EURUSD

What 1.418 ???

look at the 21 ema on weekly chart. we do not break the box . the trend is not clear .i have no idea about next week .

FX111 chart sure looks to me like a good case of "sell the swing highs" and "buy the swing lows" until the Euro breaks out of this sideways channel it's been in for weeks now. Avoid the fakeout breakouts. Just my humble opinion.

EU updated as per tdsc .
fontu
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post4887693

Near term usdx bear from usfchf pair pa .

previous pre-weekly analysis stands ok + usdx
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post4886379

Yes I'm short on next week trade. It H & Should on H4. Go for 300 pips.
Let see pal.

my analysis

Infinitus excellent post.

"Lehman is only a bump in the road of an Elliott-wave". I cherry picked the extreme Lehman case on purpose to show how the FA value of underlying is always more important than any TA long term.

How can Lehman by a bump in the road of and EW or any trading system when you can't trade the instrument. When you take the fundamental value from the picture, TA automatically disappears from the equation. Once stock price reached 0 there is no EW wave count or any TA applicable, the instrument is gone and all TA is useless because there is not fundamental value behind it.

"Remember some nice Central Bank interventions...." I agree that is exactly my point. When a CB intervene and artificially affect the market price of a a currency, is always ineffective in the long term real value of a pair.

WHY? not because an intervention is made on EW xxx wave or whatever other TA, is because the real value of a currency is the reflexion of rates, inflation and risk in the long run not from artificial factors (like an intervention), The case of Japan exemplifies this clearly not a wave count or any other TA.

"The exogenous-cause model fools investors exquisitely. One reason is that rationalization follows upon mood change. Mood change comes first, and attempts at reasoning come afterward...."

Let me ask you why and what cause a long term "mood change"? Is certainly not a hormonal investor reaction but is BECAUSE of a change in the perceived FUNDAMENTAL VALUE, given by either rates, expectations, inflation or risk not by a random reaction to a predefined TA (i.e RSI oversold or a EW wave 5 endinng).

I agree with you that short term knee jerk reaction has a lot more to do with human reactions and herd mentality. However, the long term value of a currency always goes back to the same basic Fundamentals (check any knee jerk reaction that sooner rather than later get tested back before the real move starts).

Mathematical and algorithmic models in the markets are a LOT more important than you think and we see in FF. From option pricing and positioning to HFT the human subjective factor is a lot less important than you think.

The other "big players", the ones who set the real price value of a currency, base their decisions a lot more in technical monetary factors (CB for example in M1, M2, M3, rates, inflation expectation, reserves, etc, etc) and FA arguments (rate differentials, futures contracts, hedging positions, etc).

Look, there is not EW or any TA without FA. The price of a currency is the reflexion of its FA underlying factors. The current price of the euro 1.44, and we traders are the one that try to rationalize the moves using charts and TA tools to profit from the moves not the other way around. A currency won't and can't never ignore it's underlying FA in the long term.

"To succeed in the market, you must learn initially to embrace irony and paradox". I disagree, there is not irony and paradox in trading, is just traders perspective. We traders and our tools are the one who try to tame and rationalize price movements in "logical" frameworks (EW, etc), but the FA value of currency is only given by its FA factors and not by our perspective.

If the Lehman example wasn't enough what about these examples. 1st Euro 5 years charts including all the history of the pair and the second a custom chart of filtered 8 range tick chart on Friday US session.... can you count the EW (or any other TA) in the 1st chart?, what about the 2nd.....?

That's my point the current value of the euro is 1.44, only we and in our perspective can analyze it from a EW or any other TA. We want to tame the pair in a wave framework but the intrinsic value is the same and the final destination will be set by the FA behind not by the next wave 3 or stochastic crossover or test of Support in the second chart....

In any case, I think we agree on the trading part but not in the FA part but thats nice for a weekend conversation and for our swing trades not that much for our next intraday trade so best of good luck next week and enjoy the rest of the weekend.

sisse

anyone else seeing potential cup and handle on h1? or is it just me?

Here's one possible scenario for the Elliott analysts in this thread.

Good Luck!...Hope it helps...

what up rat bastards....

WB Brother!

w'up rat dude...

Your Cup & Handle somewhat fits with the EW chart I just posted....Good Luck!

thanks bro, how you been? hows this madhouse of a thread been...

all good F/A...how about you mate, you back at em?

don't trade that long in advance but just shooting the breeze with some chart analysis, gl to your good self..

great to hear ptl, yeah easing back in slowly, trying to incorporate more method to the madness, but still got heaps of work and testing to do...

Shitz gone to peices...

Madhouse is right...

Rat started her own thread, ken just busted out one of his own.

Markets been an effing roller coaster and most importantly...

The sun is shining and the beer is cold...

sup' Gix?

good to hear your still at the bastards, sure you will make heads or tails of them soon...its funny, still after all these years, every once in a while, I turn the computer on and am lost, and think...I couldn't take two cents out of this market..bloody horrible business if you ask me, but I'm screwed, cause I dont know how to do anything else...good luck mate...