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Trading Made Simple

  • #10,621
  • Aug 25, 2011 9:50am Aug 25, 2011 9:50am
And all the action comes during UK/US market crossover again. Lovely move on GBPUSD. There's something quite liberating about only monitoring one pair.
  • #10,622
  • Aug 25, 2011 11:42am Aug 25, 2011 11:42am
Still in 1st Trade for almost 40hrs
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  • #10,623
  • Aug 25, 2011 12:04pm Aug 25, 2011 12:04pm
I feel that this week has been a little nasty one.
  • #10,624
  • Aug 25, 2011 1:04pm Aug 25, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting lpizzi
First of all, Thank you for sharing.

Can you please explain why you do not have trading the signals present from 2011.08.18-17.00 and 2011.08.19-12.00.
I can see at least 3 entry signals
thanks in advance
Normally the most volume (price action) occurs around and during the first few hours of the London session and the first couple of hours of the New York session. Those are the hours that I try to trade because I have discovered that when I trade every signal (overtrade), I often give pips back instead of keeping them. When the market allows, I try to take a profitable trade (sometimes two) each day during those times. The rest of the time I am busy supervising an appliance delivery business and spending time with my family.
  • #10,625
  • Aug 25, 2011 1:24pm Aug 25, 2011 1:24pm
i feel sorry for u then...

but don't give up. u'll get there

Quoting Flamegs23
I feel that this week has been a little nasty one.
dreams do come true.
  • #10,626
  • Aug 25, 2011 2:16pm Aug 25, 2011 2:16pm
Quoting Milton
I want to ask all the experienced traders here, not only Phx62. As I'm interested in learning from profitable traders, I had an exact look at the 5 trades on Phx62's picture and I saw, that only the 3d trade was in accordance with the rules. For me the rule is clear: the signal is a cross green over red, the entry is at the OPEN of the NEXT candle (AFTER THE CROSS), if the entry candle is the first or second candle with new colour. But, Phx62, you entered always, when the TDI started crossing and that, during the forming of the actual candle (and...
Thank you for your comments on the screenshot I posted.
If you go back in this thread or the previous CH thread and look at some of Big E's screenshots (post 6628, post 7106, post 9312 & several others), you will see that the ideal entry usually occurs AFTER the set-up candle (the first candle to change color) CLOSES. When the second candle of the same color begins to form, I look to see if the TDI green has crossed over the red. If, so, entry is made immediately AT THE BEGINNING of the second candle. If the price action is slow, I may wait a couple of minutes to assure the market will continue in the right direction.
Sometimes when candles consolidate at the end of a run, the TDI will cross earlier. In that case, entry can be made on the first or the second candle.
I would encourage everyone to go back and study old charts. Take the time to study what price action and the TDI do before nice moves occur and what to look for to gain an edge in the market.
  • #10,627
  • Aug 25, 2011 2:31pm Aug 25, 2011 2:31pm
My way is to draw trendlines and support and resistance levels from top down. Think about it - strong support or resistance is more meaningful on the higher time frames so draw lines in different colours starting monthly, weekly, daily etc etc and scale down to whatever time frame you use.
  • #10,628
  • Aug 25, 2011 2:35pm Aug 25, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting stinhk
Hi folks, I need a little help so please bear with me...

There is one aspect of trading I have long had a particular problem with and that is identifying horizontal areas of support & resistance.

I realise my question is not about this strategy's rules but it is affecting my TMS trading so I thought I would post it here. Apologies in advance if it is not deemed appropriate for this thread.

When I look left on a chart I find I can pick out any number of potential S&R levels based on previous PA - and I find it clouds my judgement when assessing...
Hey Matt,

Go back to the 4hr chart and reevaluate dates 8/15, 8/16 & 8/17 you will see resistance turned support which gave the GBP a nice target to sell off to.

Hope that helps!
JD
It's Easy To Get In;.. It's Hard To Get Out
  • #10,629
  • Aug 25, 2011 3:50pm Aug 25, 2011 3:50pm
have you ever tried orderflow trade? i9 really dont understand those levels..can you teach how you put those levels? maybe mine is more harder than yours.
  • #10,630
  • Aug 25, 2011 4:42pm Aug 25, 2011 4:42pm
Quoting stinhk
Hi folks, I need a little help so please bear with me...

There is one aspect of trading I have long had a particular problem with and that is identifying horizontal areas of support & resistance.

I realise my question is not about this strategy's rules but it is affecting my TMS trading so I thought I would post it here. Apologies in advance if it is not deemed appropriate for this thread.

When I look left on a chart I find I can pick out any number of potential S&R levels based on previous PA - and I find it clouds my judgement when assessing...
I used to use Barry Stander's Support & Resistance indicator (Google for it) but now I use mt4's fractals indicator so when I see a few in the same area I have an idea where price may stop, lag, break through, or reverse.

Think of s/r zones - depending on the pr the zone can be just a few pips wide or 10-15. The fractals give you an idea but just remember to look left. Also I zoom out 2-3 clicks so the bars are condensed but s/r shows more clearly.

Hope this helps, p
  • #10,631
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:32pm Aug 25, 2011 6:32pm
Quoting DaveUK
And all the action comes during UK/US market crossover again. Lovely move on GBPUSD. There's something quite liberating about only monitoring one pair.
Hey mate,

I assume you took the trade for GU in the last session.

Can I please ask your basis for this one. Just trying to learn.

The TDI crossed, TDI on daily agrees, Stoch is in right direction, so the rules are right so far.

However there was strong resistance on 1.64, the previous few candles were small and had no direction. The previous few TDI crosses had no effect.

Was there something I missed?

Were you perhaps trading the London session on the 1H chart? In which case I guess there was a signal in the second half of the session.

I stayed out because of the lack of movement on the 4H bars for the last few sessions.

Cheers
Ask me again when I know what I'm talking about.
  • #10,632
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:59pm Aug 25, 2011 6:59pm
Quoting stinhk
Hi folks, I need a little help so please bear with me...

There is one aspect of trading I have long had a particular problem with and that is identifying horizontal areas of support & resistance.

I realise my question is not about this strategy's rules but it is affecting my TMS trading so I thought I would post it here. Apologies in advance if it is not deemed appropriate for this thread.

When I look left on a chart I find I can pick out any number of potential S&R levels based on previous PA - and I find it clouds my judgement when assessing...
@stinhk,
Im glad to see there were a couple of answers to your question already, and let me start off my reply saying that the finding/seeing/targeting of S/R is most definitely part of this system. You'll find it under the "forex basics" curriculum.
My first response to your inquiry is to ask that when you say you see potential areas of horizontal support or resistance, what is your criterion for potential?
You mentioned fibs across multi time frames, and i would have to say that they can have some correlation to the way price moves, but not always. Maybe pivot points then? They can have just as high of a correlation to where price "happens" to reverse, but not always. Big round numbers??? yup...price reverses there too, but not always...How about Historical turning points? uh-huh..but...you guessed it, not always...one could argue that any of these instances would give as accurate a support and resistance horizontal line as the next....because sometimes price respects them to the pip...sometimes price blows past them like they arent even there....sometimes the price will go past one of these "lines", reverse, go past again, and hover on the line like it was the ledge of a cliff, touch it, blow past it, reverse then reverse again then blow past it again, and on and on.
If you were to put all of these lines on your chart it would look like an atlas of every city in the world stacked on top of one another. Heres the point, if you take just one of these methods and apply it to the chart, you have your "potential" S/R. That, my friend, is as good as horizontal support and resistance gets, no matter what you may read, hear, or see on your own. You can only ever have a potential support or resistance zone, because no one knows where/when price will stall, erupt, shoot, fall, bounce, or jump off your screen and squirt you in the eye with a lemon. If it was as simple as picking off a level, there would be no need for a market at all, as the buyers would know to the pip where the sellers are and vice versa.
The market is nothing more than groups of individuals disagreeing on the price of something. Support/Resistance=Demand/Supply...these are nothing more than prices where a seller and buyer temporarily agree (or agree to disagree as the case may be). You will never know where and when these parties will come to terms with each other, you can only give yourself the "potential".

Besides, who ever said Support and Resistance HAD to be horizontal anyways?
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  • #10,633
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:12pm Aug 25, 2011 10:12pm
Thanks to those that replied to my post re horizontal support and resistance.

It's an interesting example for me because looking at that GBPUSD and more clearly seen on a zoomed-out 4H chart, there is a strong
area of resistance somewhere around 1.6436, this area was touched 4 times between 3rd-10th June and again 4 times between 26th July and 5th August. I would have picked that as a probable area of support and as such it may have precluded me from taking the sell trade (given all TMS/other criteria were met) considering the R:R. Yet the price blew through it pretty easily, only to stall out some 70 pips lower.

Understood that S&R has a variety of underlying price and technical basis (fibs, pp's, BRN's, trendlines, etc etc), and of course it's always there to be broken. However, when I look left I find I can pick many potential levels and often I find i'm kept out of trades due to R:R factors.

Matt
  • #10,634
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:24pm Aug 25, 2011 10:24pm
Quoting stinhk
Thanks to those that replied to my post re horizontal support and resistance.

It's an interesting example for me because looking at that GBPUSD and more clearly seen on a zoomed-out 4H chart, there is a strong
area of resistance somewhere around 1.6436, this area was touched 4 times between 3rd-10th June and again 4 times between 26th July and 5th August. I would have picked that as a probable area of support and as such it may have precluded me from taking the sell trade (given all TMS/other criteria were met) considering the R:R. Yet the price...
google sam seiden.....he has some interesting webinars on fxstreet.com concerning supply and demand
  • #10,635
  • Aug 25, 2011 11:12pm Aug 25, 2011 11:12pm
Quoting XxLessoxX
google sam seiden.....he has some interesting webinars on fxstreet.com concerning supply and demand
Many thanks, I will take a look.
  • #10,636
  • Aug 26, 2011 12:08am Aug 26, 2011 12:08am
Quoting wannaberich
i feel sorry for u then...

but don't give up. u'll get there
Want time frame do you trade at?
  • #10,637
  • Aug 26, 2011 12:42am Aug 26, 2011 12:42am
Thank u very much
  • #10,638
  • Aug 26, 2011 2:00am Aug 26, 2011 2:00am
Quoting stinhk
However, when I look left I find I can pick many potential levels and often I find i'm kept out of trades due to R:R factors.
This is purely my opinion, and I don't really have any numbers to back it up ... but to my way of thinking, the most recent S / R should have the most impact, because that is what *everyone* can see on their charts ...

I was once in a thread where someone said something like "back in June of 2007, this was resistance" ...

The thing is, that assumes the currency has a life of its own. Currency is brought sold by humans, and I doubt most of them bother to go back to June 2007 ...

If everyone (buyers and sellers) is looking at their chart thinking "that looks like resistance", then it becomes resistance. Everyone sees the most recent charts, not everyone bothers to look at older charts.

The exception to this would be major historical values - e.g. lowest low in 10 years or "all time high" will always be a toughy to break. And I think BRNs (e.g. 1.40, 1.45, 1.50) can have impact too, but the currencies do usually dance around these numbers.

JUST my opinion though.
1 pip at a time ... if the entries are strong, the rest will follow ...
  • #10,639
  • Aug 26, 2011 2:34am Aug 26, 2011 2:34am
Quoting wannaberich
as to the mechanical i think time will take us to a stage where it does become kind of mechanical. i dream of the day i get bored trading. there is so much in your luggage that the market doesn't surprise you anymore. you have been to "all" situation repeatedly that you know what to do ...
i envisage it as wanting to become like a super experienced 747 pilot ... you've flown for so many years that no matter what alarm / buzzer / bang / conditions / snow / storm you see, you calmly take it in your steed and make the right decision every time ... nothing phases you, nothing is rushed unnecessarily ...

I am still a long long way from this ... but it's where I hope to be (in forex ... no plans to pilot a 747 lol).
1 pip at a time ... if the entries are strong, the rest will follow ...
  • #10,640
  • Aug 26, 2011 2:48am Aug 26, 2011 2:48am
Quoting Loooit
Hey mate,

I assume you took the trade for GU in the last session.

Can I please ask your basis for this one. Just trying to learn.

The TDI crossed, TDI on daily agrees, Stoch is in right direction, so the rules are right so far.

However there was strong resistance on 1.64, the previous few candles were small and had no direction. The previous few TDI crosses had no effect.

Was there something I missed?

Were you perhaps trading the London session on the 1H chart? In which case I guess there was a signal in the second half of the session.

I...
Hi there

Yes, should really have put more than a few words that don't help anybody. Apologies and happy to expand a little.

Firstly yes, this was taken off the 1hr. The way the markets have been this week, I'm really looking for short term trades. Almost scalping. If I can get in on a big move, great. But more looking to find shorter-term trades that allow fairly tight stop-losses. So 1hr for signal, 15min for entry point.

Looking at the 4hr to get the 'bigger picture' though, GBPUSD looked decidedly 'toppy'. It had made a couple of upward moves to try to retest previous high and failed. Then came that drop on the 24th, suggesting sellers were gaining control.

Comparing the 1hr chart against EURUSD and AUSUSD, they were - as you'd expect - showing the same flows. Making highs and lows at pretty much the same time. However, GBPUSD was by far the weakest. As EURUSD pushed to highs, GBPUSD would just grind up a little. So at this point I was waiting for a short signal.

After its first drop on the 24th, price stalled at 1.6345 - looking left, I saw that price found support there on the 17th. So I marked this level with a horizontal line and waited (very) patiently to see if the pair would break lower.

When it did, and the signal came in on the 1hr, I turned to the 15min and watched for the next candle to close below the level. Momentum looked strong so I entered.

As it was, I got out when price started turning for just +60. Nothing to shout about, but a gain nonetheless!

Hope this helps.
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