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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #25,961
  • Aug 16, 2011 1:39am Aug 16, 2011 1:39am
Waiting for a breakout.

USD/JPY H1
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  • #25,962
  • Aug 16, 2011 2:00am Aug 16, 2011 2:00am
Well they've got to bring the yen down, because the demand they want to maintain on their export products will, it's self, drive the Yen up even more causing too high a price and hence less demand. So the starting figure of this pair has to be high and they'll have to push it up to counteract the safe-haven loading into the Yen. But when?
  • #25,963
  • Aug 16, 2011 2:16am Aug 16, 2011 2:16am
Attached
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  • #25,964
  • Aug 16, 2011 4:07am Aug 16, 2011 4:07am
USD/JPY keeps on consolidating. Imo, this is no consolidation prior to a move up, seems more like waiting for a blow down to sub 0.7600

Important numbers coming out this afternoon which will probably show, yet again, in what poor state the US economy is in -- hence, another leg down for the USD/JPY.

As far as intervention is concerned. My guess is that the Japanese will not intervene on their own as the effects of such action is mostly shortlived. Problem is that the G7/G20/US is not willing to to lend a hand, hence JPY will keep on gaining.
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  • #25,965
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:00am Aug 16, 2011 6:00am
Every single attempt to move up has been met by fierce selling for more than a week. Imo, highly unlikely that USD will break this channel to the upside without intervention.

And as said before, there seems to be a lack of G7/G20 support to lend a helping hand. The US is most certainly not interested to intervene to move the JPY down as it would hurt their export badly. Something whick is, given current economic situation, is not desirable.
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  • #25,966
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:02am Aug 16, 2011 6:02am
Quoting SIgurs
Every single attempt to move up has been met by fierce selling for more than a week. Imo, highly unlikely that USD will break this channel to the upside without intervention.

And as said before, there seems to be a lack of G7/G20 support to lend a helping hand. The US is most certainly not interested to intervene to move the JPY down as it would hurt their export badly. Something whick is, given current economic situation, is not desirable.
In 2003, the Japanese intervened multiple times without global support.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/Pubs/I...24/ifdp824.pdf
  • #25,967
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:10am Aug 16, 2011 6:10am
That's seven years ago ! In todays hyper globalized world, lone wolf interventions have shortlived effects.
  • #25,968
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:22am Aug 16, 2011 6:22am
Every country wants cheaper currency to fuel growth.

This has been the problem and BOJ intervention alone won't work.

76 break is coming.
  • #25,969
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:31am Aug 16, 2011 6:31am
BOJ should do what swiss did. use rumor
  • #25,970
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:33am Aug 16, 2011 6:33am
Quoting ultra_knight
Every country wants cheaper currency to fuel growth.

This has been the problem and BOJ intervention alone won't work.

76 break is coming.
The BOJ intervention a few weeks ago is proof that such actions are shortlived ! Back to pre-intervention levels. These kind of interventions are not only shortlived, they are also very expensive.
  • #25,971
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:34am Aug 16, 2011 6:34am
Just because there have been no multi billion dollar interventions for a few days does not mean that BOJ is not actively supporting this pair on a semi regular basis through kampo or some other channel.

Also, do not remain focused only on USDJPY for an indication of overall Yen strength. Their goal is usually to adjust not only USDJPY but also also the "weighting" of the YEN with respect to a basket of yen crosses. (A bit like a trade weighted index).

Accordingly, they may act quietly upon other YEN cross pairing(s) to slowly get the desired result.
  • #25,972
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:35am Aug 16, 2011 6:35am
Quoting BurgerKing
BOJ should do what swiss did. use rumor
Even rumor tactics are shortlived. Let markets solve this, it's will proove to be the only solution on a long term basis.
  • #25,973
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:39am Aug 16, 2011 6:39am
Quoting BurgerKing
BOJ should do what swiss did. use rumor
but this guy do nothing .sucks .
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #25,974
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:52am Aug 16, 2011 6:52am
Quoting geniusztc
but this guy do nothing .sucks .
They will probably intervene, however not at these prices ! Don't see them doing anything till we see 0.7500 at the very least.

US numbers coming up in 40 minutes, should be another trigger to sell the USD. Imo, many don't realize that US economic dominance is fading. Have serious doubts about the ability of the US to get their show back on the road. Middle class is vanishing at a rapid pace. Always a bad sign for the economy as it ain't the rich only who can pull an economy out of the mud.
  • #25,975
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:55am Aug 16, 2011 6:55am
Big Sellers Wont Give Up,Hopefully This Kind of Pattern not Valid...
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  • #25,976
  • Aug 16, 2011 7:07am Aug 16, 2011 7:07am
Quoting TrendTraders
Big Sellers Wont Give Up,Hopefully This Kind of Pattern not Valid...
They are not giving up for very good reasons:

- US economy is a mess
- Japan is showing signs of recovery
- lone wolf interventions are notorious for being shortlived
- no foreign support to take the Yen lower
- possibilty of QE3, another round of money printing

Lot's of pleople trying to pick a bottom on these kind of pairs. It's like trying to catch a falling knife. It can be extremely rewarding, however in most of the cases it prooves to be very risky and often results in considerable losses.

Now, let's just await the US numbers, due to come out in 25 minutes, and see in what shape the US economy is in.

USD/JPY, trending lower in release of numbers, suggests that numbers will be bad.
  • #25,977
  • Aug 16, 2011 7:12am Aug 16, 2011 7:12am
Quoting SIgurs
They are not giving up for very good reasons:

- US economy is a mess
- Japan is showing signs of recovery
- lone wolf interventions are notorious for being shortlived
- no foreign support to take the Yen lower

Lot's of pleople trying to pick a bottom on these kind of pairs. It's like trying to catch a falling knife. It can be extremely rewarding, however in most of the cases it prooves to be very risky and often results in considerable losses.

Now, let's just await the US numbers, due to come out in 25 minutes, and see in what shape the US...
Quoting SIgurs
US numbers coming up in 40 minutes, should be another trigger to sell the USD. Imo, many don't realize that US economic dominance is fading. Have serious doubts about the ability of the US to get their show back on the road. Middle class is vanishing at a rapid pace. Always a bad sign for the economy as it ain't the rich only who can pull an economy out of the mud.
The US economy is in complete disarray. A total "mess". People are stabbing each other in the streets for a loaf of bread. Buildings are crumbling. Babies are crying everywhere. It's anarchy!!! (Oh, and I'm short the US dollar. Or maybe long??? )
  • #25,978
  • Aug 16, 2011 7:16am Aug 16, 2011 7:16am
Quoting Mpt
Also, do not remain focused only on USDJPY for an indication of overall Yen strength. Their goal is usually to adjust not only USDJPY but also also the "weighting" of the YEN with respect to a basket of yen crosses. (A bit like a trade weighted index).

Accordingly, they may act quietly upon other YEN cross pairing(s) to slowly get the desired result.
Here are the Yen futures looking to make a break to the upside towards the all time high.
They look unsurprisingly similar to USD/JPY but just inversed.

Yen Futures H1
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USD/JPY H1
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  • #25,979
  • Aug 16, 2011 7:23am Aug 16, 2011 7:23am
Quoting fosking
Here are the Yen futures looking to make a break to the upside towards the all time high.
They look unsurprisingly similar to USD/JPY but just inversed.
A break to all time high, yes. Unless the US economy shows clear and strong signs of recovery. Highly unlikely, but possible. lol
  • #25,980
  • Aug 16, 2011 7:25am Aug 16, 2011 7:25am
Quoting SIgurs
A break to all time high, yes. Unless the US economy shows clear and strong signs of recovery. Highly unlikely, but possible. lol
It will take more than just one set of good numbers from the US.
It could take weeks for clear signs of strength for the USD.
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