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Fail Better

  • #521
  • May 31, 2011 2:54pm May 31, 2011 2:54pm
I hope Intel has not left without us!!
  • #522
  • May 31, 2011 4:27pm May 31, 2011 4:27pm
Quoting plund
I did some backtesting on gaps on usdcad from 30th of november 2009.

Win rates are:

0.5 r = 84,37 %
1 r = 65,6 %
2 r = 53.1 %

with an account on 10 000 and risking 2 % of your account on every trade your account would have grown as follows.

Attachment

pat
Pat,

Thank you for this. The results are strikingly similar to my own in the EUR/USD.

For some reason the attached image is not working though?
  • #523
  • May 31, 2011 4:27pm May 31, 2011 4:27pm
Quoting macbow
I hope Intel has not left without us!!
Hi Macbow,

It came very close to filling me but has unfortunately already hit the area I would have had as my target!

Tom
  • #524
  • May 31, 2011 5:55pm May 31, 2011 5:55pm
Hey Tom,

This looks like the pattern you discussed....interesting that PB got stopped at a ppz ...Let's see if we get an up day. Already, 90 mins. from 5pm est we get a move up.
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  • #525
  • May 31, 2011 6:54pm May 31, 2011 6:54pm
Originally Posted by Malarky
"Evening Guys

Just getting up to date with this great thread after the webinar on Monday - really good Tom, loved the spider analogy (thought you'd lost the plot for a mo when i first heard it lol) - many thanks for doing these sessions and sharing with us.

Can I just ask guys how you monitor these set ups - ie do you have your charts set on daily and when price is approaching an area of interest do you then switch to monitoring hourly and adding your hourly s/r levels ?

I ask because I am struggling a bit with switching time frames from daily..."

Quoting the_wizard
Excellent question and I've got loads to say on this so that is going to be the key topic of the next webinar.

See you Sunday!

And keep watching for those spiders ;-)
Hey Tom I wasn't aware of the webinars at that point in time so I missed it, if you could cover this for just a minute or two in ur next webinar that would be great. Thx.
  • #526
  • Jun 1, 2011 12:56am Jun 1, 2011 12:56am
Quoting the_wizard
Pat,

Thank you for this. The results are strikingly similar to my own in the EUR/USD.

For some reason the attached image is not working though?

Weird! It's all looking good to me. Better now?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad gap test chart.PNG Size: 18 KB


pat
  • #527
  • Jun 1, 2011 5:50am Jun 1, 2011 5:50am
so it looks like 2R is the best results over time, even although less % wins
  • #528
  • Jun 1, 2011 6:15am Jun 1, 2011 6:15am
Quoting advfntrader
so it looks like 2R is the best results over time, even although less % wins
Yes, if your mind is comfortable with losing every second trade. You might also notice that on 2r and 1r your account hasn't really grown, since that good start. I guess some backtesting with more data would be in place. I will do this at some point.

pat
  • #529
  • Jun 1, 2011 6:29am Jun 1, 2011 6:29am
Long @ 1.43225. waiting for the rounded retests. thoughts?

Harry
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  • #530
  • Jun 1, 2011 6:38am Jun 1, 2011 6:38am
Quoting Atc
Hey Tom,

This looks like the pattern you discussed....interesting that PB got stopped at a ppz ...Let's see if we get an up day. Already, 90 mins. from 5pm est we get a move up.
Hi ATC,

I was going to post the same chart this morning. It is a great example and the market is behaving exactly as expected with the sell off in Cable this morning :-)
  • #531
  • Jun 1, 2011 8:44am Jun 1, 2011 8:44am
Wizard do you buy the stock or the options in your equity trades?
  • #532
  • Jun 1, 2011 8:49am Jun 1, 2011 8:49am
Short EURJPY here.
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  • #533
  • Jun 1, 2011 9:27am Jun 1, 2011 9:27am
Quoting macbow
Short EURJPY here.
What's this all about?
  • #534
  • Jun 1, 2011 9:39am Jun 1, 2011 9:39am
Sorry I should have marked my chart more. I shorted on the retrace to the little consolidation on the left. Entered on 15 min chart but had missed the top by a bit. Price moved down 30 pips and bounced off support. I was acting dumb and hoping for a bigger move and ended up getting out with 3 pips! Stupid me !
  • #535
  • Jun 1, 2011 9:39am Jun 1, 2011 9:39am
Planning short at orange line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #536
  • Jun 1, 2011 10:04am Jun 1, 2011 10:04am
touch trade short entry at .9745
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  • #537
  • Jun 1, 2011 10:09am Jun 1, 2011 10:09am
EURGBP has been moving quite nicely lately. Maybe should watch this pair a bit more.

@ATC I entered CAD at 9733 and added another position at 9746.
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  • #538
  • Jun 1, 2011 10:20am Jun 1, 2011 10:20am
Awesome thread Tom, i am finally catching up as ive finished the T2W thread now and just making my way through this one. I just wondered as i messaged you on Skype but wasn't sure weather you got it or not, i want to get in on the webinar's on Sunday so can you send me the details please. I'm not sure looking at previous posts weather i can PM due to my low user count so not sure how i can get my e-mail to you unless you have it from the previous time we spoke
  • #539
  • Jun 1, 2011 10:33am Jun 1, 2011 10:33am
Quoting macbow
Planning short at orange line.
Nice sell of on looney, just about the price of previous range break
  • #540
  • Jun 1, 2011 11:34am Jun 1, 2011 11:34am
Quoting Atc
touch trade short entry at .9745
This was beautiful coinciding as it did with the S&P retesting the back of the TL it broke out of.
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