EURUSD

1st 983pips , 2nd 630pips , 3rd 747 pips ,4rth 491pips this 5th may average all =713.250 pips or anything near it may be huge down as all the sells were not progressively smaller than previous and though eu progressively weaker to have reverse at lower levels .
fontu

hmm, interesting observation, what is your longer term wave count?

Short @ 1.4491 Target 1.4420. We will probably go up and test 1.4537, maybe reach 1.46 but a retrace from Friday is very likely

The normally bullish staff at economy.com gave us this rather dismal paragraph tonight as a summary to the week:

“The last week of the summer brings a rare Northeast hurricane and a heavy load of data that will show the economy running close to stall speed. Second quarter GDP was revised down to 1%, and the slight improvement in growth we expect for this quarter assumes no new financial shocks. Upcoming indicators for August will bear the mark of steep declines in stock prices. The employment report will be the headliner; nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise just 30,000, and the unemployment rate likely will tick up 0.1 percentage point to 9.3%.

We think the ISM manufacturing survey dipped into contraction territory for the first time in two years, and auto sales and consumer confidence likely also fell during the month. There will also be significant interest in the minutes of the August Federal Open Market Committee meeting, especially given Chairman Ben Bernanke's omission of details regarding policy easing options in his Jackson Hole speech.”

Ugh. More on the Bernank later.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment number was just awful. It dropped 8 full points (which is huge for this index) to 55.7. The index has fallen nearly 20 points in three months. In the chart below, note the close previous correlation between sentiment and GDP. Which do you think is more likely to happen: sentiment to rise or GDP to fall?

And now for the Euro's problems From John Maudlin (No Link) It came in my email.

In trying to decipher Europe it is hard to know where to start, but let’s begin with some assumptions:
For the euro to survive, one of two things must happen. Either the Germans (and the Dutch and Finns and French) decide to back the concept of some sort of eurobond financing of the balance sheets of the peripheral countries, OR there need to be massive write-downs of insolvent-country debt and the various countries need to backstop their banks, because bank losses will be massive.
The former needs buy-in from German voters. Polls show Germans are against the idea of eurobonds by something like 5-1 (75% against, 15% for). (More on Germany below.) The latter option assumes the peripheral countries will lose access to the private bond markets, thus forcing sudden and enormous austerity (read Depression levels or worse). Will they simply throw in the towel and leave the euro on their own, remaining in the free-trade zone but with their own currencies, much as Denmark, the Czech Republic, or Sweden are now? Or opt to suffer and remain in the euro?
Germany could decide not to back the peripheral country debt, and leave the Eurozone. But this would be painful for Germans. If you think the Swiss franc trade is crowded (and way overvalued) because people are looking for a safe haven, what would a new Deutschmark look like to investors? Switzerland is a country (and one of my favorite in the world, so no slight intended – I will be in Geneva for my birthday in October) of just over 7 million people, only somewhat larger than the population of the greater Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas area where I live (although with much better weather!).
Germany, on the other hand, is the world’s 4th largest country by GDP, with a population of over 82 million. It is well-run and respected. The new mark would climb to far higher levels against the remaining euro countries and other currencies, which for an export-driven nation would not be very helpful. Mercedes and BMWs cost a lot now (and don’t forget tool parts and other things Germany excels in making). Double the value of your currency in a short time? Watch your market share drop. Painful is perhaps an inadequate word.
So, what to make of the remarks this week by respected German leaders? Let’s fire up a few quotes here ( http://www.telegraph.co.uk/ finance/financialcrisis/ 8720792/Germany-fires-cannon- shot-across-Europes-bows.html) :
“German President Christian Wulff has accused the European Central Bank of violating its treaty mandate with the mass purchase of southern European bonds. In a cannon shot across Europe’s bows, he warned that Germany is reaching bailout exhaustion and cannot allow its own democracy to be undermined by EU mayhem.

No longer term counts in mofu play( nothing may work here except smaller waves , counts ) with still longer term bullish but if wants a new low replacing previous C then may be possible . so will want bull again again to have a confirm failure to think that low as disaster not unlikely happen next month with widespread turmoils all over the world.
and if you see my gu analysis today , there lies serious question if eu may able bull longer term so soon.

the last picture was not proper one , see now how it exhausting at lower levels , bull .
fontu

Question for all thinktanks and resident gurus. If a broker counter deals a traders trade, how does price move up or down?

p = x + y

so if trader buys 10 lots, dealer sells 10; p = 10+(-10) = 0. Price stays stationary. Surely its the big guys - hedge firms, banks, institutes that have the power to affect the market than the individual traders combined?

yes fontu, thankyou for your analysis...

If I can add to your post that seems to me quite logical something from my side - US dollar index monthly is bearish, weekly is bearish, daily is bearish,we are nearing the month end, so I also do not consider the Friday´s move up as a fake one.

hello all
im not used to post in this thread a lot.
i spent some time to read all weekend post..

whole ideas are very interesting and i find me in agree with both sides of 'discussion':
in few words i think if it will go up to 1.50, need to move into 45's then consolidate again this 4250 or 4350 levels.

i pick my trades giving a look at main direction and levels, and wait confirmation on faster TF.
so, if the move to 1.45 was a 'fake', it will first reverse on m1, then in m5, then m15 etc... until also the weekly candle will close below and into the blue pattern again

The Upcoming Week In Forex

EUR/USD hit 1.4327 on Thursday, the weekly low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.4498 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 0.82% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.4327, Thursday’s low and a four-day low and resistance at 1.4577, the high of July 4.

In a speech at the central bank’s annual retreat at Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday, Bernanke said the bank remained ready to conduct a third bond buying program in order to bolster the faltering U.S. economy, but stopped short of outlining when and if this may happen.

Bernanke said that the bank’s September policy-setting meeting would run for two days instead of one, in order to “allow a fuller discussion” of the economic outlook.

The euro had weakened against the greenback in the run-up to Friday’s speech as uncertainty over whether the Fed intended to implement a third round of quantitative easing weighed.

Also Friday, the Commerce Department said the U.S. economy expanded more slowly than forecast in the second quarter, as higher fuel prices, poor weather conditions and disruptions to manufacturing activity from the March earthquake in Japan weighed.

Gross domestic product rose by 1%, disappointing expectations for an expansion of 1.1%. The Commerce Department had originally estimated GDP growth of 1.3% in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, the single currency remained supported against its major counterparts, despite fears that the region’s debt crisis was deepening as the European Central Bank continued buying Spanish and Italian government debt, maintaining borrowing costs at sustainable levels, preventing contagion to core euro zone economies.

Earlier in the week, data showed that manufacturing activity in Germany and in the 17-nation euro zone didn’t slow as much as initially expected in July.

The euro zone’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.7 from 50.4 in July. Economists had forecast a reading of 49.5. The region’s services PMI slipped to 51.5 from 51.6 in July, holding above forecasts for a reading of 50.7.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 52.0 in August, beating forecasts for a decline to 50.8.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching Friday’s data on U.S. non-farm payrolls for signs that the nation’s economic recovery is gaining traction.

Also next week, the U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to publish its index of manufacturing activity for August, while European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is to testify on the region’s debt crisis in Brussels.

Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 29

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. Later in the day, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is appearing before the European Parliament's Economic Committee in Brussels, to testify on the region’s debt crisis.

Also Monday, the U.S. is to produce industry data on pending home sales, a leading indicator of health in the housing market. The nation is also to release official data on personal income and expenditure and consumer prices.

Tuesday, August 30

The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending, as well as an industry report on house price inflation. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting.

Wednesday, August 31

In the euro zone, Germany is to release official data on retail sales and employment change, leading indicators of economic health. The single currency bloc is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation and the unemployment rate.

In the U.S., payroll processing firm ADP is to release a report on non-farm payrolls, which leads government data by two days. The U.S. is also to publish data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area, factory orders and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, September 1

The U.S. is to publish its closely watched weekly report on initial jobless claims, while the ISM is to produce data on manufacturing sector growth.

Friday, September 2

The U.S. is to round up the week with a government report on private sector job creation, a key indicator of overall economic health. The country is also to publish official data on the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, an important inflationary indicator.

We'll know all we need to know soon...once we arrive around 1,4520-3x area...
A reversal here should bring us to 1,4200....a continuation should lead us to 1,4650 as a first step then 1,4800

Time will tell this week

Senior members please do not sow disinformation here. well you understand what's happening. Give please the ways to learn from you.

see you tomorrow.

Entered short at 4500, SL 4545, TP 4420. I'll go short again from higher if my stop loss is hit.

GAP fill....? let mrkt decide


aligater

a likely analysis... but do you think that the hurricane will have a big impact on the market?

New week started
Let's The fun begin
Already IN

I left some bags on Friday...bro




aligator

the market open at 6:00 ET, your broker open earlier ?

If gap exist I watch good rr

As for the dollar, the pennant may well be a sign of strength, as the Federal Reserve has been trying mightily to push the USD to a new low while propping up the euro at 1.44.


The basic reason is that a weakening dollar is the primary engine of U.S. corporate profits, as I explained in About Those Permanently Rising Corporate Profits... (August 12, 2011). If the Fed is unable to suppress the dollar via propping up the euro, then the entire stock market rally built on a falling dollar will collapse is a heap, shattering Wall Street's PR of permanently rising corporate profits.


http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2011/USD8-27a.gif


As noted in that entry, the euro and the dollar (as measured by the DXY index of weighted currencies) are on a see-saw; if the euro breaks down as a result of the eurozone's irreversable structural dilemmas, then the dollar will strengthen and the Fed's master plan of pushing stocks up via a weakening dollar will have failed.


We have no idea how much treasure is being thrown into the fire to maintain the euro at 1.44 to the dollar, and that is the "news" which we must not be allowed to know, lest the extreme vulnerability of the eurozone financial Status Quo and the global rally were reflected in the foreign exchange and stock markets.


Being completely out of the news cycle is a blessing, in more ways than one: not only is one's mind untwisted by propaganda passing as "news," one is free to look at charts without the carefully designed biases implicit in the "news."

I am working my way through 400 unread emails and also unpacking and cleaning camping gear. Your patience and understanding are greatly appreciated.


http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com...8oftwominds%29