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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,461
  • Aug 29, 2011 11:39pm Aug 29, 2011 11:39pm
USDJPY Update
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,462
  • Aug 30, 2011 12:05am Aug 30, 2011 12:05am
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most of the medians point south for now. the base of demand at 76.30-76.60 has barely pushed below *35 on the rsi.

i wouldn't be tempted into long positions unless we reject from 75.50ish, pref with an rsi around 20.
  • #26,463
  • Aug 30, 2011 12:24am Aug 30, 2011 12:24am
Quoting werido
it hasn't broken the ichimoku support cloud even with the asian open which has been bearish this last month, so it's not looking that weak, although actual trend curves are down.
sorry just curious, which tf ichimoku support cloud are you looking at?
personally never found much clarity from ichimoku on tf's below the daily. do you use the "traditional" parameters?
  • #26,464
  • Aug 30, 2011 12:57am Aug 30, 2011 12:57am
Quoting USD-Bear
lol, thats why one is at its top and the other at it's bottom, it's just timelag, market manipulators and bastards, but hell Noda wants to surprise us, so anything possible

I guess his BEST SURPRISE is no intervention at all! lol
  • #26,465
  • Aug 30, 2011 1:04am Aug 30, 2011 1:04am
I will continue to hold my longs and one day... one day... the usd/jpy will hit 78.0
  • #26,466
  • Aug 30, 2011 1:09am Aug 30, 2011 1:09am
Quoting tradedatrend
I guess his BEST SURPRISE is no intervention at all! lol
It's a dangerous game. Because Noda opened his mouth, there's an expectation, if it doesn't deliver then there should be a resultant drop in the USD JPY pair as that expectation is factored out. The range looks pretty artificial as is, so its probably mainly been supported by the jaw boning.

Also, I'm wary of technical analysis that includes the recent intervention. It's an exogenous event that distorted the market greatly and the resulting behavior is not a standard model.
  • #26,467
  • Aug 30, 2011 1:28am Aug 30, 2011 1:28am
Quoting AntonA
It's a dangerous game. Because Noda opened his mouth, there's an expectation, if it doesn't deliver then there should be a resultant drop in the USD JPY pair as that expectation is factored out. The range looks pretty artificial as is, so its probably mainly been supported by the jaw boning.

Also, I'm wary of technical analysis that includes the recent intervention. It's an exogenous event that distorted the market greatly and the resulting behavior is not a standard model.
hmm interesting point.

personally i believe any price movement is part of TA...regardless of the cause. actually there are a couple of individuals in my office who had limit sell orders within 5 ticks of the top of said intervention. price movement is still governed by market participants--largely TA takes this into account.

i think it comes down to time frame. in a 5min TA a 300 tick price jump through intervention may completely be outside usual parameters, but on a 4hr TA its just price hitting a supply or demand zone faster.
  • #26,468
  • Aug 30, 2011 1:36am Aug 30, 2011 1:36am
Quoting AntonA
It's a dangerous game. Because Noda opened his mouth, there's an expectation, if it doesn't deliver then there should be a resultant drop in the USD JPY pair as that expectation is factored out.
You're absolutely right, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. It would be less harmfull to say nothing at all, instead of ousting threats and do nothing.

The SNB was and is way smarter, hence the 20% drop in the Chf. The way they acted provided a more durable depreciation of their currency.

BOJ is losing credibity in a rapid pace because of this 'verbal action but no real action' policy, which can proove to be disastrous now the Chf is not being considered as the number 1 safe haven.

Current weakness is mostly due to BOJ's unwillingness to follow through. Imo, the Jpy will strenghten further.

Remember, shorting the bounce (as said yesterday as well) is the best way to play the Jpy for the time being. The success rate is beyond discussion !
  • #26,469
  • Aug 30, 2011 1:40am Aug 30, 2011 1:40am
The next key Leg
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,470
  • Aug 30, 2011 1:42am Aug 30, 2011 1:42am
Quoting SIgurs
You're absolutely right, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. It would be less harmfull to say nothing at all, instead of ousting threats and do nothing.

The SNB was and is way smarter, hence the 20% drop in the Chf. The way they acted provided a more durable depreciation of their currency.

BOJ is losing credibity in a rapid pace because of this 'verbal action but no real action' policy, which can proove to be disastrous now the Chf is not being considered as the number 1 safe haven.

Current weakness is mostly due to BOJ's unwillingness...
Dont just keep saying and speculate bro,Post the chart and let members see so they can know very well.If you keep saying like that they wont learn anything
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,471
  • Aug 30, 2011 1:52am Aug 30, 2011 1:52am
Quoting FXMindset
Dont just keep saying and speculate bro,Post the chart and let members see so they can know very well.If you keep saying like that they wont learn anything
Post a chart of the BOJ's lack of follow through ? lol

Btw, my remarks are not speculation, it's an observation. Charts tell a story, so do stories/actions of Cb's. Imo, both charts and interpretations based on Cb's (non) actions have a place on this forum.
  • #26,472
  • Aug 30, 2011 1:54am Aug 30, 2011 1:54am
Thanks for the feedback pursuit and SIgurs

Pursuit: Nice stuff with the sell orders! And you are right, the resolution of the graph can provide greater context. What I'm finding hard to reconcile in a Technical Analysis model is that there's an player in the market who is acting irrationally by price discovery terms. And the BoJ intervention is quite a big player.

SIgurs: Spot on with the SNB, and shorting the bounce is moving with the tides, not the waves! I fear though that the BoJ can't exactly change strategy mid game and try something more controlled as they've already backed themselves up against the wall. Seems like their hand will almost be forced soon as I doubt the markets will put up with this range for much longer just based on talk.
  • #26,473
  • Aug 30, 2011 1:58am Aug 30, 2011 1:58am
Quoting SIgurs
Post a chart of the BOJ's lack of follow through ? lol

Btw, my remarks are not speculation, it's an observation. Charts tell a story, so do stories/actions of Cb's. Imo, both charts and interpretations based on Cb's (non) actions have a place on this forum.
Welcome to The Game Bro
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,474
  • Aug 30, 2011 2:03am Aug 30, 2011 2:03am
Quoting FXMindset
Dont just keep saying and speculate bro,Post the chart and let members see so they can know very well.If you keep saying like that they wont learn anything
Just to keep you happy; a 4hr chart of the Usd/Jpy. Looks to me like a break of the lower trendline is about to occur. No way that the upper line will be broken, a true pitty for those having long positions.

Investors are starting to realize that barking dogs don't bite, so why be afraid ? Lower prices are to be expecting, unless the BOJ steps and shows that they do have teeth. But hey, what are chances that they will act ? lol
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  • #26,475
  • Aug 30, 2011 2:03am Aug 30, 2011 2:03am
man... when will we get out of this sleep-inducing range...
  • #26,476
  • Aug 30, 2011 2:10am Aug 30, 2011 2:10am
Quoting SIgurs
Just to keep you happy; a 4hr chart of the Usd/Jpy. Looks to me like a break of the lower trendline is about to occur. No way that the upper line will be broken, a true pitty for those having long positions.

Investors are starting to realize that barking dogs don't bite, so why be afraid ? Lower prices are to be expecting, unless the BOJ steps and shows that they do have teeth. But hey, what are chances that they will act ? lol
Nah thats it
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,477
  • Aug 30, 2011 2:11am Aug 30, 2011 2:11am
I think I'll steer clear for now. The technicals for the downside are there but I worry about some of the fundamentals. I think I might take a cheeky downside entry and try to catch the break.
  • #26,478
  • Aug 30, 2011 2:14am Aug 30, 2011 2:14am
Quoting AntonA
SIgurs: Spot on with the SNB, and shorting the bounce is moving with the tides, not the waves! I fear though that the BoJ can't exactly change strategy mid game and try something more controlled as they've already backed themselves up against the wall. Seems like their hand will almost be forced soon as I doubt the markets will put up with this range for much longer just based on talk.
I'am confident that the market will test the Boj and see what they are really made of. Hope the Japanese realize that they are playing a dangerous game.

At the end it all boils down to credibility. The SNB clearly showed that they are not to be messed around with. They have put a line in the sand and act accordingly. Result; markets back off as they see that the SNB walks the talk !

You simply have to stand your ground, if not, sooner or later people will start to walk all over you. Imo, it's a simple rule of life.
  • #26,479
  • Aug 30, 2011 2:15am Aug 30, 2011 2:15am
Quoting AntonA
Thanks for the feedback pursuit and SIgurs

Pursuit: Nice stuff with the sell orders! And you are right, the resolution of the graph can provide greater context. What I'm finding hard to reconcile in a Technical Analysis model is that there's an player in the market who is acting irrationally by price discovery terms. And the BoJ intervention is quite a big player.

SIgurs: Spot on with the SNB, and shorting the bounce is moving with the tides, not the waves! I fear though that the BoJ can't exactly change strategy mid game and...

i guess then it would depend on your TA model, and the decision making process you go through after analysis.

your point is actually the precise reason why analysis is just that limited -- building up a case for probability, but at the end of the day, by itself, does not make for long term profitability. risk control and emotional/psych management holds equal weight in this regard.

i guess the point i was trying to clarify is that TA models can still be utilized towards profitability, even in light of such a big player openly stating its intentions -- haha, for that i'll leave it to Sigur's analysis.

btw, unfortunately i didn't get any sell orders in on the intervention, i trade smaller TF's than the others, and missed out on that opportunity
  • #26,480
  • Aug 30, 2011 2:19am Aug 30, 2011 2:19am
Quoting pursuit_21
i guess then it would depend on your TA model, and the decision making process you go through after analysis.

your point is actually the precise reason why analysis is just that limited -- building up a case for probability, but at the end of the day, by itself, does not make for long term profitability. risk control and emotional/psych management holds equal weight in this regard.

i guess the point i was trying to clarify is that TA models can still be utilized towards profitability, even in light of such a big player openly stating its...
Oh yes, TA certainly is a helpful tool, even on fundamental moves. I missed the sell orders too was too busy loading up long on xau

Sigur: The SNB are perceived to be a lot tougher, do you think it will prompt the BoJ to try to play tougher?
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