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  • #522,401
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:39pm Aug 14, 2011 4:39pm
Quoting OldQuant
Is that Emanual Derman you're talking about?
He is ingenious...
  • #522,402
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:39pm Aug 14, 2011 4:39pm
I am looking for easy 30 pips with this weekend gap and risking 8 pips.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #522,403
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:40pm Aug 14, 2011 4:40pm
Quoting OldQuant
Okay, I lied earlier about no more smart a$$. If you know of a Gap that isn't closed yet, let me have the address; I need to pick up a sweater.
  • #522,404
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:40pm Aug 14, 2011 4:40pm
Quoting kenfen69
Attachment

That one?
Sorry...wrong one. This one?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekend anylysis.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #522,405
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:43pm Aug 14, 2011 4:43pm
Quoting kenfen69
Toe in water...short at 83
Closed half at +10.
  • #522,406
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:44pm Aug 14, 2011 4:44pm
Quoting kenfen69
Sorry...wrong one. This one?

Attachment
That is soooooo pretty... i'm sure thats the right one...
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #522,407
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:47pm Aug 14, 2011 4:47pm
Quoting kaspopsicle
That is soooooo pretty... i'm sure thats the right one...
Jawn does glorious effortlessly!
  • #522,408
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:49pm Aug 14, 2011 4:49pm
Hmm... looks like a few big boys woke up... lol
  • #522,409
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:52pm Aug 14, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting yoursong
Btw for all those GAPpers again...

There is only _one_ thing that you could probably say is right and in comparison true in the forex market (and like Derman likes to say it if something is right it does not mean its true)... it is a trending market. That's all you can assume about it. You cannot predict it (again like he mentions then there would be no markets) but it trends... on some timeframe or another. Now check your "gaps" and check the lower tfs "trend" short before close. Guess where Wellington picks up most of the time if the trend...
PS: to get on some ignore lists: and that's why MAs used in the right way (remember tools, models whatever have specific environments in which they work in!!!) work in forex and with a precision that only very few can imagine. The problem is people just use them in the wrong environments e.g. simple MA crosses on EU... just like everyone and his grandma threw black-scholes at anything they could without understanding its complexity, side effects and most importantly working parameters.
  • #522,410
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:52pm Aug 14, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting kenfen69
Attachment

That one?
  • #522,411
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:53pm Aug 14, 2011 4:53pm
Quoting yoursong
He is ingenious...
Yeah, he was always a bright guy. Little bit of irony here: he and Fischer Black put together the first bond option pricing model that didn't have theoretically possible less-than-zero forward rates on T-bills. The market embraced it like sliced bread, even though nobody outside of Goldman knew how to solve it quickly enough to use it in trading until Jamshidian, then at Merrill, figured out a generalization and put it out to break the edge.

The irony is that now, a model better have the possibility of less-than-zero rates. We've already had them. And Japan had them after the model became popular. It's not used much any more.
  • #522,412
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:56pm Aug 14, 2011 4:56pm
tried another short at 4278
SL just above 4291

TP 4252
  • #522,413
  • Aug 14, 2011 5:01pm Aug 14, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting kenfen69
Edit: Have a pending order at 42885 as well. Will dabble till 4300 is cracked convincingly.
Canceled for now.
  • #522,414
  • Aug 14, 2011 5:02pm Aug 14, 2011 5:02pm
Quoting kenfen69
Canceled for now.
Gunnin for some stops it appears.
  • #522,415
  • Aug 14, 2011 5:03pm Aug 14, 2011 5:03pm
Quoting Venice
Gunnin for some stops it appears.
Why the heck not?!

They are bastards after all.
  • #522,416
  • Aug 14, 2011 5:07pm Aug 14, 2011 5:07pm
Dabbled again at 91. Another order at 985

Back in a bit.
  • #522,417
  • Aug 14, 2011 5:11pm Aug 14, 2011 5:11pm
Quoting yoursong
just like everyone and his grandma threw black-scholes at anything they could without understanding its complexity, side effects and most importantly working parameters.
Don't forget the continuously tradable hedge that must be there in order to use the riskless rate! That error on the buy side's part gave the street untold millions in mispriced options. To this day, there are still a lot of interest rate caps priced with Black.
  • #522,418
  • Aug 14, 2011 5:12pm Aug 14, 2011 5:12pm
Quoting OldQuant
All kidding aside, here's why I really thought there was a bounce coming.

This is just in prototype, and being monitored and stored only since mid-last week. All it is: the number of changes in bid and offer running through the ECN from a point in time (here, 17:15ET). Typically, when the offer count exceeds the bid count, the market is/will trend down. All the way down this evening, offer count ran anywhere from 100 to 300 over bid count.

The left set of boxes (bids left, offers right, of course) is the state close to the bottom...
Have you tested this more? I looked into something quite similar over the weekend to be used on the indices... you can also answer in private if you prefer.
  • #522,419
  • Aug 14, 2011 5:16pm Aug 14, 2011 5:16pm
Hello all...~~
try small short @ 4288..
sl @ 4303...15 pips...
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #522,420
  • Aug 14, 2011 5:18pm Aug 14, 2011 5:18pm
Bastards!!!
Quoting hkkhanus
tried another short at 4278
SL just above 4291

TP 4252
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