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Where is the EDGE in trading? The most important thing in trading!

  • #841
  • Aug 23, 2011 8:18am Aug 23, 2011 8:18am
Quoting billytt
thats it Newyear, i'm lead to believe trend is your friend but howcome so many people get wiped out, thats my point about market being random. Howcome so many ways to trade msa cross overs,elliot, resistance/support, volume, stars lol etc etc. When i trade, sometimes it just happens to be with the trend and sometimes against, with me its a matter of timing it doesnt matter what the trend is but i do use common sense and i am doing well with it, happy days
I wish you would explain more.. I have some stats and was wondering if yours were similar finding.. however you never got my email I sent you?
  • #842
  • Edited Aug 25, 2011 7:49am Aug 24, 2011 4:02pm | Edited Aug 25, 2011 7:49am
Quoting makingpips
Price is price regardless of the timeframe and yet so many folks set their whole strategy around a certain TF........you can make money on any timeframe of your choosing BUT the higher the better as far as I am concerned. You get a better view of the market from higher timeframes.
But whatever floats your boat. Markets do not operate on TFs they are unaware of time.

makingpips
I just want to add the importance of time in a different light. Timeframes determine when and at what price participants buy and sell. And participants with short timeframe perspectives differ in their buy-sell patterns from participants with long timeframe perspectives.These two concepts are keys to understanding market logic i.e understanding the current actions of the long versus short time frame traders for example those that are buying aggressively from short timeframe traders, and those that are liquidating. Long term traders buy and sell from short term traders only, where as short term traders buy and sell from long and short term traders. This will have consequences for the volume of trades in the market at any given time.

What Seiden calls motion into mass, eg short timeframe turning points of supply and demand that are in confluence with higher timeframe supply or demand levels, and the expected directional movement as a result. When we have short term traders buying into a confluence of higher time frame supply for example, what we have is a market imbalance of short term price value, compared to longer term price that is far from value and can be exploited.
  • #843
  • Aug 24, 2011 4:59pm Aug 24, 2011 4:59pm
What Seiden calls motion into mass, eg short timeframe turning points of supply and demand that are in confluence with higher timeframe supply or demand levels, and the expected directional movement as a result. When we have short term traders buying into a confluence of higher time frame supply for example, what we have is a market imbalance of short term price value, compared to longer term price value that can be exploited.

poetry,many including myself have tried to make this piont,but this post puts it across perfectly.
  • #844
  • Aug 26, 2011 4:25pm Aug 26, 2011 4:25pm
Simples. Some people can trade and some people can't trade. Know in which group you fall and act accordingly. There's your EDGE!
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #845
  • Aug 26, 2011 6:53pm Aug 26, 2011 6:53pm
First, I think that people tend to over complicate. More importantly, I have a theory.

It is the theory of straight line tree planting. If you had a large estate (tract of land) and wanted to plant trees, would you plant them in a straight line (as do most people) or would you just plant them "randomly" where you thought they would look nice?

I theorize that people who are "straight line planters" are less adapted to trading than the "random planters".

Of course, I will need several million dollars in government grants to study this theory in its entirety. Should I reach a definitive and scientific conclusion I will post the results. Such research might normally take 3 to 5 years.

Have a great weekend.

Thank you.
  • #846
  • Aug 26, 2011 7:12pm Aug 26, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting egadsforex
First, I think that people tend to over complicate. More importantly, I have a theory.

It is the theory of straight line tree planting. If you had a large estate (tract of land) and wanted to plant trees, would you plant them in a straight line (as do most people) or would you just plant them "randomly" where you thought they would look nice?

I theorize that people who are "straight line planters" are less adapted to trading than the "random planters".

Of course, I will need several million dollars in government grants to study this...
I'd be interested to hear this elaborated, what does a straight line planter verse a random planter have different..

personally I wouldn't dare put trees in a straight line it seems extremely uncreative.. I would like to have cool trees as well like one big ass tree of life in my backyard as well... anyways I would suspect this is just because I am a musician and artist in many ways.. can't say that would help my trading tho...

about the most wild thing I've seen someone write on the threads in a while.. you crazy
  • #847
  • Aug 26, 2011 10:15pm Aug 26, 2011 10:15pm
Quoting newyear498
I'd be interested to hear this elaborated, what does a straight line planter verse a random planter have different..
a 'creative' random planter has the inability to drive in a straight line through the trees, as well as the inability to easily guesstimate the quantity of trees growing in the field.

it might seem smart to plant trees all over the place with no method... right up until the point where you need to bring some equipment into the field and discover all these damn trees all over the place blocking you at every movement.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #848
  • Edited 9:51am Aug 27, 2011 8:15am | Edited 9:51am
Quoting egadsforex
First, I think that people tend to over complicate. More importantly, I have a theory.

It is the theory of straight line tree planting. If you had a large estate (tract of land) and wanted to plant trees, would you plant them in a straight line (as do most people) or would you just plant them "randomly" where you thought they would look nice?

I theorize that people who are "straight line planters" are less adapted to trading than the "random planters".

Of course, I will need several million dollars in government grants to study this...
Sounds like another great way for governments to waste money on some ridiculous academic bullshit. You'd definitely be able to study this in the UK. Your hypothesis is rather simplistic. What you are missing is the that the people who plant trees usually have a professional background in either Urban Design or Garden/Landscape design and they would be basing their tree planting on logic and taking consideration drainage issues, how the space is used by people, what effect the trees have for wildlife, sun light/day light studies etc etc. They would have had to be educated in the discipline to be able to apply their tree planting logically, just as a trader should understand the logic of the markets before making a trade. You would be better off studying lazy complaining types compared to hard working and logically thinking types.
  • #849
  • Aug 27, 2011 12:22pm Aug 27, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
I have to disagree with this one

If you come and train with the Pros, you realize that they tirelessly practice and perfect their techniques, hours on end. It's years of perfecting "techniques" and not "discretion" IMHO. The other thing is they don't give away their techniques so easily or at all. It is a competition, why would you hand the opposition something that could destroy you? (metaphorically)

I, personally, could honest say that I don't trade through discretion. I wouldn't be surprise that other real profitable traders use...
Very Crucial Point that didn't get much of a response, so here goes.

One argument in favour of this is that if you are successful in trading, then it is because of something that you repeatedly do. That repeated thing is bound to be very similar from one trade to another, and could most likely be formulated as a set of rules.

While we may think that every moment in the markets is new, and while we may deceive ourselves and think that we are able to read the tea leaves over and over again in support of our successful trading, it is unlikely that we would be very successful if each moment were truly new.

What is new in each moment is our psychological state, and that is what we need to be aware of lest we unconsciously project our psychological state on the market and trade ignorant of who or what is making the decisions.

As our inner lives move on, unbeknownst to us, that may end less happily. There are many examples of stunningly successful traders who blow up in the end for such reasons, Jesse Livermore perhaps being the most well known.
  • #850
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:02pm Aug 27, 2011 4:02pm
Quoting medici

One argument in favour of this is that if you are successful in trading, then it is because of something that you repeatedly do. That repeated thing is bound to be very similar from one trade to another, and could most likely be formulated as a set of rules.

While we may think that every moment in the markets is new, and while we may deceive ourselves and think that we are able to read the tea leaves over and over again in support of our successful trading, it is unlikely that we would be very successful if each moment were truly new.
Words of Wisdom. These days one has to search for pins in a haysack to catch one. Thanks.

King.
  • #851
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:54pm Aug 27, 2011 4:54pm
Quoting reres
Lets say that we solve all the problems with traders psyhology and money managment. Lets say money managment is perfect and the trader is trading like a robot. Knowing that trading is just a probability game and not having problems accepting losses.

Than to make a profit he still needs to have an edge. Just like casino has an edge and it doesnt care if someone wins a jackpot once in a while.

So where excatly is an edge in trading??

1) Technical analysis doesnt work! All indicators are lagging and produce random results due to the fact that...

Let us say that we want to bet on a horse race and we know who the winner will be. We will win if we bet on the winner and stick to our bet once we are sure we have the winner.

However since it is a horse race there can be racing luck so there is a chance even with knowing the winner we are not 100% sure we will win.

There are similarities here with trading forex.

How much capital do we have to start ?

How much money will we bet on this race ?

What percentage of our capital is at risk ?

Does the racing program show others why this horse will win ?

What is our EDGE in knowing the winner when others do not ?

There is an EDGE however not everyone will agree or want to have an open mind to learn and understand.

How many here actually make money trading currency year after year ?

I would say hardly any and there is a reason for that.
  • #852
  • Aug 27, 2011 5:01pm Aug 27, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting medici
Very Crucial Point that didn't get much of a response, so here goes.

One argument in favour of this is that if you are successful in trading, then it is because of something that you repeatedly do. That repeated thing is bound to be very similar from one trade to another, and could most likely be formulated as a set of rules.

While we may think that every moment in the markets is new, and while we may deceive ourselves and think that we are able to read the tea leaves over and over again in support of our successful trading, it is unlikely that...
I can tell if a trader or poster can win trading forex once I understand how He/She thinks.

If you trade with fear or greed you will lose. If your ego is more powerful than your common sense you will lose.

If you trade with too little capital you will lose.

If you do not use a proper Risk Management system in place you will lose.

If you do not have a Trade Plan you will lose.

If you trade just for the action you will lose.

If you do not know why you are entering a trade and when you will get out and do not have the discipline to do it then you will lose.

If you only trade via price action or technicals you will lose.

I hope this post makes sense to you otherwise you will lose.
  • #853
  • Aug 28, 2011 1:52pm Aug 28, 2011 1:52pm
Hi guys/gals from uk,i think my edge is if i make a trade then get away from the pc quick, i am terribley nervous watching the real time action but then again i'd probably contradict myself if i actually did that.well i started the week down then got motoring and ended up plus 680 pips and now just waiting for tonight to open and we'll see what happens, happy days
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #854
  • Aug 28, 2011 2:08pm Aug 28, 2011 2:08pm
Quoting billytt
Hi guys/gals from uk,i think my edge is if i make a trade then get away from the pc quick, i am terribley nervous watching the real time action but then again i'd probably contradict myself if i actually did that.well i started the week down then got motoring and ended up plus 680 pips and now just waiting for tonight to open and we'll see what happens, happy days
LOL, classic.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #855
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:04pm Aug 29, 2011 2:04pm
Quoting SirGoodman
I can tell if a trader or poster can win trading forex once I understand how He/She thinks.

If you trade with fear or greed you will lose. If your ego is more powerful than your common sense you will lose.

If you trade with too little capital you will lose.

If you do not use a proper Risk Management system in place you will lose.

If you do not have a Trade Plan you will lose.

If you trade just for the action you will lose.

If you do not know why you are entering a trade and when you will get out and do not have the discipline to do it...
Thanks, that's reassuring.

In case you didn't know, in proper English the title 'Sir' is always used with a given name.
  • #856
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:14pm Aug 29, 2011 2:14pm
Quoting reres
Lets say that we solve all the problems with traders psyhology and money managment. Lets say money managment is perfect and the trader is trading like a robot. Knowing that trading is just a probability game and not having problems accepting losses...


..Share your ideas
If you want an edge, do what everyone else isn't. Or don't do what everyone else is. It's simple, Casinos win because they know what will keep you coming back and the odds are stacked in their favor in the long run. Even the people that win the Jackpots end up broke and sitting in front of a slot machine, that is why the casino isn't worried about it. The "market" (the few winners) win because everyone else is predictable. Start taking apart what everyone says about trading, INCLUDING R:R, money management and Stops and Take profits, mix it up and put your own system together. I learned that I make money in the markets when I am not worried about a Stop loss or a Take profit being hit, or if my R:R matches up right to my money management...I enter a trade because of a few rules and set ups are perfectly in line and I don't close them until the market tells me different. Regardless of my draw down or profit.

Gain an edge by never taking a trade that isn't your own idea. Never buy a system and make sure you NEVER stop learning from the markets, not some joe-shmo "expert." And finally, don't expect to make ANY money doing this, when you are happy with losing, it's surprising how you start to win.

And for all of you spelling and grammer nuts, go edit someone else.
  • #857
  • Aug 30, 2011 6:27pm Aug 30, 2011 6:27pm
Quoting newyear498

about the most wild thing I've seen someone write on the threads in a while.. you crazy
Forgive my absence from this thread, I was just released from the mental ward.

The point of the post was this; the majority of people want to look at the beginning of something and see the end. They go to work everyday and work X amount of hours and expect to see X amount of pay.

Further, they drive the same route to work everyday knowing that by leaving point A they will arrive at point B. The World is "cut and dried" and every expectation has, for the most part, a known outcome. In jest, these are straight line tree planters.

Random planters, on the other hand, may ultimately have the same goals (a beautiful estate) but take a very different route to achieve their goal. The "random planters" are less dependent on the status qou and realize that 8 hours of work doesn't always lead to 8 hours of pay. But they probably envision a much larger payoff in the end.

And Porkpie;
"You would be better off studying lazy complaining types compared to hard working and logically thinking types."

So you see, it has nothing to do with hard working versus complaining. And if you thought I was serious about getting a government grant, well I have this tract of land in the Sahara, covered with beautiful trees (randomly planted, of course) that I will sell really cheap.......
  • #858
  • Aug 30, 2011 6:47pm Aug 30, 2011 6:47pm
Quoting SirGoodman

If you trade with too little capital you will lose.

.

Dear Sir; I agree with your post with the small exception of the foregoing quote. If one were to have all the other attributes should not one be able to trade with whatever amount of capital that could sustain their projected trading plan?

I humbly submit that a 10% drawdown (for example) is 10%, regardless of the size of the account. If I were to risk 5% of my account I could do so on a 1m account or a 1k account. It,s still 5%.

If you cannot manage risk on a 1k account then you will not mange risk on a 1m account.

Granted, I'm not going to get to my desired destination as fast with a smaller amount of capital but the PERCENTAGE of risk is, well you get the point. Yes?
  • #859
  • Aug 30, 2011 7:03pm Aug 30, 2011 7:03pm
BTW..... here's something just for fun. It's the Keirsey Personality Test (totally free).

http://www.keirsey.com/sorter/instru....aspx?partid=0

Does your personality type say anything about being a good or bad trader? I don't know but may apply for a grant to study that.

Thank you.
  • #860
  • Aug 30, 2011 11:21pm Aug 30, 2011 11:21pm
Quoting egadsforex
BTW..... here's something just for fun. It's the Keirsey Personality Test (totally free).

http://www.keirsey.com/sorter/instru....aspx?partid=0

Does your personality type say anything about being a good or bad trader? I don't know but may apply for a grant to study that.

Thank you.
Actually if you Google "trading personality test" you will get over 1mil results.
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