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Where is the EDGE in trading? The most important thing in trading!

  • #241
  • Aug 8, 2011 2:31am Aug 8, 2011 2:31am
Quoting Custos
interesting, why you think fx is not a zero sum game? Somebody has to lose so that somebody else can win. Actually it is even a negative sum game, cause brokers also take out their share of every transaction.
hence brokers 'always win' in that case... you can't magically lose or gain money from a transaction. adding a third party does not change the outcome of money in money out. nothing is negative-sum. only a PERSPECTIVE can be negative sum.... as in, the perspective of an individuals account has it engaged in a negative-sum game because it is never engaged on an even playing field and will always bear the brunt of transaction costs.

in the same light, working is NEGATIVE sum if you take into consideration the fact that the money you so called 'earn' then gets split between what you actually receive, the amount that goes into your super / 401k (and therefore again receives the market 'negative sum' treatment from it's perspective), and the amount that goes straight to the government through taxes.

in fact, in this way trading is doubly negative sum. first you lose in transaction costs, and then if you actually manage to earn any money you then get taxed on this by the government. you lose, then lose again. does this double negative make it a positive (clearly flawed thinking, but that's the point)?

seriously, why does this keep coming up? has it been 6 months already?
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #242
  • Aug 8, 2011 2:32am Aug 8, 2011 2:32am
Quoting AllanS
Suppose some pair is $20. Choose a grid size, say $1. Given a large sample, the probability the price will reach $21 before it reaches $19 is 50%. The chance it will reach $22 before $19 is 25%.



That's curve fitting.



No offense taken. It's your money.

Hey. Just made another $1000 demo. Up 35% this month, scalping 1M. Average time/trade maybe 20 seconds. Works a treat. Would I consider risking real money? You gotta be joking.
you started off quite well but the last few posts make no sense at all.

Did you actually read any of breakouts posts properly? It is as clear as the nose on my face he knows what he is talking about.
  • #243
  • Aug 8, 2011 2:33am Aug 8, 2011 2:33am
Quoting nubcake
hence brokers 'always win' in that case... you can't magically lose or gain money from a transaction. adding a third party does not change the outcome of money in money out.

seriously, why does this keep coming up? has it been 6 months already?
I don't understand your post. I just explained to him, why forex is a negative sum game, nothing more or less.

You really have a quite aggressive attitude, man. chill out.
  • #244
  • Aug 8, 2011 2:38am Aug 8, 2011 2:38am
Quoting Custos
Why should you not search for better methods? What is the problem with that?
Everywhere people are trying to achieve excellence and perfection (be it sports, production, services,...), why shouldn't we have the same standards in trading?
I can't argue that point. If you feel that trading is like sports then by all means you should "go for the gusto". It does seem though that I have read some recent testimony from sports figures gone wrong.

So I ask you; when does (at what point) achieving excellence conflict with the standards set forth by society? Can we achieve excellence by insider trading, somewhat like Martha Stewart, or can we just be satisfied with reading endless "latest, greatest system on a forum ever" and even though we were already making big bucks..... this sounds better so I better abandon it (my heretofore profitable method) because some dude says he makes boatloads of money.

So maybe, it's just human nature to be GULLIBLE !! (think Sarah Palin and how she made millions).
  • #245
  • Edited 2:58am Aug 8, 2011 2:39am | Edited 2:58am
Quoting AllanS
Suppose some pair is $20. Choose a grid size, say $1. Given a large sample, the probability the price will reach $21 before it reaches $19 is 50%. The chance it will reach $22 before $19 is 25%.
yeah, exactly.

except!!!!!

you can't say that within this time period price only ever went up or down a dollar. within that period were times where it had to move excessively more in sub-dollar amounts for it to reach it's final destination of up or down a dollar.

given a large sample size <- these are the key words that negate the argument of trends.

within a large sample size is where the meat lies due to the granularity of movements required within that sample for it to reach its destination. a coin flip is 50/50, but a series of 1000 coin flips does not have a 100%, or even 50%, chance of being a recurring head then tail pattern.

it's like taking a perfectly round and evenly weighted ball. it is perfection and has no exploitable properties.... except, within this ball may be areas of mass that are greater than adjacent areas, however, polar opposite to each region of the ball is an equally sized mass that creates this balance. the ball as a whole has no trend or edge or unbalance, but within the ball are different areas of differing properties that create a chaotic environment within the perfect sphere... and it is the polar opposite chaotic events that create the overall balance and perfection.

no, i'm not drunk or high.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #246
  • Aug 8, 2011 2:42am Aug 8, 2011 2:42am
Quoting Custos
I don't understand your post. I just explained to him, why forex is a negative sum game, nothing more or less.
if you truly can't understand what i said then so be it. it's all very clear and straightforward. to put it simply... your statement was very flawed, and i corrected it.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #247
  • Aug 8, 2011 2:42am Aug 8, 2011 2:42am
Quoting egadsforex
I can't argue that point. If you feel that trading is like sports then by all means you should "go for the gusto". It does seem though that I have read some recent testimony from sports figures gone wrong.

So I ask you; when does (at what point) achieving excellence conflict with the standards set forth by society? Can we achieve excellence by insider trading, somewhat like Martha Stewart, or can we just be satisfied with reading endless "latest, greatest system on a forum ever" and even though we were already making big bucks..... this sounds...
well, for me it has a different reason, I don't wanna abandon my methods in general. I wanna combine them, normally they should smooth out my equity curve. Obviously the methods shouldn't be related to each other, otherwise drawdowns will be bigger and not smaller.

well, and I couldn't care less about somebody boasting how many bucks he makes in a forum. As long as the system fails to be profitable in my backtests, I won't use it.
  • #248
  • Aug 8, 2011 2:45am Aug 8, 2011 2:45am
Quoting egadsforex
I can't argue that point. If you feel that trading is like sports then by all means you should "go for the gusto". It does seem though that I have read some recent testimony from sports figures gone wrong.

So I ask you; when does (at what point) achieving excellence conflict with the standards set forth by society? Can we achieve excellence by insider trading, somewhat like Martha Stewart, or can we just be satisfied with reading endless "latest, greatest system on a forum ever" and even though we were already making big bucks..... this sounds...
You seem to be missing the point.

I trade SR, it is obvious some levels are better than others my results are improving the more I try to work out the best of them.

I am sure other PA / TA traders will agree you cannot fail to keep improving with practice. I truly look forward to where I will be after another 5 years of studying the charts.
  • #249
  • Aug 8, 2011 2:45am Aug 8, 2011 2:45am
Quoting AllanS
Suppose some pair is $20. Choose a grid size, say $1. Given a large sample, the probability the price will reach $21 before it reaches $19 is 50%. The chance it will reach $22 before $19 is 25%.
Again you do not get it Allan, the question is NOT : "if the price of a stock/currency/commodity is $20 right now, what is its probability of reaching $19 before reaching $21?"

The REAL question is : If the price made a $1 move up/down (ALREADY), what is its probability of moving another $1 move in the same direction?

Please tell me that you finally understand what this thread is all about.
  • #250
  • Aug 8, 2011 2:46am Aug 8, 2011 2:46am
Quoting nubcake
if you truly can't understand what i said then so be it. it's all very clear and straightforward. to put it simply... your statement was very flawed, and i corrected it.
oh, didn't see that you added stuff, after I already answered to your post.

okay, then thanks for enlightening me, nubcake. Your logic is ground-breaking.
  • #251
  • Aug 8, 2011 2:53am Aug 8, 2011 2:53am
Quoting Custos
oh, didn't see that you added stuff, after I already answered to your post.

okay, then thanks for enlightening me, nubcake. Your logic is ground-breaking.
i have a habit of doing that lately, and i wish i would write it all in one go. but my thoughts often continue after i press submit.

i like sarcasm. it makes me feel warm inside
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #252
  • Aug 8, 2011 2:54am Aug 8, 2011 2:54am
Quoting nubcake

i like sarcasm. it makes me feel warm inside
me too
  • #253
  • Aug 8, 2011 3:01am Aug 8, 2011 3:01am
Quoting Mr Breakout
Again you do not get it Allan, the question is NOT : "if the price of a stock/currency/commodity is $20 right now, what is its probability of reaching $19 before reaching $21?"

The REAL question is : If the price made a $1 move up/down (ALREADY), what is its probability of moving another $1 move in the same direction?

Please tell me that you finally understand what this thread is all about.
The price is $20 because it was either $19 or $21 immediately before. ie. It makes no difference where the price has come from.
  • #254
  • Aug 8, 2011 3:06am Aug 8, 2011 3:06am
Quoting jag1966
you started off quite well but the last few posts make no sense at all.

Did you actually read any of breakouts posts properly? It is as clear as the nose on my face he knows what he is talking about.
Thank you for your participation and your kind words Jag1966, you really are a true asset to this Forex forum.
  • #255
  • Aug 8, 2011 3:07am Aug 8, 2011 3:07am
Quoting AllanS
The price is $20 because it was either $19 or $21 immediately before. ie. It makes no difference where the price has come from.
Oh boy.

I give up.
  • #256
  • Aug 8, 2011 3:07am Aug 8, 2011 3:07am
Quoting jag1966
You seem to be missing the point.

I trade SR, it is obvious some levels are better than others my results are improving the more I try to work out the best of them.

I am sure other PA / TA traders will agree you cannot fail to keep improving with practice. I truly look forward to where I will be after another 5 years of studying the charts.
I don't think that I'm missing the point but I probably don't articulate very well.

So please allow me to re-phrase; at what point is good good enough? In the pursuit of excellence, should we all push ourselves to the brink of being illegal (as many ballplayers, etc., etc. have done). At what point do we become satisfied with our performance?

You see, being satisfied doesn't mean we can't strive for more but we don't have to go to ridiculous measures to obtain our satisfaction. It's maybe like the difference between Warren Buffet and Charlie Sheen. Undoubtedly, we have the right to emulate either one.
  • #257
  • Aug 8, 2011 3:09am Aug 8, 2011 3:09am
Quoting AllanS
The price is $20 because it was either $19 or $21 immediately before. ie. It makes no difference where the price has come from.
this is only going to be a circular argument that either resolves itself into frustration or the key to trading profitably.

if you know which way to position yourself and the time to get in and out then you know how to exploit a trend, otherwise moment by moment it is all just random 50/50 untradeable noise.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #258
  • Aug 8, 2011 3:11am Aug 8, 2011 3:11am
Quoting egadsforex
I don't think that I'm missing the point but I probably don't articulate very well.

So please allow me to re-phrase; at what point is good good enough? In the pursuit of excellence, should we all push ourselves to the brink of being illegal (as many ballplayers, etc., etc. have done). At what point do we become satisfied with our performance?

You see, being satisfied doesn't mean we can't strive for more but we don't have to go to ridiculous measures to obtain our satisfaction. It's maybe like the difference between Warren Buffet and Charlie...
Point taken.
  • #259
  • Aug 8, 2011 3:11am Aug 8, 2011 3:11am
Quoting AllanS
The price is $20 because it was either $19 or $21 immediately before. ie. It makes no difference where the price has come from.
it makes a difference.
  • #260
  • Aug 8, 2011 3:13am Aug 8, 2011 3:13am
Quoting nubcake
this is only going to be a circular argument that either resolves itself into frustration or the key to trading profitably.

if you know which way to position yourself and the time to get in and out then you know how to exploit a trend, otherwise moment by moment it is all just random 50/50 untradeable noise.
No it isn't, trends work on M1 and no doubt they probably work on the micro second charts too.
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