DislikedI had a quick look, but I still can't find those trends.

Inserted Code% of times a price move of X is followed by another in the same direction ========================================================================= Pair | X 0.25% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 2% -------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- EURUSD 49 53 53 49 47 GBPUSD 50 44 48 52 49 USDJPY 51 52 50 49 49 USDCHF 51 52 51 50 53Ignored

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/190212/public/prob_matrix.png

Look at the first bunch, for moves of 0.2%. L is the "level" - how many 0.2% moves we had in the same direction. So L3 means a move of 0.6% from the last local extrema. You can see that at each "level", we have an almost 50% probability of continuing OR reversing, thus the market is very similar to a random-walk. In the [] we have the instance count. So, for L1, we had 3485 times where the trend continued after a 0.2% move, and 2997 times where it reversed. This is on EUR/USD, from Nov 2010 to Jul 2011. A 0.2% move is around 28 pips with EUR/USD at 1.4.

Note: The C (continue in direction of trend) probability seems larger than 50%, but this is because these stats ignore the spread. If you take the spread into account, the prob is exactly 50%.

This is without taking the time to make the 0.2% move into account. If you start considering time, things get more interesting. But now we are getting into EDGE territory.