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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #25,761
  • Aug 10, 2011 12:44pm Aug 10, 2011 12:44pm
Pocketed part of my postions for 20 pips. Now the rest can ride up or at least close at break even.
  • #25,762
  • Aug 10, 2011 12:47pm Aug 10, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting eqshack
up we go

triple bottom ..it might be trend reversal but then again...i might be wrong
Whoaaa! Not so fast! lol

The first line of resistance is the horizontal purple line around 76.90.
A move down after the one we have seen this week will naturally have a retracement.
There are absolutely no signs of a bottom here.

USD/JPY H4
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  • #25,763
  • Aug 10, 2011 12:53pm Aug 10, 2011 12:53pm
Quoting PipMaxzz
BOJ seems to be successful in creating the intervention fear...atleast with us small time traders so more and more ppl will turn bullish eventually?
When and IF BOJ intervenes again, it will be all over the map, we will all see a huge wide range bar (on the hourly charts for example) and if there is some follow-through then we can start thinking about buying USD/JPY, it is that simple, there is absolutely no need to anticipate anything.

I bet traders who positioned themselves ahead of "another" BOJ intervention are now hundreds of pips in the red.

Like I always say, trade what you see right now on the chart, and only what you see.
  • #25,764
  • Aug 10, 2011 1:03pm Aug 10, 2011 1:03pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
When and IF BOJ intervenes again, it will be all over the map, we will all see a huge wide range bar (on the hourly charts for example) and if there is some follow-through then we can start thinking about buying USD/JPY, it is that simple, there is absolutely no need to anticipate anything.

I bet traders who positioned themselves ahead of "another" BOJ intervention are now hundreds of pips in the red.

Like I always say, trade what you see right now on the chart, and only what you see.
But I think you're missing the fundamental picture, if the BoJ wants to have any last chance at having any firepower left for intervention, they're going to defend 76.24, if they let that break though they will have lost all power because we'll go down to 75 and 72, then all interventions will have to struggle to get past 76.24. I'm purely speculating but I really think the BoJ is sitting there with the finger on the trigger waiting to push the button at 76.24 or at least stop any break of it.
  • #25,765
  • Aug 10, 2011 1:05pm Aug 10, 2011 1:05pm
In case anyone is interested, here is the cot report of JPY. Blue is non-commercial.

Considering the economic turmoil all over the world, I would not interpret it to be the end of the fall, but a breather is due anytime now, even if it's just the BOJ-Intervention. For that reason, my 2 to 3 weeks bias is long...but I'll wait and react once something happens.
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  • #25,766
  • Aug 10, 2011 1:25pm Aug 10, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting Joey Zazza
But I think you're missing the fundamental picture, if the BoJ wants to have any last chance at having any firepower left for intervention, they're going to defend 76.24, if they let that break though they will have lost all power because we'll go down to 75 and 72, then all interventions will have to struggle to get past 76.24. I'm purely speculating but I really think the BoJ is sitting there with the finger on the trigger waiting to push the button at 76.24 or at least stop any break of it.
Am thinking the same.
  • #25,767
  • Aug 10, 2011 1:28pm Aug 10, 2011 1:28pm
Quoting hfcgII
Am thinking the same.
Yeah, I feel that they've already made this mistake with the 80 price point, they should have defended the 80 price point with an unlimited amount of orders.

I mean, technically, doesn't a central bank have infinite power to devalue their currency by printing printing, and printing?
  • #25,768
  • Aug 10, 2011 1:37pm Aug 10, 2011 1:37pm
Yen futures bouncing off support.
A break of this support could take us to the horizontal purple line at around 12.97.
No sign of a top to Yen strength yet.

Yen Futures H1
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  • #25,769
  • Aug 10, 2011 1:38pm Aug 10, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting Joey Zazza
Yeah, I feel that they've already made this mistake with the 80 price point, they should have defended the 80 price point with an unlimited amount of orders.

I mean, technically, doesn't a central bank have infinite power to devalue their currency by printing printing, and printing?
True, but the long term effect of printing money would not be so desirable.

On the intervention: for all we know, its not only the Japanese waiting to pull the trigger. It will have to be a collaboration of a couple of countries....G20 and its commitment is all I say...just speculating.
  • #25,770
  • Aug 10, 2011 1:39pm Aug 10, 2011 1:39pm
Quoting Joey Zazza
they should have defended the 80 price point with an unlimited amount of orders.
If this was an option for the BOJ, don't you think they would have done so?
  • #25,771
  • Aug 10, 2011 2:14pm Aug 10, 2011 2:14pm
Quoting Joey Zazza
I'm purely speculating but I really think the BoJ is sitting there with the finger on the trigger waiting to push the button at 76.24 or at least stop any break of it.
...Or they could be having sake and whiskey with a few Geisha in Tokyo Red-Light district right now, and not even thinking about some hypothetical intervention
  • #25,772
  • Aug 10, 2011 3:35pm Aug 10, 2011 3:35pm
Still looking more like another 50p short invitation but i'll refuse it this time.. have pending buy orders at 76.30 and 75.87 just because i think they will at least try to defend the level more possibly than not, at least for the sake of inner politics. Exporters screaming because they didn't hedge themselves against currency risks. If they learn to deal with strong Yen vs dollar (and FED makes everything to keep it so for quite a while, so they will have to), this pair could drop further mid to long term.

UBS revised their UJ outlook today: 85 within a month, 90 within 3 months

If anybody thinks we are 'insanely low' now, with respect to revert to mean aka what came down must go up: regarding to longterm trend, we are currently at mean value --see daily chart with linear regression since 2007-06-22 high. USDJPY at 90 would be an upside extreme.

Good luck to anybody trading this thing ..and keep your sizes small and stops loose enough.
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  • #25,773
  • Aug 10, 2011 3:48pm Aug 10, 2011 3:48pm
Quoting MaryJane
UBS revised their UJ outlook today: 85 within a month, 90 within 3 months
Every single time I hear a big investment bank or fund saying where they think it's going to be within one month to three months, they are always wrong.

You read that, you buy. They know that, they sell, they win.
  • #25,774
  • Aug 10, 2011 3:49pm Aug 10, 2011 3:49pm
Quoting MaryJane
Still looking more like another 50p short invitation but i'll refuse it this time.. have pending buy orders at 76.30 and 75.87 just because i think they will at least try to defend the level more possibly than not, at least for the sake of inner politics. Exporters screaming because they didn't hedge themselves against currency risks. If they learn to deal with strong Yen vs dollar (and FED makes everything to keep it so for quite a while, so they will have to), this pair could drop further mid to long term.

UBS revised their UJ...
Thanks for the analysis. Agreeing that 90 would be an extreme high. If 76 blows surely thats an all time recent low and doesn't bode well given that Fed are keeping rates steady for another couple of years. At this rate Japan will be hurt more than USA it would seem...
  • #25,775
  • Aug 10, 2011 4:09pm Aug 10, 2011 4:09pm
I read a report somewhere that Japan was engaged in interventions of massive sizes in the first quarter of 2004, looking for the link again now.
  • #25,776
  • Aug 10, 2011 4:20pm Aug 10, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting Joey Zazza
I read a report somewhere that Japan was engaged in interventions of massive sizes in the first quarter of 2004, looking for the link again now.
This just in : Japan will intervene . We just learned that officials in Tokyo announced that they will definitely intervene and buy more... Raid insecticides if the mosquitoes keep bothering them
  • #25,777
  • Aug 10, 2011 4:56pm Aug 10, 2011 4:56pm
Quoting fosking
You read that, you buy. They know that, they sell, they win.
yep, that's their job i don't watch COT figures but i guess USDJPY is 'overbought' by retailers for quite a long time now.

Quoting Unknownpips
At this rate Japan will be hurt more than USA it would seem...
There are strong voices among Japanese economists and authorities suggesting various ways of coping with, or even taking an advantage of strong Yen. No fast food though, will take much time and efforts to implement and Japan's recovery is on stake.

Quoting Joey Zazza
I read a report somewhere that Japan was engaged in interventions of massive sizes in the first quarter of 2004, looking for the link again now.
Yes example here..
Quote
"Over 15 months from 2003 to 2004, the BOJ was very committed -- the central bank acted in all months except for one and intervention efforts routinely amounted to more than 1 trillion yen per day. Contrastingly, in the 1999 to 2000 period, its efforts were more often "one and done."
But that was a completely different situation. The actions were heavily supported by FED at those times. Yen strength was based on domestic factors, whereas today the reasons lie in its safe haven status. This aspect was completely missing before. Today, they will delay the unevitable drop with another intervention but nobody can stop the world moving cash from unreliable assets to CHF, JPY and gold.

This intervention hunting is a bit of gamble but intervention fading seems to be a highly reliable way of serious trading Already looking forward to sell the next one.
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  • #25,778
  • Aug 10, 2011 5:07pm Aug 10, 2011 5:07pm
Quoting MaryJane
Today, they will delay the unevitable drop with another intervention but nobody can stop the world moving cash from unreliable assets to CHF, JPY and gold.

This intervention hunting is a bit of gamble but intervention fading seems to be a highly reliable way of serious trading Already looking forward to sell the next one.
You reckon theres a call for intervention today? I would have thought so considering FOMC result plus the level where USD stands and that its a Wednesday. All the ingredients but will BOJ cook?

Agree on Japan needing steps. What can they do? Become a consuming nation and rely less on export? Looks bleak.
  • #25,779
  • Aug 10, 2011 5:11pm Aug 10, 2011 5:11pm
Quoting MaryJane
But that was a completely different situation. The actions were heavily supported by FED at those times. Yen strength was based on domestic factors, whereas today the reasons lie in its safe haven status. This aspect was completely missing before. Today, they will delay the unevitable drop with another intervention but nobody can stop the world moving cash from unreliable assets to CHF, JPY and gold.
But let me bring this to you, the Japanese are currently doing their own QE, not just with the Yen intervention but also with asset purchasing and increasing the money supply. The U.S. is not following through with QE3 for the time being. Massive amounts of capital have been put into CHF, JPY, and gold for a safe haven, why isn't USD also a safe haven?
  • #25,780
  • Aug 10, 2011 5:13pm Aug 10, 2011 5:13pm
I smell a rat... usually they don't analyse JPY pairs like this...
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