manner that selling 100 mio would be possible at an average price of 76.30
Now they see that only with 10 mio they can move the price up to 76.80 so they do that resulting in the need to sell 110 mio.
The move to 76.80 resulted in 80 mio buy orders at 76.80 they sell 80 mio at 76.80 and the rest at for example 76.60 resulting in a better selling price than without stop hunting.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,585
  • Edited 4:30pm Aug 31, 2011 4:11pm | Edited 4:30pm
Thanks Fosking (Edit : and USD-Bear) for your reply.
Appreciate it !

Edja

P.S. don't quite understand it all yet, but I'll go and do some reading on stophunts.
  • #26,586
  • Aug 31, 2011 4:27pm Aug 31, 2011 4:27pm
Quoting edja00
Thanks Fosking for your reply.
Appreciate it !

Edja

P.S. don't quite understand it all yet, but I'll go and do some reading on stophunts.
Your welcome
Just stick with the trend, move your stop loss quickly and it wont be so much of a problem.
  • #26,587
  • Aug 31, 2011 4:37pm Aug 31, 2011 4:37pm
a true ECN wouldn't be zero sum. MMs pretty much are though and that's why they don't want you to win. They get fined millions every now and then for cheating so that's why MB Trading, PFG Best etc. who are ECNs don't stop hunt. Nonetheless, big players who want to buy and want to maintain the high price afterwards would first want people to go short so that when the big players go long, they would be triggering the stop losses of the shorters and that's just more buying, as opposed to people going long who would take profit and drive the market backwards.
  • #26,588
  • Aug 31, 2011 5:34pm Aug 31, 2011 5:34pm
Quoting SIgurs
That sounds amazingly naive !
want to attack opinions and if they are addressed you are no where?
Welcome to my ignore list
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,589
  • Aug 31, 2011 6:27pm Aug 31, 2011 6:27pm
I know this is not a thread about point and figure charting...but if you put a 20pip box sized p&f on the screen..thn there is a clear support at 76,25 level where price bounced 4 times...if that level is broken then the price might go to a lower round number 75,00 level...But for now the support level at 76,25 seems strong enough to push the price back to up levels..

(ofcourse this is my idea)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 22 KB
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #26,590
  • Aug 31, 2011 7:28pm Aug 31, 2011 7:28pm
Quoting selym_co
I know this is not a thread about point and figure charting...but if you put a 20pip box sized p&f on the screen..thn there is a clear support at 76,25 level where price bounced 4 times...if that level is broken then the price might go to a lower round number 75,00 level...But for now the support level at 76,25 seems strong enough to push the price back to up levels..

(ofcourse this is my idea)
Well the support in that region is quite obvious, but the way you found it works for you so that's great.

This pair is difficult to trade at the moment, for me anyway, because it's impossible to know whether such events as NFP are going to push this thing down further or not. Of course that is always an 'unknown', but when the USD and Euro has so little going for it fundamentally, it makes it that much more challenging to trade.

I like this pair, but I can't trade it at the moment....other pairs are much easier...imo
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,591
  • Aug 31, 2011 7:50pm Aug 31, 2011 7:50pm
Well ... price penetrated 34sma - 72 sma and the ichimoku cloud..my expectation is the close price of the H4 candle above the ichimoku cloud and the moving avarages..It will make me sleep more comfortabally )

Honestly i dont care much about the news while trading in order to not be confused...i even do not watch the news , the only stuff i read is the threads here on this forum.And i can say that it is enough to be successful when u obey the rules of ur method even if they are based on only the chart itself. (Again this is my idea) And risk is not "risk" when u control it with a strategy...so if you set a reasonable stop loss level and have ur own rules of ur own method..then its ok...and USDjpy seems to be the best place to trade now )
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy2.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy3.gif Size: 27 KB
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #26,592
  • Aug 31, 2011 7:59pm Aug 31, 2011 7:59pm
Much needed is to bypass 77.04 to bring out more action into this laggard pair.....
  • #26,593
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:09pm Aug 31, 2011 8:09pm
It's 'put up or shut up' time for this pair!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.jpg Size: 112 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,594
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:23pm Aug 31, 2011 8:23pm
It's just waiting for people to load up on shorts, then it will spike up taking out all the stops linger for a while in the range then in about six hours slam down to the bottom of the range once again taking everyone's stops...then Noda will put in a buy and sell order at the same time he is watching his other hedged positions, yeah nonsensical pair at the moment....
Never been vouched
  • #26,595
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:31pm Aug 31, 2011 8:31pm
and i took the profits...its enogh for one night....22% growth in deposit with usdjpy )
i love this pair !!! it moves soo fast!
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #26,596
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:33pm Aug 31, 2011 8:33pm
Quoting selym_co
and i took the profits...its enogh for one night....22% growth in deposit with usdjpy )
i love this pair !!! it moves soo fast!
Well done
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,597
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:33pm Aug 31, 2011 8:33pm
Quoting smilemiz
longterm

1stpost:http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post4914883
A vision or was is just a illusion
trade safe
  • #26,598
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:38pm Aug 31, 2011 8:38pm
Quoting realjumper
Well done

my target was to take 100 pips but 50 is not that bad too...(i lost too much in the past because of being greedy,so thats kinda education for myself)

but thank you..i hope all of you made green pips...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #26,599
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:45pm Aug 31, 2011 8:45pm
Quoting selym_co
my target was to take 100 pips but 50 is not that bad too...(i lost too much in the past because of being greedy,so thats kinda education for myself)

but thank you..i hope all of you made green pips...
No one ever went broke from taking profits man!! Very often I will manually trail my stops until the trade eventually gets stopped out in profit, which often exceeds my targets......but my targets usually coincide with daily pivot points.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,600
  • Aug 31, 2011 10:16pm Aug 31, 2011 10:16pm
野田佳彦提倡“泥鳅政治”：不花哨，有泥土味，执着，务实，不像金鱼那样只是让人观赏。
25 traders viewing now