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  • #531,621
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:21am Aug 27, 2011 4:21am
Hi guys. Good weekend wherever you are. Could not be at the computer yesterday evening, go out of town for the weekend to relax. I missed the 1.45 to possible sales. Wait for the next week for a possible trade.
  • #531,622
  • Aug 27, 2011 6:18am Aug 27, 2011 6:18am
"...Prof. Mundell says the Fed and the European Central Bank should co-operate to fix the value of the euro-dollar exchange rate."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle2143016/
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #531,623
  • Aug 27, 2011 6:32am Aug 27, 2011 6:32am
This lovely lady has been hopping around long time now, been away from it 4 weeks, not electrifying for swing trader like me.
It is possible that it will be sold back down, this means same old carnival will continue
Let's see...
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  • #531,624
  • Aug 27, 2011 7:37am Aug 27, 2011 7:37am
Quoting GoldMan.
This lovely lady has been hopping around long time now, been away from it 4 weeks, not electrifying for swing trader like me.
It is possible that it will be sold back down, this means same old carnival will continue
Let's see...
interesting charts goldman, where do you predict it will end up this time next week?

'expert' currency forecasters on fxstreet seem to be a little confused, the average consensus though (which i agree with) is a bearish move toward low 1400s
  • #531,625
  • Aug 27, 2011 8:01am Aug 27, 2011 8:01am
Quoting taxe91
interesting charts goldman, where do you predict it will end up this time next week?

'expert' currency forecasters on fxstreet seem to be a little confused, the average consensus though (which i agree with) is a bearish move toward low 1400s
I don't like to predict too far away, that is just 50%/50% gamble, no one really knows where it is going. I just like to run with the bulls and hunt with the bears. Next week tells, making decisions when action is going on and getting clear signals, right now too messy.

Dancing in the same place almost 3 months now
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  • #531,626
  • Aug 27, 2011 8:05am Aug 27, 2011 8:05am
dang thing won't come down, good PA and it's just stalled there, same with the jpy's.
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  • #531,627
  • Aug 27, 2011 9:24am Aug 27, 2011 9:24am
Quoting GoldMan.
I don't like to predict too far away, that is just 50%/50% gamble, no one really knows where it is going. I just like to run with the bulls and hunt with the bears. Next week tells, making decisions when action is going on and getting clear signals, right now too messy.

Dancing in the same place almost 3 months now
Keeping the same strategy while Euro is in this zone. Buy the lows (.4325) and sell the highs (.4500) until it shows me otherwise. Your charts show significant support and resistance at those levels as well. If it breaks above or below those levels, then I will start to buy or sell retracements. I think everyone here agrees that patience is key right now. Listen to the market, and let the market tell you what it's going to do, because quite frankly, nobody knows... Have a good weekend all !
  • #531,628
  • Aug 27, 2011 10:16am Aug 27, 2011 10:16am
I am currently short from 1.4486. Shorted the break above the 4hr bollie band. Euro doesn't usually like to stay above there too long unless this is a real breakout. Aiming for a touch of the middle band before Euro decides on real direction. Stop will be a 4hr close over 1.4520 as next resistence would likely be nearer 1.47. Can currently see over 70% of traders are short Euro so squeeze could easily gain some legs (if I had seen that stat probably not have shorted when I did.)
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  • #531,629
  • Aug 27, 2011 10:33am Aug 27, 2011 10:33am
Quoting Mr Breakout
From the 1h chart to the daily chart, the EUR/USD is making higher high and higher low.

As a general rule, when the market behaves this way the trader should NEVER bet against the (up)trend.

I will repeat that : If a market is making higher high and higher low, the trader should listen and simply follow the (up) trend, unless he/she has a very compelling reason to trade otherwise. And vice versa for short trades.

If traders could simply follow this simple rule they would be way ahead of the trading game.
Ok , we should but still not . price clearly broken up with a big candle friday last , above all great supportlines but still not convicnced any trend here to follow . may take more time to convince than see what now & follow blind.

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #531,630
  • Aug 27, 2011 11:19am Aug 27, 2011 11:19am
[quote=Flatfish;4907458]


Be careful with that short.I just dont get it.Why would anybody want to short this without confirmation.
How do you determine a valid squeeze break? Watch your macd. IMHO that breakout is valid. Infact we have 3 types of BO in the last 4 hour ie fractal BO/BB squeeze break/bull flag BO.
In a BO we will almost always test the low of the BO bar and it is sitting at 4474. Unless this bar is taken by h4 then bear is back in business.In lower TF that level has already been tested and engulfed north by a strong hourly bar.

I could be wrong but I think next week we might go to the next supply line ..4645 looks like a valid shorting area where daily breakdown happened and the level is yet to be tested.

Regards
Big Panda
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  • #531,631
  • Aug 27, 2011 11:19am Aug 27, 2011 11:19am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=395
  • #531,632
  • Aug 27, 2011 11:53am Aug 27, 2011 11:53am
I know Yuro is so very fucked up but....
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  • #531,633
  • Aug 27, 2011 12:03pm Aug 27, 2011 12:03pm
Quoting Myrza
I know Yuro is so very fucked up but....
A reminder for all the shorter
  • #531,634
  • Aug 27, 2011 12:25pm Aug 27, 2011 12:25pm
Here's a bone from PIE
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  • #531,635
  • Aug 27, 2011 12:47pm Aug 27, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting egkid
Have free time and ready for next set up BUT market close
Next week when market open after 4H market should go down to 4410
Better get some sleep
Cya
we are coming up to september.. chances are another trend will start soon - and its looking up... USD has more to go down.. 1.4474 was a tough resistence to crack, it maybe be just as tough to drop... 1.4696 as i said a week ago is still on the cards... good luck and play safe
  • #531,636
  • Aug 27, 2011 1:12pm Aug 27, 2011 1:12pm
this is the way i see it, ofcourse i think bullish
looks like the big first leg had it retracement (0.5)
it could still take a reverse move in this "oh careful zone"

i think london is closed monday (?) so i'm not to sure for the start of the week, i'll be waiting for a good bullish setup monday late or tuesday,
so looking for high setups on smaller timeframes.

cheers goodluck

S.
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Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #531,637
  • Aug 27, 2011 1:13pm Aug 27, 2011 1:13pm
Quoting jaylovin
we are coming up to september.. chances are another trend will start soon - and its looking up... USD has more to go down.. 1.4474 was a tough resistence to crack, it maybe be just as tough to drop... 1.4696 as i said a week ago is still on the cards... good luck and play safe
Agree with Bold font
I keep say it for months ... it going no where before Hit my TP which is DOWN Then we go UP
It's all about ur entry point
  • #531,638
  • Aug 27, 2011 1:46pm Aug 27, 2011 1:46pm
Thought to share something i read it and i like it
Investing lesson
I don`t like to sell something short unless it`s unbelievably expensive. And I mean unbelievably. I`ve shorted lots of things in my life that were expensive, only to see them get more expensive. I n my early days on Wall Street, I learned one of my greatest lessons about market hysteria when I shorted University Computing in 1970, selling it at 48 USD and waiting for it to descend. I ended up covering my shorts when the price hit 72 USD. University Computing proceeded to go up to about 96 USD - and then plummeted to 2 USD. I was right to short the stock, but I still got wiped out, because at the time I did not have the guts or the money to stick with my convictions that the stock was way overpriced.
  • #531,639
  • Aug 27, 2011 1:47pm Aug 27, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting Ifmyante
Here's a bone from PIE
Thanks , not knew the pie system though . anyway there seems huge buy effects,A/D, to prevent it fall rather continue up successfully from monthly so far & may not be that significant but 3 starts may develop near top areas as monthly support 1.4383 not far from . so it may down there easily even there starts great bull assault friday to have more down to top trading zone 1.4153 monthly , in weeky same, daily 1.4282, H4 tf 1.4465 & breaks 4450 & 4434 likely to traverse bottom trading zone again to bull 1.4343/27, H1 tf same top trading zone 4434 to traverse if fall 4427/19 t bottom t z 4373.
anyway as importants breaks like 4465,50,34 ,19 & even 4383 not that far & easily breakable , monthly close also very close may end in a doji , 3 doji's in a row then or close below sr.

just observation .
fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #531,640
  • Aug 27, 2011 1:59pm Aug 27, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting egkid
Agree with Bold font
I keep say it for months ... it going no where before Hit my TP which is DOWN Then we go UP
It's all about ur entry point
whats your TP?
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