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Nb 10.0 trend trading system

  • #221
  • Aug 27, 2011 8:30pm Aug 27, 2011 8:30pm
TP (take profit) can be based on so many factors.


1. Time of day. Jpy session gives smaller profits than the Euro. USA gives the biggest normally.
2. Day of the week. Monday and Tuesday are usually the least volatile. Thursday the most volatile.
3. What is moving price. Is it a news story, normal market, fundamentals (like interest rate change)
4. What pair are you trading. eur/jpy moves in all sessions. Cad only during the USA session. Aud or Nzd can move during their session
5. Are you counter trading or trend trading. Counter you grab and run trend you may want to hang in there.
6. Is the market ranging or trending? Range trading you grab your profit before price goes back to 0.
7. Time of year. Prices move less during the summer than they do in the fall or spring.
8. Holidays, price can be stagnant on major holidays.
9. Price ranges 70-80% of the time so that profit may not stay there.
10. Weekly candles tend to be full bodied. Trades started early in the week you may want to hang on longer than the end of the week.
11. Time frame, obviously the higher the TF the longer you probably will wait on a trade.
12. Take profit for me usually is when the STO line hits the other side of the indicator. Sometimes I go to lower TF and use some kind of MA cross.
13. Currency pair. The gbp/jpy will offer bigger profits than the eur/gbp

To me the most discouraging thing in trading is seeing a 50-100 pips profit evaporate. That does more damage to my psyche than taking a loss. So the vast majority of my profit is 30-70 pips. My average is 53 pips in August. The reason I like trading a lot of pairs is so I dont have to worry about it. Somewhere, someplace, some currency is going to take profit that day. I do that every day and sooner or later it all adds up.
  • #222
  • Aug 27, 2011 8:53pm Aug 27, 2011 8:53pm
15% of China GDP is from real estate construction. They are now reporting they have successfully cooled things down since prices on real estate have stabilized. They also are slowing down construction some to keep the market from over heating again. What that means fundamentally is expect the AUD and NZD to start coming down. I would be very very careful of doing buys on either pair, especially the AUD. I am not so sure how much China's economy will affect NZD because they get far less earth based commodities from NZD but they import more in food and manufactured products from NZ.
  • #223
  • Aug 27, 2011 8:55pm Aug 27, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting nanningbob
TP (take profit) can be based on so many factors.


1. Time of day. Jpy session gives smaller profits than the Euro. USA gives the biggest normally.
2. Day of the week. Monday and Tuesday are usually the least volatile. Thursday the most volatile.
3. What is moving price. Is it a news story, normal market, fundamentals (like interest rate change)
4. What pair are you trading. eur/jpy moves in all sessions. Cad only during the USA session. Aud or Nzd can move during their session
5. Are you counter trading or trend trading. Counter you grab and run...
Thanks for your insights NB. I'll try and assimilate.
  • #224
  • Aug 27, 2011 10:34pm Aug 27, 2011 10:34pm
Quoting nanningbob
15% of China GDP is from real estate construction. They are now reporting they have successfully cooled things down since prices on real estate have stabilized. They also are slowing down construction some to keep the market from over heating again. What that means fundamentally is expect the AUD and NZD to start coming down. I would be very very careful of doing buys on either pair, especially the AUD. I am not so sure how much China's economy will affect NZD because they get far less earth based commodities from NZD but they import more in food...
as smart as the political elite think they are at managing the economy in China, their property market will not avoid the laws of gravity.. the mother of all bubbles, us in Australia will go from one of the strongest through the GFC to another weak western nation, private debt and ponsi housing is rife throughout Australia and is not just concentrated in sub prime
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #225
  • Aug 27, 2011 11:31pm Aug 27, 2011 11:31pm
Quoting whitegoodman
as smart as the political elite think they are at managing the economy in China, their property market will not avoid the laws of gravity.. the mother of all bubbles, us in Australia will go from one of the strongest through the GFC to another weak western nation, private debt and ponsi housing is rife throughout Australia and is not just concentrated in sub prime
It is too bad politicians arent trained in basic economics. Australia has had several years of saving up for rainy days. I dont know if they did or not but some body should have realized the China buy buy buy would not go on forever. I dont know how much China will be cutting back and how much that will affect you totally but I think it will affect you over the coming year at least if not more. Good luck down there, we in the USA are just starting, maybe tongue in cheek here, that we just cant keep borrowing borrowing borrowing. Government cost control needs to be instituted over a period of time and brought back to reason. I think the American people may finally have the political will to do it. We will see. If not, wonder if NZ would be a good place to buy a small farm, raise some animals and grow my own food.
  • #226
  • Aug 28, 2011 8:03am Aug 28, 2011 8:03am
OK here are my choices for Monday. I am going with the GBP to sell off this week and trend downward and the CHF also to depreciate so:

reenter trend with 1H sell EA:
gbp/aud
gbp/jpy
gbp/nzd

reenter trend with 1H buy EA:
aud/chf
usd/chf even thought the low is touching I am going to go with the fundamental that the CHF has finally succeeded in convincing people it needs to depreciate for a while.

I am not sure about the eur/chf (dont want to get caught on a buy with the euro.
I will watch the gbp/chf and see if chf can beat the gbp on who will depreciate more.

Range trade the 1H CTR on sells
eur/usd
eur/jpy

IO sell
eur/cad
eur/nzd

That is 9 trades and two to watch. Let you know how it is going later in the week.
  • #227
  • Aug 28, 2011 8:30am Aug 28, 2011 8:30am
Mark your calendars for Sept. 7th. If Germany's high court decides bailouts to other countries through the Euro union is unconstitutional expect all hell to break loose. Without German backing Euro's debt load, it will have no takers and then ............... sell the Euro. Dont get involved in any buys on the euro at this time. If Germany will back the loans then the Euro will be stable for now. If they dont ..................

“The blistering attack follows equally harsh words by the Bundesbank in its monthly report. The bank slammed the ECB’s bond purchases and also warned that the EU’s broader bail-out machinery violates EU treaties and lacks ‘democratic legitimacy’. The combined attacks come just two weeks before the German constitutional court rules on the legality of the various bailout policies. The verdict is expected on September 7.”

“From the same report this chart illustrates how Germany could become the banker for the Euro Zone. The question is will it? The question will be more clearly defined in September when Germany’s Constitutional Court will rule on the legal complaints against the Euro Zone rescue packages. If the comments being made by the Bundesbank and by the country’s President are a hint as to the outcome of the court then a negative ruling is a real risk. Who then will take the losses?” (Simon Hunt)
Note in the chart that Germany holds the largest percentage of net debt.
  • #228
  • Aug 28, 2011 8:33am Aug 28, 2011 8:33am
Quoting nanningbob
OK here are my choices for Monday...
Hi Bob

Tomorrow is a public holiday in England so GBP may have lower volume of trade than usual.

I know you use S/R levels when making decisions but I was wondering if you had ever considered formally incorporating some sort of S/R, Pivots, etc, into the system. The sixths was a loose S/R but not a strong or reliable indicator for this purpose.

Kind regards
  • #229
  • Aug 28, 2011 8:44am Aug 28, 2011 8:44am
Hi Nanningbob,

Please let me repeat my question from the range trading thread - anyway, I think this question is related to all threads as it's a basic question on the "heart" of 10.0.

Suppose the market is ranging, and we entered a CTR BUY trade. after a few hours/days, the price closed outside one lower MA, and start to declined.
Or the opposite scenario - Suppose the market is in UT, and we entered a BUY trade. after a few hours/days, the price closed inside MA's, and start to range.

Now, according to your booklets, once the market changed, we should immediately change our trading style to the new condition. So, in the first example, we actually need to close the loosing trade and execute any SELL EA. But time and time again, I see that you prefer to flow with the new trend (DT in this example) and try to recover. So what is the "right" way?

I'll give you a concrete example with the eurcad. I wend into SELL on 1.4175, due to DAILY O.I EA (it could be CTR EA also). Now the market changed to UT. I can wait patiently for recovery, or close the loosing trade and try to reenter the UT. What should be done according to 10.0?

Thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.jpg Size: 177 KB
  • #230
  • Edited 9:21am Aug 28, 2011 9:04am | Edited 9:21am
Quoting yaniv_av
...What should be done according to 10.0?
Yani

I am sure Bob will reply to you in due course. However, I do not think that Bob says that once we have a change of trend we should close all existing trades and go with the new trend. Anyhow, nothing is absolute and what is shown as the end of one trend and start of a new trend may be a false or temporary signal (unless backed by strong fundamentals). Moreover, in NB systems SL is not used, instead recovery is used. That is why Bob uses recovery for an existing trade despite a change in the trend. I hope this helps.

Kings Regards
PS. I just seen your chart. according to the chart the market is in RANGE, not UT. I suggest you read the documents in detail to ensure you have a good understanding of the concepts.
  • #231
  • Edited 9:43am Aug 28, 2011 9:28am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting yaniv_av
Hi Nanningbob,

Please let me repeat my question from the range trading thread - anyway, I think this question is related to all threads as it's a basic question on the "heart" of 10.0.

Suppose the market is ranging, and we entered a CTR BUY trade. after a few hours/days, the price closed outside one lower MA, and start to declined.
Or the opposite scenario - Suppose the market is in UT, and we entered a BUY trade. after a few hours/days, the price closed inside MA's, and start to range.

Now, according to your booklets, once the market changed,...
It depends on the kind of traders you are. I recovery trade and dont use SL unless I have a real compelling reason to do so. For example you have a EURO buy and the German court declares buying Euro bond debt unconstitutional. I would know to get out and close and take my loss. You have a eur/cad sell trade. I would just sit on that thing and let it ride, the short and long term fundamentals are on your side. If you took a 1H CTR trade when the bottom or low hit the line you would have been out of any losing trade by now and probably taken several profit trades. Let us take a look. Daily pic or eur/cad showing it has been ranging for the last 2 weeks and using the 1H CTR Sell. When the low is lower than the MA line and the high above you are in a range trade area. See the blue.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur cad daily.gif Size: 45 KB
  • #232
  • Aug 28, 2011 9:34am Aug 28, 2011 9:34am
You sell toward the red line in range trading. Days 1-4 and 4-8 seen below, green arrows show entrances.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: days 1-4.gif Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: days 4-8.gif Size: 55 KB
  • #233
  • Aug 28, 2011 9:35am Aug 28, 2011 9:35am
Here are days 8-14. There are around 13-15 trades that the EA would have taken in the last two weeks. Profit ranges from 35 to over 100 pips. Would be a dang good run. Too bad I didnt have this pair on my range list or my charts. You had many chances to take a counter trade and wipe out any DD of your original IO trade or price retraced enough you could have been a BE. I see absolutely no reason to take a loss on the EUR/CAD but lots of chances or TP on many trades. I was not trading this pair at this time except for the one I did take last week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: days 8-14.gif Size: 57 KB
  • #234
  • Aug 28, 2011 9:48am Aug 28, 2011 9:48am
Quoting yaniv_av
Hi Nanningbob,

Please let me repeat my question from the range trading thread - anyway, I think this question is related to all threads as it's a basic question on the "heart" of 10.0.

Suppose the market is ranging, and we entered a CTR BUY trade. after a few hours/days, the price closed outside one lower MA, and start to declined.
Or the opposite scenario - Suppose the market is in UT, and we entered a BUY trade. after a few hours/days, the price closed inside MA's, and start to range.

Now, according to your booklets, once the market changed,...
You keep assuming eur/cad is in an UT but it is ranging with a slight UT movement. The last two weeks have called for you to range trade sell this pair. The high is above the MA line and the Low is below. that is range trading. You seem so concerned about your SL. Trade a sell CTR towards the red line and your in profit. So no SL.
  • #235
  • Aug 28, 2011 10:03am Aug 28, 2011 10:03am
Quoting astral77
Hi Bob

Tomorrow is a public holiday in England so GBP may have lower volume of trade than usual.

I know you use S/R levels when making decisions but I was wondering if you had ever considered formally incorporating some sort of S/R, Pivots, etc, into the system. The sixths was a loose S/R but not a strong or reliable indicator for this purpose.

Kind regards
I try to keep the system as simple and basic as possible. Does not mean you can t add what you are comfortable with. S/R are really good ways to use this system with. I saved my gbp/cad recovery when price kept bouncing off of its 3 year highs. I just kept entering at that resistance point and go myself 4 nice trades off the top of that thing. Finally price broke and it is on its way back down. What was nice is the 1H CTR was also entering right at that point. I took two manual trades there also. So Use those daily or weekly S/R points and I find it interesting that often the 1H CTR seems to match those points.
  • #236
  • Aug 28, 2011 10:06am Aug 28, 2011 10:06am
Dang I am going to use the 1H ctr sell on the eur/cad. Prices on the euro may just range until that German court decision. But the Cad ................ dont know that is why I havent been trading it.
  • #237
  • Aug 28, 2011 10:49am Aug 28, 2011 10:49am
Quoting nanningbob
Here are days 8-14. There are around 13-15 trades that the EA would have taken in the last two weeks. Profit ranges from 35 to over 100 pips. Would be a dang good run. Too bad I didnt have this pair on my range list or my charts. You had many chances to take a counter trade and wipe out any DD of your original IO trade or price retraced enough you could have been a BE. I see absolutely no reason to take a loss on the EUR/CAD but lots of chances or TP on many trades. I was not trading this pair at this time except for the one I did take last week....
Well, I actually used the O.I, which run on daily, so I had only one entry.
Now I understand I should have run the 1H/4H CTR also. I'll try to do this tomorrow.
Why actually one should prefer the O.I over the CRT? why not using always only the CTR? What is the advantage of the O.I?
  • #238
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:29am Aug 29, 2011 5:29am
I have coded a little indi to display the average daily volatility of a par, along with its swap. Details at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...37#post4909937

  • #239
  • Aug 29, 2011 6:38am Aug 29, 2011 6:38am
i don't understand why the EA doesn't open a short position here, can you help me?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #240
  • Aug 29, 2011 7:09am Aug 29, 2011 7:09am
Quoting huckcheever
i don't understand why the EA doesn't open a short position here, can you help me?

Attachment
probably ma high AND price weren't > bbhigh at the same time...it happens...
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