Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY Discussion

#25,621
Aug 7, 2011 6:11pm Aug 7, 2011 6:11pm

Mr Breakout
Joined May 2011 | Status: Making money 1 pip at a time. | 2,150 Posts

I noticed that on Sundays, after the first few hourly bars, there is a tendency for the price to fill any "gap" that might have occurred.

Once the price fills that gap THEN the trend resumes.

#25,622
Aug 7, 2011 6:29pm Aug 7, 2011 6:29pm

werido
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: This soldier attacks with C# | 300 Posts

USDCHF is on its way down and JPY is considered the second safest haven currency just below CHF, so there should be a correlation in trend. That being said, it's quite risky to short either now since the governments of each have a long bias on these pairs and are very open about intimidating further strength in their currencies. The question is to what lengths will they go to this end in terms of intervention.

#25,623
Aug 7, 2011 6:45pm Aug 7, 2011 6:45pm

Mr Breakout
Joined May 2011 | Status: Making money 1 pip at a time. | 2,150 Posts

Quoting werido

Disliked

USDCHF is on its way down and JPY is considered the second safest haven currency just below CHF, so there should be a correlation in trend. That being said, it's quite risky to short either now since the governments of each have a long bias on these pairs and are very open about intimidating further strength in their currencies. The question is to what lengths will they go to this end in terms of intervention.

Ignored

Werido, you should not concern yourself too much with these questions. A trader should only trade what he sees on the chart, right here right now, and never base his trading on rumors or expectations, even though he should be prepared for any possible scenario.

Personally I always assume that any trade I place is a losing trade.

#25,624
Aug 7, 2011 6:51pm Aug 7, 2011 6:51pm

werido
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: This soldier attacks with C# | 300 Posts

The thing here is that fundamentals are mixed, so technicals are what I'm focusing on. I think by tomorrow we should see how big an impact the downgrade is having and the repercussions and counteractions of the major players.

#25,625
Aug 7, 2011 8:35pm Aug 7, 2011 8:35pm

jackm1
| Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 107 Posts

Personally I always assume that any trade I place is a losing trade.

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Then why trade.....?

either trading is a hobby, a side business or a full-time business. So if one always assumes its a losing gig then why bother.

Follow the price action and be optimistic long or short, of your assessment of the trade. ALWAYS let your stops take you out - the only way to win big with trend trading that I know.

#25,626
Aug 7, 2011 8:37pm Aug 7, 2011 8:37pm

hayseed
Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,416 Posts

Quoting Mr Breakout

Disliked

Personally I always assume that any trade I place is a losing trade.

Ignored

//---

strange...... i usually assume the exact opposite.....

is there some reason to always assume a trade will lose upfront...... or was just a figure of speech......h

to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h

#25,627
Aug 7, 2011 8:38pm Aug 7, 2011 8:38pm

Demon Bane
| Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 110 Posts

I'm staying out until a clear trend forms....

#25,628
Aug 7, 2011 8:41pm Aug 7, 2011 8:41pm

Mr Breakout
Joined May 2011 | Status: Making money 1 pip at a time. | 2,150 Posts

Quoting jackm1

Disliked

Personally I always assume that any trade I place is a losing trade.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Then why trade.....?

either trading is a hobby, a side business or a full-time business. So if always assumes its a losing gig then why bother.

Follow the price action and be optimistic long or short, of your assessment of the trade. ALWAYS let your stops take you out - the only to win big with trend trading that I know.

Ignored

It is just a figure of speech, when I say I always assume that any trade I place is a losing trade it simply means that I am always ready for any possible adverse move and that my stop is already in place, before I even consider taking the trade in the first place.

In fact, a trader should really enjoy taking small losses, otherwise he has no business trading, period.

#25,629
Aug 7, 2011 8:44pm Aug 7, 2011 8:44pm

Mr Breakout
Joined May 2011 | Status: Making money 1 pip at a time. | 2,150 Posts

Quoting Demon Bane

Disliked

I'm staying out until a clear trend forms....

Ignored

Yen is down and is strongly attracted by the 77.15 level. Wait and see...

#25,630
Aug 7, 2011 8:45pm Aug 7, 2011 8:45pm

mfoste1
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,390 Posts

markets will call boj and snb out this week....uj will test 75

#25,631
Aug 7, 2011 11:35pm Aug 7, 2011 11:35pm

ultra_knight
| Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Trader | 536 Posts

Quoting mfoste1

Disliked

markets will call boj and snb out this week....uj will test 75

Ignored

I think yes.

Japan, China and India etc Asian guys may allow their currencies to appreciate, for sake of global growth.

FED meeting tomorrow. QE3 most likely.

#25,632
Aug 8, 2011 12:13am Aug 8, 2011 12:13am

Mr Breakout
Joined May 2011 | Status: Making money 1 pip at a time. | 2,150 Posts

2:10 PM in Tokyo and still no (alleged) Bank Of Japan intervention, the short traders (me included) are still in control...

#25,633
Aug 8, 2011 12:17am Aug 8, 2011 12:17am

Betting
| Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 38 Posts

Quoting Mr Breakout

Disliked

2:10 PM in Tokyo and still no (alleged) Bank Of Japan intervention, the short traders (me included) are still in control...

Ignored

I think that after Friday's events BOJ will be waiting to see the after-effects. So, if they intervene again it will be Tuesday at the earliest. Not that I'm guaranteeing that they will do so of course.

#25,634
Aug 8, 2011 12:37am Aug 8, 2011 12:37am

werido
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: This soldier attacks with C# | 300 Posts

I covered the short.

#25,635
Aug 8, 2011 1:17am Aug 8, 2011 1:17am

PipMaxzz
| Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 700 Posts

I dont expect any interventions today. CHF and JPY will wait for the world market reactions. Market opened so bad in Asia, I am wondering how UJ still stayed within 40 pips drop or is it just waiting to be swept by the Tsunami when US market opens? Gold is at all time high, so does CHF....just matter of time UJ to drop. Any one with me?

#25,636
Aug 8, 2011 1:20am Aug 8, 2011 1:20am

2+2=4ex
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 6,418 Posts

Quoting PipMaxzz

Disliked

I dont expect any interventions today. CHF and JPY will wait for the world market reactions. Market opened so bad in Asia, I am wondering how UJ still stayed within 40 pips drop or is it just waiting to be swept by the Tsunami when US market opens? Gold is at all time high, so does CHF....just matter of time UJ to drop. Any one with me?

Ignored

Yea short on this.