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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,561
  • Aug 31, 2011 12:43pm Aug 31, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting SIgurs
Any idea how much money would be needed in order to move price that much ? Again, a very naive thought.
I think you need to learn how to respect mate
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,562
  • Aug 31, 2011 12:45pm Aug 31, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting FXMindset
I think you need to learn how to respect mate
Didn't realize that my post was disrespectfull. Moreover, what's wrong with calling things the way they are ?

Nothing more or less than a naive thought.
  • #26,563
  • Aug 31, 2011 12:47pm Aug 31, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting SIgurs
Didn't realize that my post was disrespectfull. Moreover, what's wrong with calling things the way they are ?

Nothing more or less than a naive thought.
no offense taken but just tell me what is naive?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,564
  • Aug 31, 2011 12:53pm Aug 31, 2011 12:53pm
Here's why I don't think we'll be going too far down from here...

1) This is a monthly support level we're talking about. If it breaks, who knows where it'll go down to - The "bad news" will be reported again of yen's rising against the dollar - and Noda will get flak.

2) But of course Noda doesn't want to create a negative impression, especially as Japan's newly elected PM, and an opposer of the yen's rise against the dollar. So it's more likely he'll firmly do something about it now... as compared to previous times when he was just "watching".

Not saying there's going to be an intervention. But if I were Noda, I probably wouldn't want to receive bad news this early, and so I would have plans firmly in place.
  • #26,565
  • Edited 1:15pm Aug 31, 2011 12:58pm | Edited 1:15pm
Quoting SIgurs
Any idea how much money would be needed in order to move price that much ? Again, a very naive thought.
Ok, I appreciate the chart looks a mess but please stick with me.
As USD-Bear states, the reshuffling of funds and stop loss hunting is more than likely the reason for the spike.

Below I have over layed the USDOLLAR index over the USD/JPY. The USDOLLAR index by FXCM and Dow Jones is an equally weighted basket of currencies against to USD. If I was to zoom out a little on the chart, the correlation is very tight, hence the use of studying the USDX or USDOLLAR whilst trading USD/JPY, but that's another discussion.

The black line on the chart is USD/JPY and the light blue is the USDOLLAR.
Both the lines were in a sidewards range before the spike up. I have highlighted the USDOLLAR range in purple and the USD/JPY range in orange.
The chart shows the spike was caused by a sudden weakening of the Yen (breaking throughout the top of the range whilst the USDOLLAR range remained).
The chart also shows there was a little bit of lag from the USD/JPY weakening, then the USDOLLAR following (marked on as the green vertical line).
Stop loss hunting and the end of the month short covering certainly looks to be the cause of the move.

The spike was well capped around the daily pivot, as I stated this morning should offer good resistance and shorting opportunity if we break out of the descening channel.

The Big Boys are able to move the price where they want it. If they see stops building up in certain areas, they will run into them. Hence why the majority of retail forex traders consistantly lose money and moan the market always moves against them.

USDOLLAR Index / USD/JPY M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YENUS1.png Size: 173 KB
  • #26,566
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:07pm Aug 31, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting USD-Bear
on the other hand, high volume on downbars followed by higher closes on next bars could be a sign of sell-off and higher prices ahead.......

Trying a long @ 76.48 with tight stop

M15:
Attachment
widened stop, don't want to lose this one, look at EUR/USD and EUR/JPY
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,567
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:14pm Aug 31, 2011 1:14pm
Quoting fosking
Ok, I appreciate the chart looks a mess but please stick with me.
As USD-Bear states, the reshuffling of funds and stop loss hunting is more than likely the reason for the spike.

Below I have over layed the USDOLLAR index over the USD/JPY. The USDOLLAR index by FXCM and Dow Jones is an equally weighted basket of currencies against to USD. If I was to zoom out a little on the chart, the correlation is very tight, hence the use of studying the USDX or USDOLLAR whilst trading USD/JPY, but that's another discussion.

The black line on the chart...
interesting.btw may i know what timeframe is it in your chart
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,568
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:15pm Aug 31, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting FXMindset
interesting.btw may i know what timeframe is it in your chart
Sorry meant to say, M5.
  • #26,569
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:16pm Aug 31, 2011 1:16pm
Taking a heavy long at 76.51... 10 pip SL.

Going to hold till the cows come home
  • #26,570
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:28pm Aug 31, 2011 1:28pm
Quoting fosking

USDOLLAR Index / USD/JPY M5
Attachment
Beautiful analyses fosking, the way only you can do, thanks
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,571
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:29pm Aug 31, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting JollyBean
Taking a heavy long at 76.51... 10 pip SL.

Going to hold till the cows come home
wish us luck
Just remember I didn't do it
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,572
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:35pm Aug 31, 2011 1:35pm
Quoting USD-Bear
wish us luck
Just remember I didn't do it
Good luck to us

But wait, what? you didn't do what?
  • #26,573
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:40pm Aug 31, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting JollyBean
Good luck to us

But wait, what? you didn't do what?
He didnt do heavy one,probably
So confidence ha bro took heavy?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,574
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:41pm Aug 31, 2011 1:41pm
Quoting JollyBean
Good luck to us

But wait, what? you didn't do what?
don't blame me if it goes wrong I mean.......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,575
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:42pm Aug 31, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting USD-Bear
don't blame me if it goes wrong I mean.......
ps and heavily involved BTW, but with acceptable risks.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,576
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:46pm Aug 31, 2011 1:46pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Beautiful analyses fosking, the way only you can do, thanks
Haha, please. You're too kind.
  • #26,577
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:47pm Aug 31, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting FXMindset
He didnt do heavy one,probably
So confidence ha bro took heavy?
Well I can afford a 10 pip loss Not hard on my pockets hehe
  • #26,578
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:50pm Aug 31, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting USD-Bear
ps and heavily involved BTW, but with acceptable risks.....
So just wondering... being a USD-Bear, you think this level might possibly be a low for a long time to come?
  • #26,579
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:59pm Aug 31, 2011 1:59pm
One thing am sure is when tokyo market open,this pairs is reluctant going lower

Dont take too serious
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,580
  • Aug 31, 2011 2:01pm Aug 31, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting FXMindset
One thing am sure is when tokyo market open,this pairs is reluctant going lower

Dont take too serious
Don't want to make noda angry
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