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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #6,901
  • Aug 19, 2011 11:22am Aug 19, 2011 11:22am
Quoting PutaMadre
The same schedule again

As about the the famous pattern see an opportunity on CADCHF for it :nerd:
The pattern i mentioned before. Though still not sure if it will end up as legit one, something is wrong with the right part of it deffinetly...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_CAD_CHF_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 38 KB
  • #6,902
  • Aug 21, 2011 12:52pm Aug 21, 2011 12:52pm
Hi Mauro,
do you think this plot is still valid?
How do you draw the upper right resistance trandline of the diamond?
Thanks
Marco


Quoting jupiter_peak
However, I posted this one a few weeks ago.

If you ask me, in all honesty, which one I think is the one?

I think this ONE HERE has the best potential to be the one.

Very slicky MOFO.
  • #6,903
  • Aug 23, 2011 1:49pm Aug 23, 2011 1:49pm
I would like if somebody could explain to me ,please, following problem:


USD/CAD today - main move of the day.
Today´s main move of the day was DOWN.

I traded this pair today according to the main move of the day. That means- I tried to be better short, then long. It also looked for a while that 18.4 can be used and it looked quite good. Couple minutes ago the main move of the day has changed from DOWN to UP. (only for few pips but the main move of the day has changed.)

As I remember, Igrok once has said that if the pair changes the main move of the day even for 1 pip, it says to him that this pair has quite different intensions and that he must pay attention to this fact.

Ok, now I would like to ask a question about this very pair USD/CAD:
for some reasons I think that this pair will go down - to be exact - to the 0.9860 area. The question is : what´s your experience with a situation like this one. Would you ignore the possible short when the pair has changed the main move from down to up or not ?

Thank you all for your opinions.
  • #6,904
  • Aug 23, 2011 3:46pm Aug 23, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting Tatbat
I traded this pair today according to the main move of the day. That means- I tried to be better short, then long.

Ok, now I would like to ask a question about this very pair USD/CAD:
for some reasons I think that this pair will go down - to be exact - to the 0.9860 area. The question is : what´s your experience with a situation like this one. Would you ignore the possible short when the pair has changed the main move from down to up or not ?

Thank you all for your opinions.
It is not that easy, just being short/long depending on the main move. And since the stop loss always should be placed outside the daily range, the answer to your question is yes.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #6,905
  • Aug 24, 2011 12:36am Aug 24, 2011 12:36am
Tatbat, from my view it could be considered as #18.4 but on intraweek basis.
  • #6,906
  • Aug 24, 2011 1:03am Aug 24, 2011 1:03am
Quoting aediaz1
It is not that easy, just being short/long depending on the main move. And since the stop loss always should be placed outside the daily range, the answer to your question is yes.
Aediaz did you get the book of Darkstar about order flow?
  • #6,907
  • Aug 24, 2011 7:35am Aug 24, 2011 7:35am
Quoting vaflis
it's IM #18.4 with micro sl.... will see
Actually a very good scenario, well spotted! Here is the diamond that JP also posted on eur/gbp. Confluence between 18.4 and diamond. What a gem.

Quoting wolfraider
Aediaz did you get the book of Darkstar about order flow?
No
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURGBP (240 Min) 24_08_2011.jpg Size: 70 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #6,908
  • Aug 24, 2011 7:50am Aug 24, 2011 7:50am
Quoting aediaz1
It is not that easy, just being short/long depending on the main move. And since the stop loss always should be placed outside the daily range, the answer to your question is yes.
yes ...I am the same opinion and thank you
  • #6,909
  • Aug 24, 2011 7:58am Aug 24, 2011 7:58am
Not sure about cable
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable hourly.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #6,910
  • Aug 24, 2011 8:00am Aug 24, 2011 8:00am
Quoting elitejets
Not sure about cable
Measure twice, cut once
  • #6,911
  • Aug 24, 2011 10:31am Aug 24, 2011 10:31am
I never stopped being impressed how incredible precise the market is. Last week we saw a repeatable pattern to exploit on gpb/usd. This week it was the eur/chf's turn.

On Monday, we saw an usual 18.4 The next day, almost the same pattern present itself. Decline during Asia, resume the trend at Euro before making a decline during NY session. Today the decline went further during Euro session and one could pick the bottom at the channel and wait for the price to continue its trend, changing today's MMOTD to up.

What gave me even more confidence to buy at the channel's bottom, was that the biggest decline this week have been at max 100 pips. Today's decline was 84.

I'm not sure if this makes sense to anybody, but its seems very obvious.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURCHF (15 Min) 24_08_2011.jpg Size: 67 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #6,912
  • Aug 24, 2011 1:12pm Aug 24, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting aediaz1
I never stopped being impressed how incredible precise the market is. Last week we saw a repeatable pattern to exploit on gpb/usd. This week it was the eur/chf's turn.

On Monday, we saw an usual 18.4 The next day, almost the same pattern present itself. Decline during Asia, resume the trend at Euro before making a decline during NY session. Today the decline went further during Euro session and one could pick the bottom at the channel and wait for the price to continue its trend, changing today's MMOTD to up.

What gave me even more confidence...

In this case here, buying the dips. This is the very concept of 18.4 and why placing SL below the HL (below low of day) is required. By breaking the HL, it would negate an uptrend thus making the trade senseless.


One could even place trades by entering the market somewhere between a 'predicted' HL and the previous HL and place the SL below the previous HL.

The concept of the 18.4 is well thought. I think is important that followers of this thread understand why/how this template was thought in the first place.
  • #6,913
  • Aug 24, 2011 9:26pm Aug 24, 2011 9:26pm
The Igrok's book is not very clear when talking about 18.4
Anybody would be interested in taking the time to rephrase 18.4 in more clear term?

Thanks
Marc
  • #6,914
  • Aug 25, 2011 12:24am Aug 25, 2011 12:24am
Quoting marcb
The Igrok's book is not very clear when talking about 18.4
Anybody would be interested in taking the time to rephrase 18.4 in more clear term?

Thanks
Marc
Hi Marc,

It was published in currency trader mag in more details, and the article is called "Trapping the intraday range". Try to look for it. You can find examples of #18.4 setup in this thread also.
The way i see it, it's about taking trades on pullback in to direction of already confirmed daily trend, that could be projected by main move. Also taking trades when trading range still has potential to expand, makes it more effective.
Hope it helps
  • #6,915
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:03am Aug 25, 2011 6:03am
Quoting elitejets
Not sure about cable
Lady-trader has recognized the pattern precisely. Reversal double-diagonal diamond


Quoting PutaMadre
Hi Marc,
It was published in currency trader mag in more details, and the article is called "Trapping the intraday range". Try to look for it. You can find examples of #18.4 setup in this thread also.
The way i see it, it's about taking trades on pullback in to direction of already confirmed daily trend, that could be projected by main move. Also taking trades when trading range still has potential to expand, makes it more effective.
Hope it helps
Nothing to say in addition
Attached Image
  • #6,916
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:28am Aug 25, 2011 6:28am
Quoting jupiter_peak
In this case here, buying the dips. This is the very concept of 18.4 and why placing SL below the HL (below low of day) is required. By breaking the HL, it would negate an uptrend thus making the trade senseless.


One could even place trades by entering the market somewhere between a 'predicted' HL and the previous HL and place the SL below the previous HL.

The concept of the 18.4 is well thought. I think is important that followers of this thread understand why/how this template was thought in the first place.
The issue I had with 18.4 before I started doing some research on what variables making significant difference, was the low hit-rate, ranging from 35% to 44% at best. I found out that numbers of time the MMOTD had changed to be significant for the outcome, something the next research killed.

Other findings said that the MMOTW HAD to be aligned with MMOTD, but the next research found out that this only goes for some of the pairs, not all.

Here is one test I did on cadjpy. Noticed that the cum. profit are 27% with less than 1% risk! Even though the results are good and I trade this pair with the very same settings, the maximum losers in a row was 6, which could be devastating for new traders and I must admit, me too.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #6,917
  • Aug 25, 2011 7:01am Aug 25, 2011 7:01am
Quoting aediaz1
I found out that numbers of time the MMOTD had changed to be significant for the outcome, something the next research killed.
Hi Andre,

Can you expand on this please? I'm not sure I understand, you mean that further research "killed" the MMOTD concept importance?

Also did you tested 18.4 mechanically? If so may I ask what software did you use?

P.S. For what is worth if anyone is interesed, what I found EXTREMELY useful regarding profitability was taking trades only there is enough space from the entry point for the day to fill its range in the direction of the trade. I mean any setups, not just 18.4.

Thanks,
-soso
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,918
  • Aug 25, 2011 7:07am Aug 25, 2011 7:07am
Quoting soso
Hi Andre,

P.S. For what is worth if anyone is interesed, what I found EXTREMELY useful regarding profitability was taking trades only there is enough space from the entry point for the day to fill its range in the direction of the trade. I mean any setups, not just 18.4.

Thanks,
-soso
Did you meant taking trades when actual range is far bellow average?

Thanks!
  • #6,919
  • Aug 25, 2011 7:12am Aug 25, 2011 7:12am
Quoting soso
Hi Andre,

Can you expand on this please? I'm not sure I understand, you mean that further research "killed" the MMOTD concept importance?

Also did you tested 18.4 mechanically? If so may I ask what software did you use?

P.S. For what is worth if anyone is interesed, what I found EXTREMELY useful regarding profitability was taking trades only there is enough space from the entry point for the day to fill its range in the direction of the trade. I mean any setups, not just 18.4.

Thanks,
-soso
I first believed that every trade from 18.4 had to be in both MM of daily and week. In some pairs, like cad/jpy, this is not necessary.

I tested it mechanically, using Ninjatrader 7.

P.S: that is very true for swissy-pairs.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #6,920
  • Aug 25, 2011 7:19am Aug 25, 2011 7:19am
Quoting PutaMadre
Did you meant taking trades when actual range is far bellow average?

Thanks!
Yes exactly.

Now I am thinkering with the idea even more, since I tested weekly ranges I noticed that the fulfillment relationship is ~about the same as with daily ranges. So now I am testing taking trades only when distance to TP is in between AWR.

Let's say it's thursday and it's a trendy week on the long side and it reached 90+% of AWR. From this point on I would look to take only short trades. Still testing it though...
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
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