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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,161
  • Aug 19, 2011 4:34pm Aug 19, 2011 4:34pm
Quoting fosking
"I am watching the Forex market very closely and will take decisive steps" said Noda one last time.
Unfortunately, Prime Minister Naoto Kan lets him know exactly what the rest of the market thinks.

Attachment
I believe the Prime Minister is not asleep, he is probably only thinking about all the money he is going to make after the intervention
  • #26,162
  • Aug 19, 2011 5:00pm Aug 19, 2011 5:00pm
Quoting iwjw
Problem with buystop I'm seeing is that your broker could fill you with a huge gap. If BOJ goes in, they do it with big volume what will cause an immediate spike. Your buystop is excecuted at best price availlable as soon as your limit is hit and automatically widens your stoploss because of the possible much higher entry price
why wouldn't the boj go in with full force on Sunday evening (in the u.s) when liquidity is very very low. They could move the pair 300-400 pips easy.
  • #26,163
  • Aug 19, 2011 6:03pm Aug 19, 2011 6:03pm
caught the flush down under 76 for a quick easy 50 pips at the NY open.... god shorting this this is just dream trading lately.... ...

we are def going to see 72.5 in the next 2 weeks

BOJ just needs to intervene again so we can get some more longs stopped out and collect some of my pending sell limit orders...

thanks Noda!!!
  • #26,164
  • Aug 19, 2011 7:01pm Aug 19, 2011 7:01pm
Why doesn't the BoJ do an intervention like before...then wait again for a decline and then do another one right a day or two into the decline...that will really set people straight.
  • #26,165
  • Aug 19, 2011 7:29pm Aug 19, 2011 7:29pm
Quoting FXMindset
Hello There,

We Would Know On Monday 2 Hours Before Tokyo Open and We will see then later as I am closely watching the 4H stick now
If BOJ intervenes on Monday (late Sunday for US traders) you really want to act fast, so in my opinion the 1H chart is better if you want to ride the trend, unless you can afford the larger stops that the 4H charts require.
  • #26,166
  • Aug 19, 2011 8:05pm Aug 19, 2011 8:05pm
Has this pair fallen any this week?

It fell about 30 pips for the entire week.

Huge move.



Why intervene when it has barely moved for the entire week?

There will be more opportune times to do so in the future if necessary.
  • #26,167
  • Aug 19, 2011 8:23pm Aug 19, 2011 8:23pm
Quoting QweeQwa

Why intervene when it has barely moved for the entire week?
To surprise everybody maybe, especially the sleepy traders. Never trust the Yen...
  • #26,168
  • Aug 19, 2011 8:34pm Aug 19, 2011 8:34pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
To surprise everybody maybe, especially the sleepy traders...
I hear that he stated something along the lines that if it was not a surprise it would do no good.

Keep in mind these interventions will be few and far between.

Better opportunities will arise for them to do so.

I do agree with you that in the slow hours of when the markets open back up on Sunday, would have more of an a effect, than to intervene sometime later in the week when the pair is caught in a very, very tight trading range. The psychological effect, and in my opinion that is all they hope to achieve, will have a far more stronger impact.

I do not count on any kind of intervention though. If I ease into a long position it will not based on the hopes of an intervention that will only be temporary.

Instead of taking a long position and holding on the hopes of intervention it might be more productive to stay out, let them intervene, and then go short.
  • #26,169
  • Aug 19, 2011 8:53pm Aug 19, 2011 8:53pm
Quoting QweeQwa
Instead of taking a long position and holding on the hopes of intervention it might be more productive to stay out, let them intervene, and then go short.
There is also another possibility, the yen could 300 pips higher in the next few days, slowly and quietly, without any intervention at all.

The trader should always be prepared for any possible scenario, not just the "obvious" one.
  • #26,170
  • Aug 19, 2011 9:15pm Aug 19, 2011 9:15pm
76.00 breached....then went up to close @ 76.50....I
suspect more downside the coming weeks...
  • #26,171
  • Aug 19, 2011 9:21pm Aug 19, 2011 9:21pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
There is also another possibility, the yen could 300 pips higher in the next few days, slowly and quietly, without any intervention at all.

The trader should always be prepared for any possible scenario, not just the "obvious" one.
True.

I am just speaking from their intervention efforts since last September. It is a beautiful thing if you are long when it happens, I got a part of one of them.



But yet if you missed out on them and just waited for everything to calm down you would have made more profit shorting after the fact than being in along for the free ride.

Intervention will happen again. If I am long at the time I will be going to the best restaurant in town that weekend. But more than likely I will not be. I'll let it calm down and then take a short.

  • #26,172
  • Aug 19, 2011 9:29pm Aug 19, 2011 9:29pm
Quoting Demon Bane
76.00 breached....then went up to close @ 76.50....I
suspect more downside the coming weeks...
75.94.

75.34.

Numbers I am watching on the downside.

77.08---77.20.

If it can breakthrough that .....is a long in the works???
  • #26,173
  • Aug 19, 2011 11:04pm Aug 19, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting iwjw
Problem with buystop I'm seeing is that your broker could fill you with a huge gap. If BOJ goes in, they do it with big volume what will cause an immediate spike. Your buystop is excecuted at best price availlable as soon as your limit is hit and automatically widens your stoploss because of the possible much higher entry price
Hello There

You may looking a broker with fix spread.No Need To worries as a trader you need to expect & unexpected some movement

Looking the best price,here the hint : Look your daily chart and entry with your 4H chart so you wont stress enough which level is potentially breakout

Notice the 4H chart when the market closed.This kind of pattern are very easilly to fall one.

I am add a small short @ 76.54 with Tp 76.04
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ 4H.png Size: 29 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,174
  • Aug 20, 2011 12:34am Aug 20, 2011 12:34am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post4886352
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #26,175
  • Edited 7:16am Aug 20, 2011 2:53am | Edited 7:16am
Hello Guys,

I am still remembered before when a lot analysis or pro trader said that USDJPY wont break The Level 84.xx (I am forget) and It will going up till 90.xx

But,It break and reach 79.xx which a lot of pro or even master of traders said that from this lowest level BOJ would seriouslly take action and time to buy!

And here they comes Global 7 Intervention combined their power "Multitelar Intervention" buy and buy !

And I read a lot expert mentioned that this kind of world intervention was never "failed" and blah blah blah..People read and believe because these analysis made by "experts" with tens years of experience

Guess what?another break till printed the new record @ 75.94
How many people losses because keep buying without StopLoss from previous speculation?

People tired now because of major loss and they believe this is huge downtrend would resume and when the prices going up they tend to sell,and going up sell again and again and again....BAMMM!

This circle is never end and people which never learn from the mistakes wont be achieve success at world of trading

You won several times doesnt mean you are great and smart now.I've seen a lot traders makes money consistently over 5 years but loss everything in one day..Why ? Simple,People always forget himself when made a lot of monies

Trading its not about system.your winning.your gain etc
Its about yourself

Have a Nice weekend all
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,176
  • Aug 20, 2011 11:03am Aug 20, 2011 11:03am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #26,177
  • Aug 20, 2011 11:18am Aug 20, 2011 11:18am
Quoting FXMindset
Hello There

You may looking a broker with fix spread.No Need To worries as a trader you need to expect & unexpected some movement

Looking the best price,here the hint : Look your daily chart and entry with your 4H chart so you wont stress enough which level is potentially breakout

Notice the 4H chart when the market closed.This kind of pattern are very easilly to fall one.

I am add a small short @ 76.54 with Tp 76.04
im adding short 76.80-90 ...but it might not reach that level i shorted pair 76.65 and took profit 76.06 and went long now im short again but leaving my long run
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #26,178
  • Aug 20, 2011 11:29am Aug 20, 2011 11:29am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398
  • #26,179
  • Edited 1:36pm Aug 20, 2011 12:38pm | Edited 1:36pm
Quoting eqshack
im adding short 76.80-90...but it might not reach that level i shorted pair 76.65 and took profit 76.06 and went long now im short again but leaving my long run
I wish I can short from that level but the next 4H stick open could be easilly to fall because that kind of lines is not strong enough to hold that support
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ 4H.png Size: 32 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,180
  • Aug 20, 2011 1:23pm Aug 20, 2011 1:23pm
Quoting FXMindset
You may looking a broker with fix spread.No Need To worries as a trader you need to expect & unexpected some movement
No, even fixed-spread brokers cannot guarantee your stop, especially when the market is moving fast, read your contract.
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