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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,041
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:55am Aug 17, 2011 11:55am
I remember when the Euro was at 1.19 and analysts were calling for 1.00 EUR/USD to come back. This reminds me of the same situation with analysts calling for 75, 72, and 60s. It's not gonna happen.
  • #26,042
  • Aug 17, 2011 12:13pm Aug 17, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting doctortyby
Hello Guys,
USD/JPY could resume the primary trend if the BOJ doesn't step in. We could have a fake breakout of 76.30 support (stop loss hunting). I hold to my long position with SL few pips under 76 level... TP around 50 DMA at 79

doctortyby
Am doing the same.
  • #26,043
  • Aug 17, 2011 12:35pm Aug 17, 2011 12:35pm
Quoting Joey Zazza
I remember when the Euro was at 1.19 and analysts were calling for 1.00 EUR/USD to come back. This reminds me of the same situation with analysts calling for 75, 72, and 60s. It's not gonna happen.
Same was said about the 0.80 level and look where we are now. BOJ will not be able to facilitate a longterm turn. Every single attempt to take the Jpy down will be met by fierce Jpy buying as the Japanese economy is way stronger than the US one. A situation which will last for years to come.

Eventhough we are not far from all time lows, every bounce is being sold. Looks to me that bears are still confident and in control, despite possible BOJ intervention. This pair is in a very strong downtrend, something which will not be broken by simple intervention.

Simple economics !
  • #26,044
  • Aug 17, 2011 12:39pm Aug 17, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting Joey Zazza
I remember when the Euro was at 1.19 and analysts were calling for 1.00 EUR/USD to come back. This reminds me of the same situation with analysts calling for 75, 72, and 60s. It's not gonna happen.
You're comparing apples to oranges here.
  • #26,045
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:03pm Aug 17, 2011 3:03pm
Guys if NY closes under 76.50 then watch for the low liquidity flush down to 75 after hours....

market will be thin and as every UJ trader knows this sucker is prone to such actions...
  • #26,046
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:54pm Aug 17, 2011 3:54pm
Hearing further anxiety over BOJ Intervention... A few Notes... They have not intervened outside their time zone on their own in 7 years......

Shorts....beware. lol
  • #26,047
  • Aug 17, 2011 4:11pm Aug 17, 2011 4:11pm
Getting too comfortable here....home on the range.
  • #26,048
  • Aug 17, 2011 4:21pm Aug 17, 2011 4:21pm
Quoting Joey Zazza
I remember when the Euro was at 1.19 and analysts were calling for 1.00 EUR/USD to come back. This reminds me of the same situation with analysts calling for 75, 72, and 60s. It's not gonna happen.
I dont know. When the USD/CHF was in the low .90's some were calling for .85 and many said it aint going (including yours truly) to happen.

Same with the YEN. At 86 it seemed to find some real solid support around that level. There were a lot a people who said it would break 80 and then 75 would then be easily reachable. But the central bank would never let that happen, right? They tried I guess, but now i wonder how long it will be when we see 80 again.

I tend to ignore the analyst but I would never say never.
  • #26,049
  • Aug 17, 2011 7:54pm Aug 17, 2011 7:54pm
Only a collective intervention can save the USDJPY now...
First it has to test 75.70 area....then likely a rally towards
80.00 by the end of the year....
  • #26,050
  • Edited 8:50pm Aug 17, 2011 8:23pm | Edited 8:50pm
Quoting Demon Bane
Only a collective intervention can save the USDJPY now...
First it has to test 75.70 area....then likely a rally towards
80.00 by the end of the year....

Yep, intervening before 76 is a waste of money now, they should just let it drop first. When it drops there will be blood in the retail world
Attached Images
  • #26,051
  • Aug 17, 2011 9:01pm Aug 17, 2011 9:01pm
Possible uptrend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26,052
  • Aug 17, 2011 9:05pm Aug 17, 2011 9:05pm
I am not sure if USD/JPY would break 76.30 support. If it breaks i think it could probably touch around 75 so i place a buy order at 76.35 with s/l at 76.15 and another buy order at 75 and s/l 74.7
  • #26,053
  • Aug 17, 2011 9:14pm Aug 17, 2011 9:14pm
I'm already thinking 72s, I've been had a buy limit set up for the day that comes. Should be a quick 400pts when it goes back to test 76.
  • #26,054
  • Edited 10:39pm Aug 17, 2011 9:34pm | Edited 10:39pm
Here is a weekly chart of the COT report for Yen.

I'm not an expert, in fact, a beginner, but does anyone agree that a minor uptrend with a chance to get a good entry to go short, due?

Commercial and Small Specs are moving towards long yen, Large Traders are extreme long yen and reduced their commitment last week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.png Size: 85 KB
  • #26,055
  • Aug 17, 2011 9:36pm Aug 17, 2011 9:36pm
Quoting werido
Possible uptrend
..or this:

http://instaforex.co.id/belajar-fore...ntinuation.png

re intervention: we've discussed it here few days ago, now i found this article from monday so it's a bit old but a nice sum-up.. btw G7?! seems to be a sort of utopia; G7 doesn't even support Japan's individual fx actions. Wrong time, lack of humanitarian context. Btw Japanese car makers announced record outputs for this year today - will europe & us, with problems on there own, hurry to spend money to prop up exchange rates for them?

Still have a small GTC buy limit at 75.87 :-)
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  • #26,056
  • Aug 18, 2011 2:42am Aug 18, 2011 2:42am
Quoting SIgurs
Hearing further anxiety over BOJ Intervention... A few Notes... They have not intervened outside their time zone on their own in 7 years......

Shorts....beware. lol
Well, another day without intervention is coming to an end and what do we see ? USd/Jpy dropping again.

This pair is being caught between fear and hope. Fear at 0.7650-0.7675; what if BOJ doesn't step in. Hope at 0.7630-07640; what if BOJ does step in.

This more or less tight consolidation, which has been going on for more than a week is building up steam. A move out of it will probably be a forcefull one.
  • #26,057
  • Aug 18, 2011 4:12am Aug 18, 2011 4:12am
it be cool to see it drop , if 76.30 is breached and boj doesnt steps in 68.00 will be the new target.

Quoting SIgurs
Well, another day without intervention is coming to an end and what do we see ? USd/Jpy dropping again.

This pair is being caught between fear and hope. Fear at 0.7650-0.7675; what if BOJ doesn't step in. Hope at 0.7630-07640; what if BOJ does step in.

This more or less tight consolidation, which has been going on for more than a week is building up steam. A move out of it will probably be a forcefull one.
  • #26,058
  • Aug 18, 2011 4:47am Aug 18, 2011 4:47am
Quote of the day:
Quote
Japan finance minister Noda says intervention is meaningless if not a surprise
(source: ransquawk, 10min ago)
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  • #26,059
  • Aug 18, 2011 4:49am Aug 18, 2011 4:49am
Quoting SIgurs
This pair is being caught between fear and hope. Fear at 0.7650-0.7675; what if BOJ doesn't step in. Hope at 0.7630-07640; what if BOJ does step in.
Why do you keep using figures like 0.xxxx and 0.xxx?? It's incorrect and you should be saying 76.30 and 76.40, not 0.7630 and 0.7640.
  • #26,060
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:04am Aug 18, 2011 5:04am
Quoting Joey Zazza
Why do you keep using figures like 0.xxxx and 0.xxx?? It's incorrect and you should be saying 76.30 and 76.40, not 0.7630 and 0.7640.
Point taken !

Well, another day without intervention is coming to an end and what do we see ? USd/Jpy dropping again.

This pair is being caught between fear and hope. Fear at 76.50-76.75; what if BOJ doesn't step in. Hope at 76.30-76.40; what if BOJ does step in.

This more or less tight consolidation, which has been going on for more than a week is building up steam. A move out of it will probably be a forcefull one.
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