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  • #1,321
  • Aug 11, 2011 9:24pm Aug 11, 2011 9:24pm
Tom,
You pointed out something that was a really eye opener to me during the last webinar - the correlation between s&p and AU (chart1 is Gold/AU, chart2 is AU/s&p). Before then I had always used more of Gold and AU correlation, the charts below prove you too right. Thanks a lot man!!!

You also answerred my question on which of DOW and S&P is more considerred by traders, your answer was S&P, i however observe that the media cites DOW more even msnbc, I don't know if you also notice that...I am wondering why?
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  • #1,322
  • Aug 11, 2011 10:39pm Aug 11, 2011 10:39pm
Quoting jeffokes
Thank you very much Pipz4me. Wrt D, what if you combine the lowest white bar and that pin bar and look at them as two hr tf bar, kinda super - imposing hr2 on hr1?

I am still studying the pattern and it really seems cool, i mean the rate of it's success. Sorry to bother you more, also look at the following charts also and help clarify please. I want to be sure I am getting the stuff.
My views on the first chart.
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  • #1,323
  • Aug 11, 2011 10:54pm Aug 11, 2011 10:54pm
Quoting simplebeans
Awesome thread Tom, i am finally catching up as ive finished the T2W thread now and just making my way through this one. ...
Tom has / had a T2W Thread? Can I pls have the link posted here or sent via pm?.
Thanks!
  • #1,324
  • Aug 11, 2011 11:26pm Aug 11, 2011 11:26pm
Quoting cprao
My views on the first chart.
I was and still hoping you'll also comment on the second chart as well.

Any other person should also feel free to comment.
  • #1,325
  • Aug 11, 2011 11:46pm Aug 11, 2011 11:46pm
Quoting jeffokes
I was and still hoping you'll also comment on the second chart as well.

Any other person should also feel free to comment.
These are just my views.

Edit. Per Tom, more reliable SPF setups are on Daily TF.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,326
  • Aug 12, 2011 12:00am Aug 12, 2011 12:00am
Quoting cprao
These are just my views.

Edit. Per Tom, more reliable SPF setups are on Daily TF.

Thank you so much Cprao!!...I really appreciate this.
  • #1,327
  • Aug 12, 2011 2:39am Aug 12, 2011 2:39am
tom,what did you say about % for BUOB/BEOB?
thanx
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  • #1,328
  • Aug 12, 2011 2:53am Aug 12, 2011 2:53am
Quoting jeffokes
Thank you so much Cprao!!...I really appreciate this.
I pretty much concur with cprao. The only thing I can add is that to validate SFP you need to have space and a discernible previous swing high or low. SFP is a heads up of a short term reversal in a ranging market and not a signal for overall trend reversal so its useful to bear that in mind. I find it extremely reliable on all TF's.

if you are using SFP for trade entries then I can say its best to be very picky and identify FTA that will give up at least 1R, and to use it mainly in a sideways market, or with trend in a trending market. If you do that you will trade it profitably.
  • #1,329
  • Aug 12, 2011 3:43am Aug 12, 2011 3:43am
Quoting Malarky
Hi guys
Crude at strong level and 38 fib retracement.
Cheers
I looked at that for a short too but there is an unfilled gap that you can see on the H1 and I thought price would try and gravitate towards filling this so I stayed out.
  • #1,330
  • Aug 12, 2011 4:01am Aug 12, 2011 4:01am
Quoting Miko1
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/412/67468270.png

Tom I would like to hear your way of playing them.

I have read that the entry trigger is the break of the neckline of the lows on a double top (the highs between a double bottom). But this often screws the R. I usually play them just at the open of the candle that produced the SPF.
I like to play everything as close to the source as possible.

If I saw a triple top on the D1 then I want to be in short from as close to the top as possible. Sometimes this is not always easy if you trade D1 PA.

In your example, on the SPF, I would put a limit order to sell a retracement of that D1 bar into the first significant H1 level.
  • #1,331
  • Edited 6:54am Aug 12, 2011 4:53am | Edited 6:54am
Quoting jeffokes
Tom has / had a T2W Thread? Can I pls have the link posted here or sent via pm?.
Thanks!
I had a fair few. Here are the best ;

Welcome : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...0-welcome.html

Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Trading...But Were Afraid To Ask! : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...fraid-ask.html

The Key to Winning : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...y-winning.html

Making Money Trading : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...y-trading.html

(This thread outlines the strategy I used when I first became profitable - this thread, "Fail Better" is a step on from this - the main difference being the fact that we focus less on bar setups and there are many new patterns not covered in that original thread e.g. the SFP)

Potential Setups : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...al-setups.html

A Few Things I've Learnt : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...ve-learnt.html

Lessons From Successful Traders : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...l-traders.html

Ideas For Increasing Trader Performance : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...rformance.html

Advice For Getting A Job In Trading : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...b-trading.html

Confessions Of A Local : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...ons-local.html
  • #1,332
  • Edited 7:04am Aug 12, 2011 6:51am | Edited 7:04am
Quoting jeffokes
Tom,
please help clarify for me so that I can be sure - which of the following "boxed" is/are sfp ?
Thank you. - Jeff
Here are my thoughts :

A, B and C from the first image you posted (not shown here) are valid SFP's.

In the image below, E and G are also valid SFP's.

I do not think D is.

The reason for this is that I don't call the move up that I have marked with the yellow arrow as enough of a "swing up".

I would have been concentrating on the swing low that is circled.

I also want to see the SFP occur on the bar that BREAKS the lows not the next one.

I don't merge bars.
Attached Image
  • #1,333
  • Aug 12, 2011 7:03am Aug 12, 2011 7:03am
Quoting jeffokes
Thank you very much Pipz4me. Wrt D, what if you combine the lowest white bar and that pin bar and look at them as two hr tf bar, kinda super - imposing hr2 on hr1?

I am still studying the pattern and it really seems cool, i mean the rate of it's success. Sorry to bother you more, also look at the following charts also and help clarify please. I want to be sure I am getting the stuff.
I do not think H is one. I have marked the swing lows I would be looking at with dashes. The candle that breaks the highest one does not close above.

The SFP marked with the letter "I" could be one but it hard to tell. It looks like an equal high but I have given it the benefit of the doubt and ticked it...however, it MUST have traded higher that the prevous swing high and closed below.

If it went even 1 pip higher that is valid but an equal or lower high is NOT an SFP.

J is a valid setup.
Attached Image
  • #1,334
  • Aug 12, 2011 7:10am Aug 12, 2011 7:10am
Quoting jeffokes
Thank you very much Pipz4me. Wrt D, what if you combine the lowest white bar and that pin bar and look at them as two hr tf bar, kinda super - imposing hr2 on hr1?

I am still studying the pattern and it really seems cool, i mean the rate of it's success. Sorry to bother you more, also look at the following charts also and help clarify please. I want to be sure I am getting the stuff.
K - Not one. I see no interim swing UP for this to be breaking the lows of.

L - Not one. Again, no prior swing that this is breaching and failing at.

M - Yes but like anything there are SPF's and there are excellent SPF's . The pattern is discretionary but I do like to see the market make a low and then a significant looking swing up before coming back down. This would usually give you some "space". Is this swing up significant? Only you can answer that through your testing. I would say it is just about valid (but more so because of that unfilled gap)

N - Yes, technically an SFP.

O - No, not one. Where is the previous swing low that we are breaking? Remember, to be a swing LOW the market must have rallied up otherwise its not a swing point its just a last low.
Attached Image
  • #1,335
  • Aug 12, 2011 7:45am Aug 12, 2011 7:45am
Thanks for your input Tom. Cleared some things!!

Today I was watching 2 SPF

http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/4108/eu1b.png

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/4735/au1g.png

First was very close to the FTA. Second is still going. News made it spike a little but didnt take out the high.
  • #1,336
  • Aug 12, 2011 10:05am Aug 12, 2011 10:05am
Hi Guys

SFP Gold H1 just formed.

Cheers
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  • #1,337
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:51am Aug 13, 2011 12:51am
Quoting the_wizard
K - Not one. I see no interim swing UP for this to be breaking the lows of.

L - Not one. Again, no prior swing that this is breaching and failing at.

M - Yes but like anything there are SPF's and there are excellent SPF's . The pattern is discretionary but I do like to see the market make a low and then a significant looking swing up before coming back down. This would usually give you some "space". Is this swing up significant? Only you can answer that through your testing. I would say it is just about valid (but more so because of that unfilled...
Tom thank you so much!!!

Cprao and Pipz4me thank you also!!!

I live the willingness to help here.

My understanding of sfp is finally driven home.Thank you all!!!!
  • #1,338
  • Aug 13, 2011 1:09am Aug 13, 2011 1:09am
Tom, this pattern below you talked about in the webinar that it has about 77% (82% can't quite recall) success rate. I didn't get it and still don't understand it. I know you have put in lots for me this week already, but I will really appreciate it if you can kindly shed some light on it for me and probably others who might as well be interested. Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,339
  • Aug 13, 2011 3:36am Aug 13, 2011 3:36am
jeff search for the following pattern and apply of the chart ? anything stands out ?

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_4g1neGDD_Q..._engulfing.jpg
  • #1,340
  • Edited 3:44am Aug 14, 2011 3:26am | Edited 3:44am
Quoting trader8080
jeff search for the following pattern and apply of the chart ? anything stands out ?

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_4g1neGDD_Q..._engulfing.jpg
These are the well-known Bearish Outside Bars and Bearish Engulfing Bars...if these are what he was talking about then it's just that I didn't hear him well. I know these well. Thanks a lot !!!
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