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EURUSD

  • #531,981
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:19am Aug 29, 2011 5:19am
Euro half out 26+ half still in BE...
aussie out +5...waiting for better entry
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #531,982
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:24am Aug 29, 2011 5:24am
Quoting SirGoodman
Do a 15 minute chart of EUR/USD and you will see this exact pattern that I suggested at the time. There is a fundamental reason for this patten even though it would be called pyschological.

After 6:00 AM the pattern changes again.

Imagine seeing this pattern repeat on a regular basis. This gives you an edge.
Can you elaborate this a bit more ?
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #531,983
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:24am Aug 29, 2011 5:24am
Quoting kbmoonshinex
short 4514. SL 5.
S too close,, ready tO get whipped

Sonic
  • #531,984
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:26am Aug 29, 2011 5:26am
Quoting sonicdeejay
S too close,, ready tO get whipped

Sonic

. closed +4 pips. today only scalp
looking for investors . pm me
  • #531,985
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:30am Aug 29, 2011 5:30am
this shit will drop to 1.4480 from now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I have past history of statements to justify what i say.
  • #531,986
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:31am Aug 29, 2011 5:31am
4263 TP long eur/cad...
looking for investors . pm me
  • #531,987
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:34am Aug 29, 2011 5:34am
I have short form 1.4547 with sl 1.4550 looking forward to get profit of 100 today. I can bet that it will reach 1.4447
  • #531,988
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:44am Aug 29, 2011 5:44am
Quoting Thijs
Can you elaborate this a bit more ?
There are two groups of traders in forex for this example. The retail trade which includes most of Forex Factory and similar sites. Then there are the traders that work for large institutions.

The patten that I speak about is caused by most of the retail traders and unfortunately for them most of the people that lose trading forex.

Let us look at last night being Sunday and since the pyschology was still there from the move on Friday that 1.4325 to 1.4500 in just three hours meant that EUR/USD might go over 1.4550 and it still might however I am only talking of last night and the pattern from 2:00 AM to 3:00 AM.

I explained how data last night plus the view that once EUR/USD hit it's High and it still is the High of 1.45508 that we could see higher.

The reason that this pattern repeats most of the time is that the pyschology of the traders repeats. The same patten is there from 6:00 EST to about 10:00 AM

Of course there is fundamental news that comes out and changes patterns however the pyscholgy repeats.

I will show you what to look for now until 10:00 AM so you can follow it as well live.

The bottom line is that the charts are showing patterns and these patterns cause certain traders to think they repeat in a shorter time frame.

We had many important factors overnight. They will filter in once New York opens at 9:30 AM when the Stock markets cause the real money flow. The stock markets opening at 3:00 AM do the same for the 3:00 AM to 6:00 AM pattern.

If it is still not clear ask a follow up question however the best way to learn is watch for yourself the pattern that I suggest you can see most overnight and morning periods.

If the Dow futures stat positive and Europe moves with it then odds are EUR/USD will move up unless the Dow futures turn down because of new negative data. The position of USD/JPY also might have an effect if it tests 76.00 and we see INTERVENTION however they first need to confirm their new PM. Then there is the mess in Europe now far from over and evolving by the second.

PERCEPTIONS are the reality until REALITY changes perceptions.
  • #531,989
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:47am Aug 29, 2011 5:47am
Eyes on 1,447x
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #531,990
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:49am Aug 29, 2011 5:49am
Quoting johncen
Euro half out 26+ half still in BE...
aussie out +5...waiting for better entry
nice bro
green pips is green pips
did you get cable at 64 mine still at BE 6403 all f&(*&(K night
eu 4496 was 1st fence entry 4536 sl BE
au is mid trade zone, possible at top ugly bear flag otherwise do stuff all so far

Good you pb bro its been a tough night, I wait USA now,
I only pb 1 early today, to cover 3 other trade, levels been behave all day night, but little pips, many BE

Trade safe
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #531,991
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:50am Aug 29, 2011 5:50am
hello, i'm creating a little app to analyse cot report (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=311858).

all of your suggestions are welcome.
  • #531,992
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:53am Aug 29, 2011 5:53am
small scalp 4504 tp 4515
looking for investors . pm me
  • #531,993
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:54am Aug 29, 2011 5:54am
Quoting KiwiTrada
nice bro
green pips is green pips
did you get cable at 64 mine still at BE 6403 all f&(*&(K night
eu 4496 was 1st fence entry 4536 sl BE
au is mid trade zone, possible at top ugly bear flag otherwise do stuff all so far

Good you pb bro its been a tough night, I wait USA now,
I only pb 1 early today, to cover 3 other trade, levels been behave all day night, but little pips, many BE

Trade safe
~thanks bro..
my entry 4530....wasnt too good but still green pips pocket... i m happy with it...
nah...a bit nervous to do cable since last one failed and waiting for more triggers...
Aussie too...we are hanging there..I want some more triggers before i enter another short....

I know..without london...tough night so far....
but BE still good trade bro!

any ideas about Aussie?~~
hows 0640 sounds to you?~~
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #531,994
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:55am Aug 29, 2011 5:55am
Quoting SirGoodman
There are two groups of traders in forex for this example. The retail trade which includes most of Forex Factory and similar sites. Then there are the traders that work for large institutions.

The patten that I speak about is caused by most of the retail traders and unfortunately for them most of the people that lose trading forex.

Let us look at last night being Sunday and since the pyschology was still there from the move on Friday that 1.4325 to 1.4500 in just three hours meant that EUR/USD might go over 1.4550 and it still might however...
I just read this analysis from BFK Forex Advisor and it makes the point that I was trying to make about PERCEPTIONS and REALITIES.

The trade desks have more tools and information to understand realities so when they arrive for work they can change directions quickly by the new order flow.

Here is the analysis.

Trade The Story Not The News



This week the German IFO survey printed worse than forecast indicating that economic activity in EZ largest and most important economy was slowing markedly. The EUR/USD however did not tumble in the wake of the report, but instead made a fierce turnaround and proceeded to rally for about 100 points into North American trade.

I've often made the point that when you have a conflict between news and price it is always better to go with the price signal. If data is negative but the currency rallies it is better to be long and vice versa if data is positive but the currency falls its better to be short. Many of you have written me notes of thanks for that setup after you put it into practice in your own accounts.

The news/price divergence is a neat setup but I am afraid that it may teach the wrong lesson. I've heard thousands of traders tell me, "News doesn't matter!" In the narrowest sense of the word that's absolutely true. News does not matter. What matters is the story. Contrary to the popular perception of many traders, the market does not move because a moving average on some random chart was broken to the upside or the downside. The market doesn't care about Fibonacci retracements, pivot points, head and shoulder patterns and all the other artificial tools that we superimpose on charts.

The market only cares about the story of the moment. Understand the story and you understand the trade. But that's much harder to do than it appears. The German IFO report for example showed that the data was weak, but market rumors before the event anticipated an even worse reading, so that when it printed the news was actually a relief and prices turned up as the story actually became positive while the news itself was negative.

Trying to figure out the story is what I do every day when I post on Twitter. Sometimes the story is obvious as it was with USD./CHF on Friday after Bernanke did not propose any new easing and the pair verticalized by 200 points. Sometime the story only become obvious in retrospect. In either case you cannot take it personally and you certainly cannot become attached to a point of view. When you are trading currencies on an intraday basis you job is to figure out the opinion of the market, because that's the only opinion that matters. That's why you need to trade the story not the news.

  • #531,995
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:59am Aug 29, 2011 5:59am
today will be the day whereby EU will have a big fall!!!!!!!!!!!!! get rdy for the huge drop even though it's a bank holiday
I have past history of statements to justify what i say.
  • #531,996
  • Aug 29, 2011 6:02am Aug 29, 2011 6:02am
Quoting eu_trader
today will be the day whereby EU will have a big fall!!!!!!!!!!!!! get rdy for the huge drop even though it's a bank holiday
be ready for bounce
looking for investors . pm me
  • #531,997
  • Aug 29, 2011 6:04am Aug 29, 2011 6:04am
Quoting kbmoonshinex
be ready for bounce
Every one says about eu bounce, but it will all depend on news from usa after 25 mins
  • #531,998
  • Aug 29, 2011 6:05am Aug 29, 2011 6:05am
4515. closed.
looking for investors . pm me
  • #531,999
  • Aug 29, 2011 6:06am Aug 29, 2011 6:06am
Quoting eu_trader
today will be the day whereby EU will have a big fall!!!!!!!!!!!!! get rdy for the huge drop even though it's a bank holiday
wow, big fall?
  • #532,000
  • Aug 29, 2011 6:14am Aug 29, 2011 6:14am
Quoting johncen
~thanks bro..
my entry 4530....wasnt too good but still green pips pocket... i m happy with it...
nah...a bit nervous to do cable since last one failed and waiting for more triggers...
Aussie too...we are hanging there..I want some more triggers before i enter another short....

I know..without london...tough night so far....
but BE still good trade bro!

any ideas about Aussie?~~
hows 0640 sounds to you?~~
Bro AU is a tough one, 4hr hugging top of ascending chann almost blu tack job, if or when she fall will be hard, many not like sell her, i not mind go to daily is build ugly bear flag, my next defend resist is 1.07 couple minor levels before then but I target there
Maybe watch 4hr for roll off utl channel, she can walk about tho so is tough call at moment, I like you need more triggers lower tf, dickhead speak tonight, sneeze and market go crazy
Is boring, i wait NY, might get early night, 5hr drive tomorrow see surgeon then 5hrdrive home
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
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