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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,421
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:04am Aug 29, 2011 2:04am
Quoting fosking
Here is the open positions for FXCM retail accounts.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 6.91 as nearly 87% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.47 as 85% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 6.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.1% lower than yesterday and 1.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 3.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY...
I remember seeing SSI reports from FXCM so many years ago. Before I knew how to trade I thought if everyone else is long, I should go long, so i bought the usd/cad at 1.03 then a few days later i bought in more at 1.02 and more at 1.01 and then FXCM said that this is historic amount of long positions on the usd/cad. SO i went all in long with the rest of my money, that day i was margin called so fat cuz usd/cad spiked down to parity then after a while it went back up.... >_<
  • #26,422
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:19am Aug 29, 2011 2:19am
Quoting MidasFX
I remember seeing SSI reports from FXCM so many years ago. Before I knew how to trade I thought if everyone else is long, I should go long, so i bought the usd/cad at 1.03 then a few days later i bought in more at 1.02 and more at 1.01 and then FXCM said that this is historic amount of long positions on the usd/cad. SO i went all in long with the rest of my money, that day i was margin called so fat cuz usd/cad spiked down to parity then after a while it went back up.... >_<
Ouch, we've all been there.
We need Paul Tudor Jones sign.

Attached Image
  • #26,423
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:27am Aug 29, 2011 2:27am
Looks to be carving out an inverse head and shoulders on the Futures.

Yen Futures H1
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  • #26,424
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:30am Aug 29, 2011 2:30am
Quoting MidasFX
I remember seeing SSI reports from FXCM so many years ago. Before I knew how to trade I thought if everyone else is long, I should go long, so i bought the usd/cad at 1.03 then a few days later i bought in more at 1.02 and more at 1.01 and then FXCM said that this is historic amount of long positions on the usd/cad. SO i went all in long with the rest of my money, that day i was margin called so fat cuz usd/cad spiked down to parity then after a while it went back up.... >_<
A lot of people swear by SSI reports but for me......I don't bother even looking at them. In the same way that I don't read what analysts think is going to happen and I don't read what 99.9% of posters here think is going to happen either. At the end of the day, it's my money on the line and I don't want a signal service to spend my money and I don't want other peoples opinions to spend my money either. I do my own TA, FA etc etc and make my decision where and when to trade.

It's better that way......then you learn how to trade. If you read all these analysts and other 'apparent' gurus reports as to what they think will happen.....including SSI reports.....how are you ever going to learn how to trade????

For me, all that extra noise is distracting at best.....and at worst, it causes me to question my own analysis.

Row your own boat.....let others row theirs.......with very few exceptions.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,425
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:30am Aug 29, 2011 2:30am
Quoting Halifax
So I haven't been keeping up with BoJ and MoF announcements lately, but if they want to intervene in their currency it seems like today would be a good day

Wallstreet in lockdown from the hurricane, and UK holiday = low liquidity and easier to get the currency moving? And Noda is going to be the new prime minister..

So thoughts?
BOJ will not intervene. They have lost a nice chunck of market credibility. They should have been more proactive when they had the chance. Now the Swiss central bank has beaten them by a landslide, leaving the Jpy as the only currency safe haven. The Swiss were way more agressive resulting in a 14% surge since the low a few weeks ago !

Imo, the BOJ and MOF did too little too late !!!




  • #26,426
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:35am Aug 29, 2011 2:35am
UJ 4H,Beautiful
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,427
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:42am Aug 29, 2011 2:42am
Quoting realjumper
A lot of people swear by SSI reports but for me......I don't bother even looking at them. In the same way that I don't read what analysts think is going to happen and I don't read what 99.9% of posters here think is going to happen either. At the end of the day, it's my money on the line and I don't want a signal service to spend my money and I don't want other peoples opinions to spend my money either. I do my own TA, FA etc etc and make my decision where and when to trade.

It's better that way......then you learn how to trade. If you read all...
Very true, never follow anyone of a forum.
Although I wouldn't put analysts on the same level as an SSI report.
Analysts say what they think will happen. SSI states what is happening.

This is the latest chart I can find from FXCM and it's for GBP/USD.
SSI
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  • #26,428
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:46am Aug 29, 2011 2:46am
Quoting SIgurs
BOJ will not intervene. They have lost a nice chunck of market credibility. They should have been more proactive when they had the chance. Now the Swiss central bank has beaten them by a landslide, leaving the Jpy as the only currency safe haven. The Swiss were way more agressive resulting in a 14% surge since the low a few weeks ago !

Imo, the BOJ and MOF did too little too late !!!




Seem that you are desperately hoping BOJ intervene ?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,429
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:51am Aug 29, 2011 2:51am
Quoting Demon Bane
75.30/50 should be tested before any upswing....
Maybe Yes,But When should we short ? Now ?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,430
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:57am Aug 29, 2011 2:57am
Now Noda will be watching the price more closely from a higher position
  • #26,431
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:59am Aug 29, 2011 2:59am
Quoting FXMindset
Seem that you are desperately hoping BOJ intervene ?
Just a simple observation. Those holding long hoping for a BOJ miracle are, imo, very naive.
  • #26,432
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:09am Aug 29, 2011 3:09am
Quoting SIgurs
Just a simple observation. Those holding long hoping for a BOJ miracle are, imo, very naive.
You can called them naive if they hold long without protection but some of them holding long with very small position also and I dont think they are naive my friends
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,433
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:12am Aug 29, 2011 3:12am
Noda the Eagle?

Quoting Abouelzelouf
Now Noda will be watching the price more closely from a higher position
  • #26,434
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:14am Aug 29, 2011 3:14am
hehehhe

Quoting Abouelzelouf
Now Noda will be watching the price more closely from a higher position
  • #26,435
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:15am Aug 29, 2011 3:15am
Quoting FXMindset
You can called them naive if they hold long without protection but some of them holding long with very small position also and I dont think they are naive my friends
nobody knows I would say trade the charts maybe you get intervention for free.
76.30 for UJ and 73.50 for USDX are my POI's
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,436
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:17am Aug 29, 2011 3:17am
Quoting USD-Bear
73.50 for USDX are my POI's
This is what I'm looking at too.
  • #26,437
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:17am Aug 29, 2011 3:17am
Quoting USD-Bear
nobody knows I would say trade the charts maybe you get intervention for free.
76.30 for UJ and 73.50 for USDX are my POI's
Yeah Treat the intervention as your bonus
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,438
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:18am Aug 29, 2011 3:18am
Quoting FXMindset
You can called them naive if they hold long without protection but some of them holding long with very small position also and I dont think they are naive my friends
Nothing wrong with holding a long position as long as it's based on analysis. Holding based on intervention rumors IS naive and dumb.
  • #26,439
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:23am Aug 29, 2011 3:23am
Quoting SIgurs
Nothing wrong with holding a long position as long as it's based on analysis. Holding based on intervention rumors IS naive and dumb.
Wow,u are so cruel
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,440
  • Aug 29, 2011 4:19am Aug 29, 2011 4:19am
people should trade wisely and get into position according to the size of their account, if they want to trade long long time frame usd/jpy. and as soon as they can have a good safe stoploss they should put it.
stop loss is a must with jpy.
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