EURUSD

FWIW, I'm a swing trader, and the way things are right now... all positions are closed before the weekend. There is to much risk right now to chance anything.

A Level for today 1.4366. If PA closes above this level today, so let PA go again to 1.4418 area and short, use always SL

We must be below this level today for finally PA can go for a nice period of time for its downtrend, but wait to see a possible more 3 to 4 weeks PA above 1.44
September must open below 1.4444
I do not advise longs above 1.44 or shorts below 1.4250 for medium long term trades.
Short always above 1.4418 and never forget SL.

If we cross 1.4473 again, so stay out of shorts for next week.

My Monthly and Weekly charts are giving me bearish trends

Good weekend to all and GL

you have a great weekend too

Another nice little NY afternoon micro-trend shaping up. Still a little too volatile, but it's still early. I'm beginning to wonder if just those alone wouldn't keep baby in new shoes.

Low to zero risk of some CB coming in and knocking your teeth out by accident, most of the major commercial and hedging flows put to bed. Probably even the flock-of-retail movements mostly over. And a lot of directional persistence, many days.

But a question for another day.

Event risk is never really in a chart. A weekend hold usually works out just fine, just like selling an out of the money option usually works out fine. But it can also be the biggest bet you'll ever lose.

Situation not stable too much fear and indecision Not best time to let open position in weekend "Chances never end"
I close my book
Catch u next week

well typically whenever i hold it gaps against, and when i close it would've gapped in favour it seems.

anyway rounding off a good week, hope all in green.

have a nice weekend or vacation...

have a good one G

120 trade-able hours per week, giver take, depending on broker, but basically a market that lasts 24 Hours per day, 5 days per week...

Kenny Rogers has the most quoteable on the situation, "You have to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away, know when to run"...

In that, sure you can take it to mean that you should be able to know when to hold a weekend position, but really...if you have 120 hours to trade per week and haven't quite made a profit by then, you really are the Title of the KR song, "The Gambler".

It's a shit bet, and a poor decision, IMO...I have made on gaps, lost on gaps, but believe that trading in a market when I can set a TP that will take and an SL will hold, are infinitely better then taking a chance on a roll of the dice...or weekend as it were...

One last thing, and then I have to pack. ZH has a lot of the usual noise, (the BAC will support Rick "QE is treason" Perry rumor is particularly special), but they also have something worth looking at:

There's a chart of "4 sigma" events by year since 1951. It's stunning. Since that kind of spiky behavior appears in any TF and by arb they jump to other markets, that's another reason why stops get hit more than they should.

It's also what's meant by today's Geek Word of the Day: pronounced lep-toe-cur-tosis.

Alright traders, I am not sure what it's doing, probably nothing.... Anyhow, 4450 will not be the top of this move. It will go up and down, as it always does but it has its sites set on 4525. Good Luck and have a great weekend...

did not make an intraday chart, but workeed out. I like these late afternoon sell offs.. (S&P) seems to be happening fairly often

Apparently c failing with double bottom & waiting go some up close my long to mark all close .If does will shrp also . no worry , limit also there also . moving bit by bit & no closing weekend , stay as if . will see next week.want 4523 test & breaks, cover sl below 4345 with pending around .

fontu

she isnt moving, nyt guys, until monday GL

Have a great weekend guys. Thanks for the tips you all shared. Really helps a lot.

closed the short... still got some on E/U.. as well as G/U and E/CHF...

and of course my favorite... S&P

I had a 0.1 lot 1.4460 and a 0.1 lot 1.4440 short two days ago and it went down to 1.4280 yesterday, i was thinkging about to close both of them to get good profits. but then i closed the 1.4440 order to get 160 profits. And then i moved my 1.4460 s/l to 1.4425, as well as set a 0.2 lots sell limit at 1.4350 with s/l 1.4425, was hoping to see they hit my sell limit then drop to below 1.4250 and have a down trend the entire next week. But unfortunately, it went up today and i lost 2*75-25=125 profit so almost give back the profit earned yesterday.
Too greedy is not good !

Hi Sisse,

all is well. Hope you are doing well too :-)


Like I said: that is a debated topic. Especially in Forex trading. I think, that I stated and described it here several times, that I am not sure if Forex is really a good medium to trade Elliott-based. It is not like stocks, where you have only one stock or an index, here in Forex we have two parts, for example EURUSD, we have the mood for Euro, and the mood for USD, and in that way we might not every time get as clear signals as we might want to see.

But as I said: in the bigger picture even an event like Lehman is only a bump in the road of an Elliott-wave. Such events might give us the extra turns, the extra consolidation, the extended waves etc. But in the end we will be able to see the impulse waves or the corrective waves on the chart.

Remember some nice Central Bank interventions: have they ever worked? They may have worked for some hours or days- but that was it most of the time. Why is that? they fail ultimately, because the governments and central banks are not in control of social mood and the markets.

Take Japan: has their QE (via zero interest rate policy) changed anything in their markets (stock markets)? They live in deflation since two decades now.

Deflationary death spiral - trigerd through bad social mood. Nothing can get the Japanese People to take debt or to consume. Nothing, except a change in social mood. And a change in social mood does not need an exogenous factor.

Here's how Bob Prechter once put it in his monthly Elliott Wave Theorist

"The exogenous-cause model fools investors exquisitely. One reason is that rationalization follows upon mood change. Mood change comes first, and attempts at reasoning come afterward. Financial markets express moods immediately, but reasoning lags, and by the time investors adopt compelling convictions, social mood is ready to charge in the other direction. Another reason is that social actions follow upon mood change, because they are results, not causes. Social events then provide a basis for rationalization about the stock market. All thinking that attends these events derives from mood changes that have occurred in the past and proceeds without a clue as to mood changes that lie directly ahead. Paradox after paradox results.

"Socionomists recognize that social mood is primary and has consequences in social action, so we never have to wrestle with paradox. To us, the markets’ pervasive irony is completely normal, somewhat predictable and wonderfully entertaining.

"This orientation does not mean that we are always right. It means only that we are not doomed to be chronically wrong. To succeed in the market, you must learn initially to embrace irony and paradox, at least as humans are unconsciously wired to interpret things. Once you get used to the world of socionomic causality, the irony and paradox melt away, and everything makes perfect sense."

You wrote: "At the end (not for trading) any currency is the reflexion of risk, rates and inflation in the long run."

That is right, but only partially, I think. The reflexion of risk is highle dependent of the humans which judge, meaning we have a socioeconomic component in it. Rates are set by humans. They are part of the herd. They are part of the herd and do not stand outside of it. Al this humans act on behalf not only of mathematical models, they too act on behalf of their social mood.

Then you chose "inflation" in the above mentioned sentence. Well, that is another problem and shows why this world is so messed up, but on the other hand shows truly nice how herding works:

Keynesianism --- why do they now nothing about "deflation" :-)


I hope that you can spent an outstanding weekend.

Best to you and all of the FF-Gang here,


Markus

Hola...

Went to sleep at 7am...took the day off. Closed out some remaining trades a while ago that filled on the run up this morning. Top three orders filled and hit their TP1- 10pips, TP2- 15pips, TP3- 20pips...aka...my "not-in-front-of-screens, partial close" method. Bottom two did not hit any of those, but were of course smaller in size. Final positions closed at these values...



And looked like this...



Safety stop at my max DD% was in no threat. Targets surpassed for the day...



And the week...



Very happy with how my new system is coming together. Another couple weeks of consistency and I will slowly start to increase my lot sizes...try to bleed a little more out of the bastards.

Hehe nice one bro Keep it up!

Gonna work on porting my stuff over to JForex over the weekend now... always resisted over the years since well the pricefeed is very good but JForex charts themselves... no comment... Since i work with market orders this metatrader lag is just annoying as hell since the candles open/close way too late... market has already moved on in most cases...