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EURUSD

  • #527,201
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:03pm Aug 18, 2011 5:03pm
Quoting Pipsforall
I'm wondering if the Asians are going to get up, see the European and US market carnage today, the $500 million dollar loan that an EU bank took from the ECB today, further bad economic news from Europe, the worst Philly Fed number since 1998, and say, hey maybe we're going to go risk averse and sell the Euro tonight? lol Its the forex markets so I don't predict anything, but that's what I would be thinking.
Although your tone is a little ironic, all I can say is: Yes, lower euro is always a possibility. Unfortunately I am not as smart as you are.
  • #527,202
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:05pm Aug 18, 2011 5:05pm
Quoting Pipsforall
I'm wondering if the Asians are going to get up, see the European and US market carnage today, the $500 million dollar loan that an EU bank took from the ECB today, further bad economic news from Europe, the worst Philly Fed number since 1998, and say, hey maybe we're going to go risk averse and sell the Euro tonight? lol Its the forex markets so I don't predict anything, but that's what I would be thinking.
not sure if i'm reading the data right but looks like there was worse in 09, for a sustained period..
  • #527,203
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:07pm Aug 18, 2011 5:07pm
Just the way 280 seemed impossible 20 hours ago...that's how another lunge to 1.4440 may be. Yet We may find ourselves there 20 hours from now. Wont be shocked.
  • #527,204
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:07pm Aug 18, 2011 5:07pm
Quoting attila
Although your tone is a little ironic, all I can say is: Yes, lower euro is always a possibility. Unfortunately I am not as smart as you are.
I've got a lot of shorts going right now, so I'm also biased. But, I know, I'll be covering soon enough, and saying wtf, why didn't I cover sooner, its the fundamentals that are keeping me in these trades longer than I should be. lol
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #527,205
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:08pm Aug 18, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
not sure if i'm reading the data right but looks like there was worse in 09, for a sustained period..
Its possible, someone on CNBC made that remark, so I can't vouch for its veracity.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #527,206
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:08pm Aug 18, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting Pipsforall
I'm wondering if the Asians are going to get up, see the European and US market carnage today, the $500 million dollar loan that an EU bank took from the ECB today, further bad economic news from Europe, the worst Philly Fed number since 1998, and say, hey maybe we're going to go risk averse and sell the Euro tonight? lol Its the forex markets so I don't predict anything, but that's what I would be thinking.
Well, daily chart is pointing towards 4200. So...

PS. Feeler long on the Aussie @ 3656. Overall looking for shorts higher up on it though. Just fading for now.
  • #527,207
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:09pm Aug 18, 2011 5:09pm
Quoting Pipsforall
Its possible, someone on CNBC made that remark, so I can't vouch for its veracity.
just going by the bar chart, maybe they've spun the statistics somehow for effect...
  • #527,208
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:13pm Aug 18, 2011 5:13pm
RE: the worst Philly Fed number since ???

IMO, if there's not some statistical mis-statement in it, this is a huge deal. Made more so by the fact that no professional forecast was anywhere close.

PS: Fibs, would you also delete my quote in your # ...245 above, as well. Thanks?
  • #527,209
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:15pm Aug 18, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting OldQuant
That is, if you can tell me how to do it...
edit the post in question, and at the bottom of the editor, you'll find a small radio-button that lets you delete it.
  • #527,210
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:18pm Aug 18, 2011 5:18pm
Quoting OldQuant
You delete yours, I'll delete mine. It's never good to raise any version of the N-word.
true, actually already done it, it was an ill-advised joke..
  • #527,211
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:19pm Aug 18, 2011 5:19pm
Here is my analysis of the EURUSD on a 15M chart. If the price hits the trend line by 9AM EST I will open a short position. My SL is contingent on my TP and my TP is contingent on the most recent significant low. Therefore my SL and TP can't be determined yet and will be set when the trade requirements are met. Let's see how it plays out.

http://i53.tinypic.com/i1jpjq.png
  • #527,212
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:19pm Aug 18, 2011 5:19pm
Quoting OldQuant
That is, if you can tell me how to do it...
delete, then look on the left of the pane and click confirm delete..
  • #527,213
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:21pm Aug 18, 2011 5:21pm
Wouldn't surprise me if asia just sells it...

Right now caged for some chop chop though.
  • #527,214
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:36pm Aug 18, 2011 5:36pm
Little inspiration for the markets...

Inserted Video
  • #527,215
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:53pm Aug 18, 2011 5:53pm
Quoting yoursong
Wouldn't surprise me if asia just sells it...

Right now caged for some chop chop though.
I just am getting a bad feeling about all this.

For example, the Fed is looking at shaky equity markets, signals that the economy's brakes are locking, if not a wheel coming off, and Gov. Perry fires a shot across the bow essentially calling any thought of a new QE "treason." Which means the Fed is on the radar scope of electoral politics already. And then there are FOMC members giving speeches about how it's not the Fed's job to support the equity markets.

Unusual funding activity in Europe, in the face of banks that are sick, at best, is scaring the markets precisely because it is unusual, whether it means anything or not.

If the Swiss don't do something, a Nestle's candy bar will cost as much as a gallon of gasoline, and then they're screwed, but if they do anything, they risk causing collateral damage elsewhere, because it's impossible to do two pole interventions and get them right.

Same with the Japanese.

If I had any sense, I'd stand down, and go trade the soybean meal/oil spread for a couple of days. Because with this much dissonance, something big could happen. What and which way plumb evades me, though.
  • #527,216
  • Aug 18, 2011 6:02pm Aug 18, 2011 6:02pm
Quoting OldQuant
I just am getting a bad feeling about all this.

For example, the Fed is looking at shaky equity markets, signals that the economy's brakes are locking, if not a wheel coming off, and Gov. Perry fires a shot across the bow essentially calling any thought of a new QE "treason." Which means the Fed is on the radar scope of electoral politics already. And then there are FOMC members giving speeches about how it's not the Fed's job to support the equity markets.

Unusual funding activity in Europe, in the face of banks that are sick, at best,...
we're charting new territory across the board and not just in financial markets, almost like a societal paradigm shift is starting to come into effect...

maybe all this talk of 2012 may have some substance to it...
  • #527,217
  • Aug 18, 2011 6:06pm Aug 18, 2011 6:06pm
Quoting OldQuant
I just am getting a bad feeling about all this.

For example, the Fed is looking at shaky equity markets, signals that the economy's brakes are locking, if not a wheel coming off, and Gov. Perry fires a shot across the bow essentially calling any thought of a new QE "treason." Which means the Fed is on the radar scope of electoral politics already. And then there are FOMC members giving speeches about how it's not the Fed's job to support the equity markets.

Unusual funding activity in Europe, in the face of banks that are sick, at best,...
Yeah same here. On the one side it's nothing will happen because its just too freakin big no matter which hotspot you are looking at the moment to let it fail. This would reach all people, not just the lower class. Especially the EZ experiment just was too big in my opinion that they would ever let it fail just like this...

On the other side things are so unusual at so many fronts something just has to ex/implode...
  • #527,218
  • Aug 18, 2011 6:06pm Aug 18, 2011 6:06pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
we're charting new territory across the board and not just in financial markets, almost like a societal paradigm shift is starting to come into effect...

maybe all this talk of 2012 may have some substance to it...
Do you think it's people coming to realization of what has been going on for so long now? I certainly hope so, things to me feel extremely unstable as it is.
  • #527,219
  • Aug 18, 2011 6:07pm Aug 18, 2011 6:07pm
Quoting OldQuant
I just am getting a bad feeling about all this.

For example, the Fed is looking at shaky equity markets, signals that the economy's brakes are locking, if not a wheel coming off, and Gov. Perry fires a shot across the bow essentially calling any thought of a new QE "treason." Which means the Fed is on the radar scope of electoral politics already. And then there are FOMC members giving speeches about how it's not the Fed's job to support the equity markets.

Unusual funding activity in Europe, in the face of banks that are sick, at best, is...
Hell in a hand basket i concur. Would be nice to have a dozen gold bars in the basement. Very confusing to speculate who when and how pulling the stings will play out...
  • #527,220
  • Aug 18, 2011 6:09pm Aug 18, 2011 6:09pm
Hmmm
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