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Where is the EDGE in trading? The most important thing in trading!

  • #561
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:47am Aug 14, 2011 3:47am
edge in religion and church full of money

Let's Prey
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #562
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:53am Aug 14, 2011 3:53am
Quoting Suffo
edge in religion and church full of money

Let's Prey
You see there is a problem. If somone is long aud/usd and someone else is short aud/usd than how can a prayer help both of them?
  • #563
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:58am Aug 14, 2011 3:58am
Quoting reres
euro/chf?? Historically it has been the most range trading currency. Or have you come to the world of forex in last few monhts only? I guess ur new to this fx.
Since you guys are talking Team Swissy here's some basics:
Usd/Chf: 10 year, 10,000pip downtrend
Eur/Chf: 4 year, 6,000pip downtrend
Gbp/Chf: 4 year, 12,000pip downtrend

I've only been around for the last few thousand. Moves like that are what immortalize the average retail trader.
  • #564
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:03am Aug 14, 2011 4:03am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Since you guys are talking Team Swissy here's some basics:
Usd/Chf: 10 year, 10,000pip downtrend
Eur/Chf: 4 year, 6,000pip downtrend
Gbp/Chf: 4 year, 12,000pip downtrend

I've only been around for the last few thousand. Moves like that are what immortalize the average retail trader.

Take away the last year in Team Swissy and lets see those stats

http://www.x-convert.com/images/char...EUR_10year.png
  • #565
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:07am Aug 14, 2011 4:07am
Here is how I feel about the markets:

There is obvious "influences" on the market that determines the direction of the market. You all know the drill, Banks, Central Banks, Goverments and you, the live trader.

Just this last week Swiss and Japs tries to stop their currency from strengthening more, it did not work right away (and if you thought from its announcment it would change the direction, once again a lossing trade).

Then S&P downgrade, all bets against the dollar, suddenly good employment and retail figures, you have an idea where the markets "MUST" go, it just don't go when you want it too. The right trade at the wrong time is a wrong trade right?

Here is my 5 cents, most people make forex trading to complicated. You will loose, you will win. It depends on you really how you will react.

You can win/loose 50/50% of the time. With right money management mathemetically you will be profitable. But how do we trade? When it is a loosing trade, you will keep it in just a bit longer for maybe it will reverse, yet when it is a profitable trade you either take profit to soon or too late.

Odds are always against the trader, that is, when you are mentally not right or ready for the markets.



I am researching fundemental trading and I am busy with a blog showing the results of it. I came to couple of conclusions so far:

1. The market does respond to press releases and economic releases, but in different ways:

  1. The market responds more violently to negative news than positive news.
  2. Some "HIGH CHANCE TO MOVE THE MARKET" releases do not always give you a BIG MOVE
  3. Some pairs gives more movement to releases than others
  4. The Pope is Catholic, deal with it

2. Each pair have its own personality, some are twins and reacts alike, some are totally unique

3. All CHF pairs are HIGH RISK, movement rarely less then 100 pips for a day, some months averaging 150 pips per day, some days moves even 750 pips.

4. USA Non Farm releases always moves the market, and profit can be made 95% of the time quickly but not so easily.

5. A trading strat. that works on USD/JPY or USD/CHF will rarely work on GBP/USD and EUR/USD

To get the edge really depends on your attitude and diciplin. There is successful traders, which brings me to the conclusion that you can make money with forex, so someone got the edge, so the edge is there for you to find.

  • #566
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:15am Aug 14, 2011 4:15am
NEXT EDGE U CAN`T WIN IN LONG TERM ONLY WITH ENTRYS - EXITS (including sl) has an bigger values as ENTRYS

may one of you will think about it and will find it makes sense. (after some time of thinking - that was a new "fact" - it need time to understand and adapt/test it in your tradingstrategie). It is up to you - like always.

For those traders they can´t realise that, they will loose in longterm.

enigma4x
enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do
  • #567
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:17am Aug 14, 2011 4:17am
Quoting reres
Take away the last year in Team Swissy and lets see those stats
-Aug '10

Usd/Chf: 9 year, 7,500pip downtrend
Eur/Chf: 3 year, 3,000pip downtrend
Gbp/Chf: 3 year, 8,000pip downtrend
  • #568
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:24am Aug 14, 2011 4:24am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
-Aug '10

Usd/Chf: 9 year, 7,500pip downtrend
Eur/Chf: 3 year, 3,000pip downtrend
Gbp/Chf: 3 year, 8,000pip downtrend

coulda/woulda/shoulda ... nice one and often it change daily for beginners ... ^^

enigam4x
enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do
  • #569
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:31am Aug 14, 2011 4:31am
Quoting reres
euro/chf?? Historically it has been the most range trading currency. Or have you come to the world of forex in last few monhts only? I guess ur new to this fx.
I thought we are talking about recent trending behavior. What use is it to trade a currency that has been trending and then went into a range for 2 years (gbp/jpy).

But I guess it's best to wait then another 2 years until it is trending again (if we go by your logic)

Quoting reres
To support any claim there has to be some proof. You just believe he did research and you just believe fx markets are trending more than 50%. Thats ignorant and stupid. Get real.
Actually I did an analysis myself, that is why I know he is correct. And no he didn't claim that trends occur more than 50%, but that when price moved down, there is a higher than 50% chance that it will still continue in that direction.
And that statement I know to be true.
The question is only how far it will continue. There you then can look for the right combination of win-rate and R:R ratio.


Really, do some scientific research, man. Just arguing on a forum won't get you anywhere.
  • #570
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:42am Aug 14, 2011 4:42am
Morning all. I've started reading these posts again like watching soaps and subsequently am falling out with my wife lol. Its easy to see what is trending long term but its the short term opposite swings that kill people off especially when Mr or Mrs Average only have a limited stop loss. you can see this happen if you trade Elliot system. i trade 4 pairs not at same time and all my tech indicators are in the bin i rely solely on times of day to trade and as long as my wife gets a holiday out of it she lets me trade lol, happy days
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #571
  • Aug 14, 2011 5:24am Aug 14, 2011 5:24am
Quoting enigma4x
coulda/woulda/shoulda ... nice one and often it change daily for beginners ... ^^

enigam4x
I recall when I was picking bottoms on those pairs last summer.. back when I was smarter than the market. I just hope I can ride another trend like that, from the start though.
  • #572
  • Aug 14, 2011 6:11am Aug 14, 2011 6:11am
hi,
in the general sense reres is correct,but only due to the fact that his belief is based on ,and the same as the majority of traders trading pa, in the simplist form.

i personally trade some of the styles reres prefers,mispricings and oddities in a given pairs price,i found a no off curcumstanses within prices of various instruments that can be capatalized apon,some come from charts some from % value changes across indicies and a selection of pairs i monitor .some of these trades i take ,i dont have any charts up atall.

having said that,i need to monitor prices for long periods of time waiting for these price descrepencies.which bores the living day out of me,so i scalp the i min chart for 2 reasons,the first to fill a side of my personality that is restricted in my previous stated method,exitement,risk,adrelalin rushes ect,ect,all the things we must control to be sucsesfull,the 2nd reason is to fill the hours and somtimes days of waiting for my set ups.

does it work yes,i look for s/r and channell lines,if they line up with higher time frames then i look closer,i switch to quote prise and look for the hot number,the quote price tell me if orders are sitting at the level in question,historically we know they were,i can make an entry on the hot no,its not meaning a 50 pips reversal,im not looking for that but well over 50 /% of the time , there will be a 10 to 20 pip clearing period often a couple of oppurtunities to gain a no of pips at this junction,then yes support may well fail,but im long out.so i guess my point is,reres is right,but study more in depth and he is wrong,not many people have the desire to zoom in to there study to see what is definatly a oppurtunity to make some pips.

does it fail,yes but far less than 50 % of the time.if i was looking for a clear reversal then my odds would be backk to 50 50

regards
william
  • #573
  • Aug 14, 2011 6:45am Aug 14, 2011 6:45am
Quoting Custos
Really, do some scientific research, man. Just arguing on a forum won't get you anywhere.
I had a quick look, but I still can't find those trends.
Inserted Code
% of times a price move of X is followed by another in the same direction
=========================================================================

Pair | X    0.25%   0.5%    1%      1.5%    2%
--------    ----    ----    ----    ----    ----
EURUSD      49      53      53      49      47
GBPUSD      50      44      48      52      49
USDJPY      51      52      50      49      49
USDCHF      51      52      51      50      53
  • #574
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:10am Aug 14, 2011 7:10am
Quoting euclid
I had a quick look, but I still can't find those trends.
Inserted Code
% of times a price move of X is followed by another in the same direction
=========================================================================
 
Pair | X    0.25%   0.5%    1%      1.5%    2%
--------    ----    ----    ----    ----    ----
EURUSD      49      53      53      49      47
GBPUSD      50      44      48      52      49
USDJPY      51      52      50      49      49
USDCHF      51      52      51      50      53
Thats the data. Custos is that the scientific reasearch u also did yourself?
  • #575
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:18am Aug 14, 2011 7:18am
Quoting Custos
I thought we are talking about recent trending behavior. What use is it to trade a currency that has been trending and then went into a range for 2 years (gbp/jpy).
Went into range?
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/2y?gbpjpy=x
It moved 3000 pip...more than chf in previous 8 years.And there are occasional 1500 pip swings.

If we are trading statistics than we need to trade it accordingly with historical data.

Besides, euro/chf has the most negative correlation among all pairs and it was used in most hedging strategies. Do some more reasearch next time.
  • #576
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:49am Aug 14, 2011 7:49am
Quoting reres
Went into range?
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/2y?gbpjpy=x
It moved 3000 pip...more than chf in previous 8 years.And there are occasional 1500 pip swings.

If we are trading statistics than we need to trade it accordingly with historical data.

Besides, euro/chf has the most negative correlation among all pairs and it was used in most hedging strategies. Do some more reasearch next time.
First chart is gbp/jpy, second is eur/chf, both weekly time-frame.

Now tell me which of the two was trending more? I don't know why I even have to show you that. it is so obvious, that the last two years eur/chf trended incredibly while gbp/jpy really didn't do much.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy w1 14.8.2011.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf w1 14.8.2011.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #577
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:55am Aug 14, 2011 7:55am
Quoting reres
Thats the data. Custos is that the scientific reasearch u also did yourself?
exactly, but while you just check 250 occurences it seems, I try to get more meaningful data of +10,000 instances.

Also why you don't try to do backtests, where a program actually takes trades, so then you can see if the equity curve would actually rise or fall. In my eyes that makes more sense.

Anyways, I am done arguing with you like all the others. You just seem to like debating, maybe you should go into politics.

Wish you good luck in trading nonetheless, cause you sir will definitely need it.
  • #578
  • Aug 14, 2011 8:06am Aug 14, 2011 8:06am
Quoting Custos
exactly, but while you just check 250 occurences it seems, I try to get more meaningful data of +10,000 instances.
You will get the same results on +10 000 instances. Check it out as you obviously just talk BS.

Quote
Wish you good luck in trading nonetheless, cause you sir will definitely need it.
Nope. Luck is only needed for those that dont trade on probabilites and rely instead on magic. So i wish u good luck bro.
  • #579
  • Aug 14, 2011 8:08am Aug 14, 2011 8:08am
Quoting reres
You will get the same results on +10 000 instances. Check it out as you obviously just talk BS.


Nope. Luck is only needed for those that dont trade on probabilites and rely instead on magic. So i wish u good luck bro.
hugtime , haha.

Thanks for the good wishes!
  • #580
  • Aug 14, 2011 9:08am Aug 14, 2011 9:08am
Quoting HiddenGap
flip a coin and the odds are 50/50 that the outcome will be heads or tails. Flip a coin 10 times and the last 8 are heads. What is the probability that the next will be heads? 50%. However, because we can observe a trend, we know that "betting" on heads is a better bet than bettting on tails. But the probabilities have not changed.

We know that at some point the outcomes will tend towards the actual probabilites (the Law of Large Numbers). So at some point, we would get more tails than heads to even things out. Yet any one observation independant...
Thankyou for your answer.

This is an example of gamblers fallacy. The flaw is in thinking that "we would get more tails than heads to even things out." In fact, the mean will tend to move closer to even without getting more tails than heads. This creates the illusion that subsequant flips are related to previous results.

This is what worries me about trends; they are easy to identify after the fact, but at any current point is the chance of a trend continuing rather than ending better than 50%?

After studying Darkstars stuff I can only suppose that it depends on the nature and size of order flow that is causing the trend.

Quoting Oodr
See the attached pdf file.
Thanks for that, it looks like an interesting read. I'll study it later.
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