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  • #530,761
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:16am Aug 25, 2011 6:16am
If i watch the last weeks, lots of downward potential in the game right now. The movers keep in Range because the money to move the market they have is about 300 Pips... so be cautious with longs.

The only way what will crack that crap is that big boys who still on vacation move market out of range to get the money from the bigs(?) who move the market now up and down.

It will happen. But when, that's the question. As I said, I hope for september...

thanks London Trader
  • #530,762
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:19am Aug 25, 2011 6:19am
Quoting BlueCirrus
Here you go...
Quick question for the more experienced traders:

In post 530806 above, there's a 4hr chart that has what I would think are pronounced differences from my FXDD 4hr chart.

My question is since different brokers are on different time zones and their 4hr charts close at different times, wouldn't that make specific candle formations on 4hr charts pretty much useless?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #530,763
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:21am Aug 25, 2011 6:21am
Quoting JackintheBox
@kuroro001, KiwiTrada, johncen and all others:

Yes, the Pa looks like someone big is moving the market up and down, often for no reason.
I agree, I also never seen such moves before last 5 years. It's a paradise for technicals. Watch Head shoulder or rising W on 5 minute bar.

I think ECB and other won't intervene because on daily base Eur/usd stays in Range so BIG BOY(s) have an easy game to manipulate market like hell.

Also the low volume (hoping for damn August End) is a killer. the easiest way to trade this market is trade breakouts...
I agreed....
thanks for your explanation
I cant wait til Sep when direction clear....
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #530,764
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:22am Aug 25, 2011 6:22am
Quoting kuroro001
Another test of 1,4470 ? boring PA
I agree, however, this could be one of gators famous recoil, 44 & 87 will need something special to break, well thats my plan anyway

Geppy hit strong resist, cable bounce fade abit, swissy doji (wait confirmation reverse or continue)with ltl holding maybe eu, au think what the hell we doing up here, maybe some more bear pips on table USA be boss tonight
I think I wait NY

What anyone else think, Trying to make sense out of crappy PA
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #530,765
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:26am Aug 25, 2011 6:26am
Quoting JackintheBox
@kuroro001, KiwiTrada, johncen and all others:

Yes, the Pa looks like someone big is moving the market up and down, often for no reason.
I agree, I also never seen such moves before last 5 years. It's a paradise for technicals. Watch Head shoulder or rising W on 5 minute bar.

I think ECB and other won't intervene because on daily base Eur/usd stays in Range so BIG BOY(s) have an easy game to manipulate market like hell.

Also the low volume (hoping for damn August End) is a killer. the easiest way to trade this market is trade breakouts...
Thankyou Jack, I thought I was going crazy seeing things, very nice explaination Cheers

(dont feel such a dumb ass now)
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #530,766
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:27am Aug 25, 2011 6:27am
Quoting KiwiTrada
I agree, however, this could be one of gators famous recoil, 44 & 87 will need something special to break, well thats my plan anyway

Geppy hit strong resist, cable bounce fade abit, swissy doji (wait confirmation reverse or continue)with ltl holding maybe eu, au think what the hell we doing up here, maybe some more bear pips on table USA be boss tonight
I think I wait NY

What anyone else think, Trying to make sense out of crappy PA
Aussie again tempting to short...
Cable at very very strong support... cant imagine what will we have if we break the wall...probably very big screen needed....

Hmmm..I am getting tired...but NY seems interesting tonight...
don't know y..always find myself confident when trading besides you my friend... You have all my respect...
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #530,767
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:29am Aug 25, 2011 6:29am
Quoting pipppindog
Quick question for the more experienced traders:

In post 530806 above, there's a 4hr chart that has what I would think are pronounced differences from my FXDD 4hr chart.

My question is since different brokers are on different time zones and their 4hr charts close at different times, wouldn't that make specific candle formations on 4hr charts pretty much useless?
I don't trade single candles, but a number of traders do. The chart I posted is based on the European open (Frankfurt time) and that may make some difference since more Forex volume is based in Europe....
  • #530,768
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:32am Aug 25, 2011 6:32am
Quoting JackintheBox
If i watch the last weeks, lots of downward potential in the game right now. The movers keep in Range because the money to move the market they have is about 300 Pips... so be cautious with longs.

The only way what will crack that crap is that big boys who still on vacation move market out of range to get the money from the bigs(?) who move the market now up and down.

It will happen. But when, that's the question. As I said, I hope for september...

thanks London Trader
dont agree with you ...if you look historicaly on biger time frames weakly , daily this does not resemble the hi peaks..tops form much longer than bottoms & this look more like accumulation area ...last tree weaks we are banging 4500 with last 3 weakly bars making higher lows.....its like cutting tree it will snap at one point
  • #530,769
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:37am Aug 25, 2011 6:37am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rokz.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #530,770
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:39am Aug 25, 2011 6:39am
Actually, the PA is easy to explain. EUR/USD follows the #EPU1 (S&P500) almost like a siamese brother. Since the S&P500 is crazy and irrational lately, so is the EUR/USD PA. I keep a 5 min #EPU1 chart next to my EUR/USD 5 min chart to see price action on both and look for divergences. It works like a charm.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #530,771
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:43am Aug 25, 2011 6:43am
Quoting vanyxster
...Similar to my scenario, but I think we need to test the lows of that weekly flag before moving up.....
  • #530,772
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:44am Aug 25, 2011 6:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1313884058

http://content.screencast.com/users/...1-13.41.48.gif
  • #530,773
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:44am Aug 25, 2011 6:44am
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Yes. right now the eur is forming bullish price action. That screenshot says it
all.
  • #530,774
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:48am Aug 25, 2011 6:48am
Quoting johncen
Aussie again tempting to short...
Cable at very very strong support... cant imagine what will we have if we break the wall...probably very big screen needed....

Hmmm..I am getting tired...but NY seems interesting tonight...
don't know y..always find myself confident when trading besides you my friend... You have all my respect...
No prob bro, everyone help get a green pip, or not lose a green pip is a good thing, we all friends, enemy is broker, and "bulls" lol

Try wait NY bro, I tired too, had good pips today, was hard work, my drug is when market really moves, behaves, and trade plan fruits
Our levels have worked fine for entries, cant ask for more

Happy pip hunting bro
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #530,775
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:58am Aug 25, 2011 6:58am
Quoting FX-Ray
Short
Stopped out with +1. Reentry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: short8.JPG Size: 153 KB
  • #530,776
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:59am Aug 25, 2011 6:59am
another 4450 .......

dont know where it goes......but i wont buy it at this level............nor sell........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #530,777
  • Aug 25, 2011 7:08am Aug 25, 2011 7:08am
Everybody is waiting for Bernanke to open his mouth. euro has been pretty directionless for a while now. But soon I think we will see fireworks.
  • #530,778
  • Aug 25, 2011 7:21am Aug 25, 2011 7:21am
Quoting Razorman
Everybody is waiting for Bernanke to open his mouth. euro has been pretty directionless for a while now. But soon I think we will see fireworks.
one way or another ...but every time he spoke till now he did slaughter usd ;/...maybe is better to say nothing
  • #530,779
  • Aug 25, 2011 7:25am Aug 25, 2011 7:25am
Quoting sisse
That is right. But the point was, that the Lehman case was only a bump in the EW-road of stock-indices. Sorry, should have mentioned it.

 EW deals with the mood of masses. So Elliot waves represent themselves best in indices.

OK point taken.

Do we see and accept Elliott Waves in the markets?

Don't use it but I accept it as much as any other TA tool. In my case S/R. Valid for trading in the context of your trading plan but not as the one that determine price in the markets. A RSI oversold is as valid or as useless...


Hello Sisse,

nice ongoing discussion here :-) and I think that we can go on forever :-)


I can fully understand the view towards EW, since, a few years ago, I was skeptic too. So let me address a few key points:

"A RSI oversold is as valid or as useless as a EW wave 3."

That statement is very true. You know: we can stay longer in OS/OB conditions than we can stay solvent. And the wave 3 can extend much longer than anticipated. It is all about context, momentum etc. That was the reason I did not label your piece of chart. One has to provide such information in the bigger context and wave degree.

Take actually Gold. In commodities wave 5 can extend very long. That we have seen now. It makes it hard to trade and to predict, when the movement will reverse. When we were around 1850 I thought, that it might go to 1950 or even the psychological mark 2000, but certain counts, momentum, fib ratios told me to go short around 1900. I shorted right at 1905. At the same evening Prechter came out with a call in his intermediate report of EW Theorist to short around 1900 with a SL at 1950. So far this has proofed to be very rewarding. His call was purely based on EW and sentiment indications.

Ew now gives us good ideas at which point we are right and at which marks we are wrong.

To EW-label a chart retrospective is relatively easy. To label the moves ongoing is quiet another task. We only can come up with counts which may have the highest probabilities. But market/price/mood can decide other and we have to relable the charts accordingly. That is the part where people often blame EW. But that is the nature of this method of analysis: to get one or two high probability counts and to know when we are right and wrong. Nothing more, nothing less. EW offers a very straight forward tool to get the edge in the market. I never would use EW counts alone. My method is to combine extensive momentum analysis on multi time frame with EW counts.
EW has to support momentum analysis, and not vice versa - that is important.
Add Fibs and or S/R-levels to it and it may be my "holy grail" :-)


"There is no way that EW or any other tool overides market and price."
"is an aberration to believe Elliott waves (or ANY TA TOOL) are a function of human mood"
"Thats over the top thinking that a couple of lines (EW waves or any other) overides, economics, finance, politics, risk and capital flows. Markets wasn't, isn't and will never be an exact science !!!"


That would be a great fault to think, that EW overrides market and price. Elliott waves are the traces market(humans)/price leave on a chart. This traces are the collective reflections of the mood (greed/fear) of the market participants.

It is aberrationaly to believe, that market prices are determined by the true value of the underlying. Let me answer this with a citation of Prechter:

"....Let me begin by stating an undisputed fact that every first year economics student learns about stocks: A stock certificate may have an objective value on one basis or another, but is still only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it.

When we look at a 100 year chart for the Dow, we’re not looking at a record of the prosperity of the corporations involved. We’re looking at an intimate record of what people felt that stocks were worth. When the Dow crashed in 1929, it wasn’t a reaction to a sudden drop in corporate profits. That came afterward.

Bear markets are a fear-based mass psychological phenomenon, which changes the value of the shares."


Only looking at fundamentals is not the whole game. Sentiment is key.

Again, take a look at Japan. Fundamentally the BOJ 20 years or so back, took the decision to set interest rates against zero. That should have lead, fundamentally wise, to a surge in spending. But nothing happened. Japan is the model case showing that keyesianism does not work. Because keynesianism does not pay attention to socioeconomic factors such as mood. Since 20 years the people of Japan can not be brought to spending and to take debt. Social mood is very very bad/low there.

A few years ago Prechter wrote the following:

"Realize that the Fed doesn’t actually lend money to consumers. It merely sets the interest rates at which banks lend each other money. The hope is that banks will take these lower rates as a cue to pass the lower rates down to the consumers, thus facilitating more credit – but it can’t guarantee that this will happen.

In 2001, the Fed lowered its discount rate from 6 percent to 1.25 percent. That’s the heaviest cut in such a short time ever. But what if this strategy fails, as it did in Japan? It certainly hasn’t ”saved the economy” so far. What will they do if the economy continues to contract? Lower the rates to zero?

Then what?

When people are losing jobs and the purchasing power of the dollar is rising, consumers won’t want to borrow money that they will have to pay back with much more valuable dollars later on. Also, having been burned by bankruptcy and loan defaults, banks will be considerably less willing lend this money in the first place.

This will have disastrous effects on our credit-based economy."

"(how do you think the majority of fund managers work?...not with EW or TA I can guarantee you 100%"

Well, that is easy to address: Why do you believe, why nearly all of the fund managers fail to beat the market? Answer: they are part of the market with their behavior and run with the herd. I would never ever again buy funds.....
There may be exeptions as in every system. So we have to question what the successful are doing/knowing, what the failed do not do/know? Fundamentals and their analysis can it not be - this information is available to all the participants and I am sure that one can feed a lot of algos with this information to get "trading advice". But most of them fail...........

So what is it? Well, not TA........



Best to you,

Markus
  • #530,780
  • Aug 25, 2011 7:27am Aug 25, 2011 7:27am
Quoting KiwiTrada
No prob bro, everyone help get a green pip, or not lose a green pip is a good thing, we all friends, enemy is broker, and "bulls" lol

Try wait NY bro, I tired too, had good pips today, was hard work, my drug is when market really moves, behaves, and trade plan fruits
Our levels have worked fine for entries, cant ask for more

Happy pip hunting bro
~ green pips to you...!

I am waiting for NY now
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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