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  • #531,641
  • Aug 27, 2011 2:58pm Aug 27, 2011 2:58pm
Probable scenario for Sunday August 28 (and beyond) : The euro will touch 1.4440 first before moving up.

That sudden 175 pip move on Friday (from 1.4325 to 1.4500 in 3 hours) was way too powerful to be fake. Also note that the euro closed near the high of the day. On a Friday that's a strong signal. Short traders should proceed with caution...
  • #531,642
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:05pm Aug 27, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting jaylovin
whats your TP?
U got my PM bro
I don't like repeating and keep posting my view maybe that influence the newbie and i don't like
  • #531,643
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:07pm Aug 27, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting egkid
U got my PM bro
I don't like repeating and keep posting my view maybe that influence the newbie and i don't like
I sent you a PM as well.
  • #531,644
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:07pm Aug 27, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Probable scenario for Sunday August 28 (and beyond) : The euro will touch 1.4440 first before moving up.

That sudden 175 pip move on Friday (from 1.4325 to 1.4500 in 3 hours) was way too powerful to be fake. Also note that the euro closed near the high of the day. On a Friday that's a strong signal. Short traders should proceed with caution...
I think u will see Phoney wide range bar on Monday after hitting my TP
Already posted my next setup on Friday
  • #531,645
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:13pm Aug 27, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting bman204
I sent you a PM as well.
Sorry i just notice it, I sent u my reply bro
  • #531,646
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:18pm Aug 27, 2011 3:18pm
4FUN
Inserted Video
  • #531,647
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:22pm Aug 27, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting egkid
I think u will see Phoney wide range bar on Monday after hitting my TP
Well Egkid, if hurricane Irene knocks down the electric system in New York City tomorrow, trading the euro correctly would be the least of my problems

http://hamptonroads.com/storms

Good luck with that trade anyway.
  • #531,648
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:36pm Aug 27, 2011 3:36pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Probable scenario for Sunday August 28 (and beyond) : The euro will touch 1.4440 first before moving up.

That sudden 175 pip move on Friday (from 1.4325 to 1.4500 in 3 hours) was way too powerful to be fake. Also note that the euro closed near the high of the day. On a Friday that's a strong signal. Short traders should proceed with caution...
i agree... bank holiday in the UK on monday... but i don't disregard a retrace from 1.4517 or 1.4577... friday's buying was extreme.. my stochs on 15mins, h1. h4 and daily are all pointing up...
  • #531,649
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:39pm Aug 27, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Well Egkid, if hurricane Irene knocks down the electric system in New York City tomorrow, trading the euro correctly would be the least of my problems

http://hamptonroads.com/storms

Good luck with that trade anyway.
Sorry to hear that news but Hope everything will b fine bro
  • #531,650
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:44pm Aug 27, 2011 3:44pm
Quoting egkid
Sorry to hear that news but Hope everything will b fine bro

replied to your message buddy
  • #531,651
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:55pm Aug 27, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Probable scenario for Sunday August 28 (and beyond) : The euro will touch 1.4440 first before moving up.

That sudden 175 pip move on Friday (from 1.4325 to 1.4500 in 3 hours) was way too powerful to be fake. Also note that the euro closed near the high of the day. On a Friday that's a strong signal. Short traders should proceed with caution...

It must be good swing short then......

S.R
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #531,652
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:28pm Aug 27, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Probable scenario for Sunday August 28 (and beyond) : The euro will touch 1.4440 first before moving up.

That sudden 175 pip move on Friday (from 1.4325 to 1.4500 in 3 hours) was way too powerful to be fake. Also note that the euro closed near the high of the day. On a Friday that's a strong signal. Short traders should proceed with caution...
Your post caught my attention and I am very interested in understanding your logic on why the move from 1.4325 to 1.4500 in 3 hours was not fake.

Did you see that the Dow went from down 200 to up where it ended ?

Was the move in the Dow also too powerful to be fake ?

Do you think the markets are manipulated ?

I look forward to your reply.
  • #531,653
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:33pm Aug 27, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting SirGoodman
Your post caught my attention and I am very interested in understanding your logic on why the move from 1.4325 to 1.4500 in 3 hours was not fake.

Did you see that the Dow went from down 200 to up where it ended ?

Was the move in the Dow also too powerful to be fake ?

Do you think the markets are manipulated ?

I look forward to your reply.
why do you say the move was fake?
  • #531,654
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:41pm Aug 27, 2011 4:41pm
Quoting jaylovin
why do you say the move was fake?
This thread is about EUR/USD and when I posted my remarks I was replying to the comment made that the move by EUR/USD was too powerful to be fake. The move from 1.4325 to 1.4500.

My point is that the same logic applies to the movement in the Dow.

The move was real however if the Dow had gone down 500 instead of going up the odds are excellent that EUR/USD would be 1.4250 or less at the moment.

The EUR/USD moves NOT because of what the charts are saying. It moves around as money flows from one asset class to another.

I was just pointing out the real logic of the market. I hope I have answered your question.
  • #531,655
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:51pm Aug 27, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting SirGoodman
This thread is about EUR/USD and when I posted my remarks I was replying to the comment made that the move by EUR/USD was too powerful to be fake. The move from 1.4325 to 1.4500.

My point is that the same logic applies to the movement in the Dow.

The move was real however if the Dow had gone down 500 instead of going up the odds are excellent that EUR/USD would be 1.4250 or less at the moment.

The EUR/USD moves NOT because of what the charts are saying. It moves around as money flows from one asset class to another.

I was just pointing out...

hmm ok i misunderstood your post... if i am correct you agree that the jump in EU was a genuine move.. thanks for clarification
  • #531,656
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:57pm Aug 27, 2011 4:57pm
Quoting SirGoodman
Your post caught my attention and I am very interested in understanding your logic on why the move from 1.4325 to 1.4500 in 3 hours was not fake.
Well, here are the two main reasons why I believe the Friday euro move was not a fake:

1: The (up) move was quick, strong, with virtually no pullback. This is not one of those "fake" moves that quickly run out of steam, immediately reverse direction and trap the traders.

2: More importantly, the euro closed near the high of the day, with almost zero profit taking activity, as you can see on the chart. That means the long traders were not afraid to let their long positions open over the weekend and that is indeed a strong commitment and a powerful vote of confidence on their part. This also indicates a lot of buying power and interest.


Quoting SirGoodman
Do you think the markets are manipulated ?
Yes, especially during the relatively illiquid Asian session and early London session, when some market makers are busy hunting stops...
  • #531,657
  • Aug 27, 2011 5:16pm Aug 27, 2011 5:16pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Well, here are the two main reasons why I believe the Friday euro move was not a fake:

1: The (up) move was quick, strong, with virtually no pullback. This is not one of those "fake" moves that quickly runs out of steam, immediately reverses direction and traps the traders.

2: More importantly, the euro closed near the high of the day, with almost zero profit taking activity, as you can see on the chart. That means the long traders were not afraid to let their long positions open over the weekend and that is indeed a strong commitment and...
I have learned how to trade by understanding all the issues in trading forex.

I can tell you 100% why EUR/USD moved up from 1.4325 to 1.4500 where I shorted it and closed before the weekend.

This is not meant to prove myself smarter than you. Your point of view is respected and listened to.

The market is always right with no exceptions.

However the market is also about perceptions and reality.

I would state clearly that the perception by the masses is that we will see Dow 12,000 again before we see Dow 7000 again.

We will see Dow 9000 again before we see Dow 13,000 again. Of course that is my CALL and I could be wrong.

Now to the real explanation of why EUR/USD tested 1.4500 and might end up at 1.4200 or less by Friday September 2, 2011.

The following are asset classes;

Gold
US Bonds
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
GBP/USD

Oil, Corn, Wheat and on we go.

Everytime the Dow goes up 500 or down 500 the money in the various asset classes move around.

The movement of USD/JPY causes a change in EUR/JPY

That then changes EUR/USD

I think you get my point of view and in fact there is no mystery here.

When the Dow goes down money looks for a safe haven.

Even with the downgrade to AA status money stills flows to the US Dollar and then the US Bonds even though the yield is almost nothing.

Why has Gold moved over $1800 and why will it go over $2000 this year ?

I can answer any question that you may have as this is not meant to be a debate however a discussion without emotion or ego.
  • #531,658
  • Aug 27, 2011 5:19pm Aug 27, 2011 5:19pm
A lot of traders, especially new ones, put a lot of trust in indicators thinking that prices would go and go directly to where the indicators say they should. A lot of traders believe that indicators can forecast the limits of behaviour. Traders believe that indicators can tell them what is reasonable or what is predictable based on the past.

The market as a whole is not reasonable; prices are set by traders, traders are impressionable and imitative, they are herd animals and follow the crowd either up or down, identifying the direction of the crowd is key; follow the dust trail, the noise of the stampede.

Prices and spreads vary they are not an arithmatic concept and fluctuate based on the societies they represent, Euro, USD, JPY etc.

Uncertainty is an indefinite condition, it does not follow indicators, it cannot be calculated.

A good dose of self doubt and perspective needs to check the indicators and what it is telling us before a trade is placed.

Even when traders get things right, prices cannot be expected to oscillate with precision of Elliott Waves or follow fib or trend lines precisely.

Today's prices cannot be inferred by yesterday's trend and data alone; trading should be a "whole" concept where all information is taken in by us the traders and a decision is made based on our interpretation of data.

A good trader is intuitive, using technical data, fundamentals and his "gut", his experience to enter and exit a trade succesfully.

Keep it simple, a few indicators that work for you (knowing their limitations) a TF and pair that you are comfortable with and have studied, one eye on bloomberg/yahoo/cnbc/bbc/ft/wsj, a good understanding of Price Action, risk vs reward, money management, lot sizing, support and resistance, trend lines, and off you go.


My 2 cents


posted by Cloggie in 2009.
  • #531,659
  • Aug 27, 2011 5:23pm Aug 27, 2011 5:23pm
Quoting SirGoodman
....The EUR/USD moves NOT because of what the charts are saying. It moves around as money flows from one asset class to another.
Are you sure about that, when it comes to e/u?
Compare the prices of Dow/S&P/eurusd May,2nd and now
Dow abt -1600pts (-12%)
S&P abt -190pts (-14%)
EURUSD abt -330pips (-2%)

Things have changed since usd as safe haven is in question
  • #531,660
  • Aug 27, 2011 5:31pm Aug 27, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting SirGoodman
A lot of traders, especially new ones, put a lot of trust in indicators thinking that prices would go and go directly to where the indicators say they should. A lot of traders believe that indicators can forecast the limits of behaviour. Traders believe that indicators can tell them what is reasonable or what is predictable based on the past.

[i]The market as a whole is not reasonable; prices are set by traders, traders are impressionable and imitative, they are herd animals and follow the crowd either up or down, identifying the direction...

hi

first of all sorry i'm not that much good in english but what i can say i did not trust indecators for years until i found some indecators can be powerfull in forex but you should but some rules and trust on your strategy
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