Attachments: EURUSD

EURUSD

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#527,081
Aug 18, 2011 1:11pm Aug 18, 2011 1:11pm

Shaggy_rock
| Joined May 2010 | Status: No you don't. | 281 Posts

Well bulls should remain positive, wonder what Asia will do next.
There is a certain level i'm eyeballing to keep it bullish and it stayed 20 pips away from it.

good luck 2 all.

Old Habits Die Hard.

#527,082
Aug 18, 2011 1:14pm Aug 18, 2011 1:14pm

darimik
| Joined Jul 2009 | Status: yo | 3,577 Posts

still room to go..

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#527,083
Aug 18, 2011 1:14pm Aug 18, 2011 1:14pm

hkkhanus
| Joined Nov 2010 | Status: still a Probie!!! | 3,104 Posts

you planning to run my stop over aren't ya?
Bastard

Quoting needpips

Disliked

Yep....What do u think about this scenario? (I will probably test a long close to today...a DB scenario shaping up

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Ignored

#527,084
Aug 18, 2011 1:16pm Aug 18, 2011 1:16pm

sisse
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts

Quoting OldQuant

Disliked

I do have access, but with past-contract futures, I'd have to do some experimentation to find how to get those data to graph. If you have it, it would be very interesting indeed.

I'm going to look now to see I have access to a "continuous contract" metric that can be charted.

ALSO: If anyone has link to a reliable source for this (this is from ZH), could you post it? This could be important...
"FURTHER DISCUSSION ON COLLATERAL WOULD CANCEL SECOND GREEK BAILOUT- GOVT SOURCE - RTRS"

Ignored

Busy day anyway.

I had exactly the same problem. In any case until I find a way to fix that. Here is the daily ZN# (green/red) to E6#(black/white) and the H4 (for quick reference intraday) of the last move.

Interesting that during the start of the 2008 financial crisis the euro/dollar lead the break (daily chart point A) before the run on safety to treasuries (obvious as dollar bet on short term risk aversion) but when Lehman and crisis got out of control ZN lead by a few weeks and went to test all time highs breaking proportionality first and after correlation (euro/dollar rally too. Point B).

While in 2011 Treasuries lead first (Point C) by a few weeks and after euro/dollar break from highs. In the middle of the move, like in 2008, ZN and 6E broke proportionality first and after that correlation. However, the WTF moment is that ZN is at all time highs and euro/dollar is "flat" since the break....

Something is fundamentally wrong with the dollar (and the economy in general) . The H4 chart show even more clearly (point D and E) how the dollar is getting out of the equation in the charts. Point D and E are inversely correlated (cross lines) as expected with risk and EZ debt but point F broke all correlation and proportionality ("parallel" lines).

Obviously the relation wasnt, isn't and will never be 1:1 between ZN and 6E but the impact and relation of risk and dollar is definitively changing.

I am looking for intraday charts on the 2008 to have a more direct view.

sisse

Ps: messy chart but i think they show my point

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Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now

#527,085
Aug 18, 2011 1:18pm Aug 18, 2011 1:18pm

kuroro001
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts

Ready for a little pushup ? it seems audusd is the best regarding the risk/ratio.

COT: The precious data ignored

#527,086
Aug 18, 2011 1:18pm Aug 18, 2011 1:18pm

10piptrade
| Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Trader | 325 Posts

Quoting egkid

Disliked

Thanks for your input brother
what ur view till end of week

Ignored

Ok that was a joke, The key to current PA is 1.4252 this hold the rest of week which is only 1 day to go if we have clean break of this with confirmation then 1.4149 topside need 1.4442 to continue up, but the downside more likely to play out with 1.4149 to wrap up the week.but 1.4252 is key so sell rallies until 1.4442 goes

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Following the current trend

#527,087
Aug 18, 2011 1:29pm Aug 18, 2011 1:29pm

egkid
Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Trader | 9,414 Posts

Quoting 10piptrade

Disliked

Ok that was a joke, The key to current PA is 1.4252 this hold the rest of week which is only 1 day to go if we have clean break of this with confirmation then 1.4149 topside need 1.4442 to continue up, but the downside more likely to play out with 1.4149 to wrap up the week.but 1.4252 is key so sell rallies until 1.4442 goes

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Ignored

Yes ,Almost same view

Thanks for valuable analysis bro

#527,088
Aug 18, 2011 1:30pm Aug 18, 2011 1:30pm

fontu
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts

Quoting needpips

Disliked

Yep....What do u think about this scenario? (I will probably test a long close to today...a DB scenario shaping up

Attachment

Ignored

Posiible expanding triangle & even may try its best to do bear , but just think 5th ended rudimentary & next correction near 61.8% fibs , enough for the sense it be over & continue up next up without boundaries. Afterall with all those complexes in big mofu it attempted already resume the trend quite some time & so far pullback , turmoils again again happened & perhaps fatigued doing repeatedly & may make it happen now.
in usdx same happeneing big breakout happened long back , pullback timepass long time but ultimately to resume bear one day uninterrupted , may be this time it possible with last push up without proper correction & steady fashion with possible intervention & all power could have engaged & so fall dirrect next to the bottom.
fontu

Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++

#527,089
Aug 18, 2011 1:32pm Aug 18, 2011 1:32pm

bagXpert
| Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 486 Posts

Just for a presentation. I am Bagheria (Bag, more simple). I am french and a daytrader since 2001.
I read your messages since two monthes and I think it is a good moment to share my trades with you (or my analysts).
So good trades all! (excuse to all for my english

)

Bag

#527,090
Aug 18, 2011 1:33pm Aug 18, 2011 1:33pm

FibbinArchie
Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Trader | 13,228 Posts

just as a tie in to venice's alex jones film, here is a good little documentary about the truth behind democracy in ancient greece..

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...07403001272754

#527,091
Aug 18, 2011 1:34pm Aug 18, 2011 1:34pm

10piptrade
| Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Trader | 325 Posts

Quoting egkid

Disliked

Yes ,Almost same view
Thanks for valuable analysis bro

Ignored

You welcome bro np

Following the current trend

#527,092
Aug 18, 2011 1:35pm Aug 18, 2011 1:35pm

FibbinArchie
Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Trader | 13,228 Posts

Quoting sisse

Disliked

Busy day anyway.

I had exactly the same problem. In any case until I find a way to fix that. Here is the daily ZN# (green/red) to E6#(black/white) and the H4 (for quick reference intraday) of the last move.

Interesting that during the start of the 2008 financial crisis the euro/dollar lead the break (daily chart point A) before the run on safety to treasuries (obvious as dollar bet on short term risk aversion) but when Lehman and crisis got out of control ZN lead by a few weeks and went to test all time highs breaking proportionality first...

Ignored

this the fundy chart? thanks for posting..

#527,093
Aug 18, 2011 1:36pm Aug 18, 2011 1:36pm

seagreen
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Junior Bastard | 391 Posts

Quoting sisse

Disliked

Busy day anyway.

I had exactly the same problem. In any case until I find a way to fix that. Here is the daily ZN# (green/red) to E6#(black/white) and the H4 (for quick reference intraday) of the last move.

Interesting that during the start of the 2008 financial crisis the euro/dollar lead the break (daily chart point A) before the run on safety to treasuries (obvious as dollar bet on short term risk aversion) but when Lehman and crisis got out of control ZN lead by a few weeks and went to test all time highs breaking proportionality first...

Ignored

I don't think there's something wrong with the dollar now. It's the euro. If there was no european peripheral debt problem Euro would be at least at 1.50-1.60 before we got US economy and debt jitters. And then it would have fallen to where we are now (along with treasury yields) So, what I'm trying to say is yes the correlation is broken to some extent but not because of the US problems but mostly because of euro problems which came into the surface earlier.

#527,094
Aug 18, 2011 1:39pm Aug 18, 2011 1:39pm

kenfen69
Joined May 2008 | Status: Voodoo Lotions & Potions | 26,565 Posts

Quoting sisse

Disliked

I am looking for intraday charts on the 2008 to have a more direct view.

sisse

Ps: messy chart but i think they show my point

Ignored

You brought the sexy, sisse. Appreciate that...nicely done.

#527,095
Aug 18, 2011 1:39pm Aug 18, 2011 1:39pm

bagXpert
| Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 486 Posts

So, for august, my %trades winnings is 94,2%. It is very good but the others 5,8% make me lost a lot of money. So, I make between 2 and 6 trades per day. I have not favorite pair.
I trade with range, breakouts, momentum and trend. And my strategy work! Just learn the SL to win a lot of money

So eur/usd have no direction for the moment. Trend is flat. No signal bear or bull on momentum, breakouts or range.
Just wait for signals.

Good trades!

Bag