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Where is the EDGE in trading? The most important thing in trading!

  • #201
  • Aug 7, 2011 7:59pm Aug 7, 2011 7:59pm
Quoting Price
OK, once more for good measure:

"I watch for momentum setups, at preferable times of day, happening together on multiple markets, that have many obvious reasons to cause traders around the world to also take that setup.

[color=red]When a setup is good, many traders around the world will be looking at the same breakout/momentum/price action.... and many will be taking the same trade for substantially the same reason. Think about it, a substantially significant amount of professional traders all piling trades in the...
Ok, 2 things to add here

1) what works in your system is statistical in nature (certain periods of the day)

2) system sounds ok but works very well only in theroy. In reality small specualtors are not the driving force behind forex. The main players are banks and hedge funds and they are exploiting this kind of setups that traders are trading with fake breakouts and other stop loss fishing techniques. They are manipulating the market and always going aginst that crowd of people that is seeing some pattern. The pattern that was supposed to work but somehow failed.

You know what casino owners say to people who have a "system" for casino?
They say "Welcome".

I think its a good analogy with TA tools and fx market. Just my opinion offcourse.


Quote
I wish the best of luck with your studies my friend.
I wish u good luck as well.
  • #202
  • Aug 7, 2011 8:04pm Aug 7, 2011 8:04pm
Quoting nubcake
i'd like to add, as crucialpoint mentioned recently any system has a divergent and convergent nature to it... the problem is that most people don't put the time and effort in to check for the the convergent point where their profits disappear. they either get all excited, or they simply don't do the research, and they jump in and start trading their system expecting to quit their day jobs or they start boasting and broadcasting it on forums looking for sheeple and praise.
See, I told you didn't have to smoke weed while talking to Hawking to get it... But why would anyone take you seriously, you're just another nutcase!!!
  • #203
  • Aug 7, 2011 8:09pm Aug 7, 2011 8:09pm
Quoting reres
Even baby could understand why TA patterns cannot predict anything so they are completly random especially on short time frames. End of story until prooven otherwise.
Well you are almost the only here claiming that TA does not work, so where is YOUR proof? Show us that it does not work, Herr Professor.

Quoting reres
I wonder why? I guess they dont have anything to show.
So if nobody wants to show you the location of his gold mine in, say Alaska or California, then, according to Reres's logic, gold mines simply do not exist, period.

But of course, why didn't I think of that?
  • #204
  • Aug 7, 2011 8:29pm Aug 7, 2011 8:29pm
Quoting egadsforex
The EDGE is KNOWLEDGE. This is true in any field that you may want to "challenge".
Yes, but knowledge comes after years and years and years of studying those charts, day after day, week after week, month after month. Reading tons of trading books also helps, otherwise it could take you 50 years just to figure out simple concepts like support and resistance or Fibonacci levels all by yourself.

Quoting egadsforex
Do you think that George Soros had all his indicators plugged in on his billion dollar day. Did Bill Gates, Warren Buffet or Carlos Slim follow a chart to become super-rich? Not that they were heavily involved in FOREX but the principle is the same.
Keep in mind that Soros also lost billions betting against the Euro and other currency pairs. But of course the media does not like to report these losses, it is not very "sexy".
  • #205
  • Aug 7, 2011 8:42pm Aug 7, 2011 8:42pm
Quoting reres
Lets say that we solve all the problems with traders psyhology and money managment. Lets say money managment is perfect and the trader is trading like a robot. Knowing that trading is just a probability game and not having problems accepting losses.

Than to make a profit he still needs to have an edge. Just like casino has an edge and it doesnt care if someone wins a jackpot once in a while.

So where excatly is an edge in trading??
xxx

Share your ideas
Power law distributions & time correlations mean that not all increments are
independent, identically distributed.

So, some of the time, there have to be trends (tradable) or punctuated gaps (not tradable).

Also currencies are not an isolated betting universe (compared to e.g. a poker tournament). They move because other underlyings---bonds and stocks---are moving.
  • #206
  • Aug 7, 2011 8:49pm Aug 7, 2011 8:49pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Yes, but knowledge comes after years and years and years of studying those charts, day after day, week after week, month after month. Reading tons of trading books also helps, otherwise it could take you 50 years just to figure out simple concepts like support and resistance or Fibonacci levels all by yourself.



Keep in mind that Soros also lost billions betting against the Euro and other currency pairs. But of course the media does not like to report these losses, it is not very "sexy".
Of course, knowledge is not gained overnight. I suggest that reading tons of trading books is not the answer and need not take 50 years. A college degree does not take that long and indeed, trading forex does not require a college degree.

Yes, Soros won and lost but left the game with $25 BILLION in assets. That doesn't seem too shabby to me.
  • #207
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:19pm Aug 7, 2011 9:19pm
Quoting egadsforex
trading forex does not require a college degree.
No you are right, trading Forex does not require a college degree, it only requires a lifetime of studying.

A true trader is always looking for the ultimate trading system that will give him the ultimate edge. This is why he needs to read every single book on that subject.

At least this is what I am doing, and I will keep searching for a better system until I die, this is what real trading is all about.
  • #208
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:20pm Aug 7, 2011 9:20pm
Quoting reres
1) what works in your system is statistical in nature (certain periods of the day)

2) system sounds ok but works very well only in theroy. In reality small specualtors are not the driving force behind forex. The main players are banks and hedge funds and they are exploiting this kind of setups that traders are trading with fake breakouts and other stop loss fishing techniques. They are manipulating the market and always going aginst that crowd of people that is seeing some pattern. The pattern that was supposed to work but somehow failed.
OK, just to clarify...

On #1: I pay attention to certain periods of the day. (i.e.) market open times, and a few others I've found interesting. However, I don't just "go long at 7am" or anything like that. All trades are whatever the charts are saying to offer a proper setup according to my analysis.

On #2: It doesn't just work in theory. It actually works.

And, although, yes there can be fakeouts... nothing is 100% certain. But the Edge is derived by taking valid setups that offer a good winrate and good R:R over time.

As far as big players manipulating, going against these setups.... sure, they try. They try as much as they can. But the market still moves. It moves far enough to make this kind of trading quite possible. It's already done so today.

When I was into this game only 4 years, I didn't have a frigging clue. Now I do. But you're still calling it mumbo-jumbo. In america we say, "It all sounds Greek to me". That means we don't understand it. I still think that's the case here.

The "proof" you're looking for here..... It's complicated. And you're probably not going to be satisfied no matter what anyone else says. But, yes it can work.... and yes, it can most definitely provide an edge.

Trade Well.
  • #209
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:29pm Aug 7, 2011 9:29pm
Quoting Price
OK, just to clarify...

On #1: I pay attention to certain periods of the day. (i.e.) market open times, and a few others I've found interesting. However, I don't just "go long at 7am" or anything like that. All trades are whatever the charts are saying to offer a proper setup according to my analysis.

On #2: It doesn't just work in theory. It actually works.

And, although, yes there can be fakeouts... nothing is 100% certain. But the Edge is derived by taking valid setups that offer a good winrate and good R:R over time.

As far as...
Price, our friend Reres does not want to make money trading, he just wants to understand why this and that works or does not work.

You can show him the location of a gold mine and tell him to just dig there and he will become rich and he will say : "But WHY is this gold here in this location and not there, I want to know WHY, please tell me WHY!"
  • #210
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:32pm Aug 7, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
No you are right, trading Forex it does not require a college degree, it only requires a lifetime of studying.

A true trader is always looking for the ultimate trading system that will give him the ultimate edge. This is why he needs to read every single book on that subject.

At least this is what I am doing, and I will keep searching for a better system until I die, this is what real trading is all about.
All apologies but I must disagree. If you spend your entire lifetime looking for the answer... where is the gain (profit). You may keep searching and hoping for a profit until the day you die, but NO that's not what trading is about. You will have lived the journey and died a poor man. That in itself is not the worst thing but if you hope for more then you have not lived up to your own expectations...... and that will be the sad part of your life.

comprende'?
  • #211
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:40pm Aug 7, 2011 9:40pm
Quoting egadsforex
All apologies but I must disagree. If you spend your entire lifetime looking for the answer... where is the gain (profit). You may keep searching and hoping for a profit until the day you die, but NO that's not what trading is about. You will have lived the journey and died a poor man. That in itself is not the worst thing but if you hope for more then you have not lived up to your own expectations...... and that will be the sad part of your life.

comprende'?
You did not understand my post, I ALREADY have a profitable trading system, I just want an even better trading system. This is why true, passionate and motivated traders are always looking for a better system.

Only mediocre traders are always happy with their current Forex (or Futures) income, no matter how "decent" it is.

Capiche?
  • #212
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:59pm Aug 7, 2011 9:59pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
You did not understand my post, I ALREADY have a profitable trading system, I just want an even better trading system. This is why true, passionate and motivated traders are always looking for a better system.

Only mediocre traders are always happy with their current Forex (or Futures) income, no matter how "decent" it is.

Capiche?
Perhaps I did misunderstand. However, if I have a method that is earning me 20% per month, why should I (or you) not be happy? Isn't it greed that suffocates the trader/investor?

How have you overcome this factor in your trading glory?

I will just say "HUH?" because I'm really not that fluent in foreign languages.
  • #213
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:20pm Aug 7, 2011 10:20pm
Quoting reres
Even baby could understand why TA patterns cannot predict anything so they are completly random especially on short time frames. End of story until prooven otherwise.

Yes showing account is not a problem at all as it doesnt reveal the mumbo jumbo system. It would shut up anyone who claims TA doesn work. But somehow noone ever shows the account statement. I wonder why? I guess they dont have anything to show.
Reres, there is no need to be insulting toward others. I feel like several experienced traders are trying to help you see things in a different light. You keep saying you want everyone to share their account statement, but why should they? If you were a successful trader what incentive would you have to share your account statement? In my case I just enjoy talking about what I do with others who understand it so I'm here to discuss trading; I don't have anything to prove, but I don't want other traders to give up because of your self-limiting mindset. What you think about what I do doesn't really concern me, because I'm making money with it and doing the things I want with my life.

You keep saying TA,PA, etc. reflect only past/current data and can't predict the future. I agree that they can't predict the future, because that would mean they would always tell what will happen no matter what. But there are ways to trade based on past data that have a statistically significant profitability over the long term. The markets aren't random, because they are fixed to the strength of different countries economies. What this means is, sometimes an economy trends up or down. If one currency is in a significant trend it is more likely to continue than just switch at any given point. Sure it will at some point, and most systems will take a loss at that point. Anyway this is just one example, but I hope it helps you understand a specific reason forex markets aren't random.

I'm not going to share what I do, or even talk about the idea, because it is the idea that is valuable. No one will share their idea with you if it is profitable. That's why it is hard to find profitable systems on forexfactory, etc. You need to understand when you find a great, profitable idea, sharing it with anyone is not to your own benefit! If other people figure out the way I trade and start doing the same thing, eventually my entry prices and exit prices will be affected.

I understand where you are coming from and I know it is frustrating to try idea after idea and have nothing work. I probably tried over 100 different strategies, backtesting them over 10 years of data, before I found my first profitable, systematic way of trading. I have a couple that I use now. Also I've gotten better and better at discretionary trading, so I know that can be profitable too (even though I'm not personally comfortable enough with it to trade my large account that way). Anyway, if you want to give up trading or focus on other things, that's okay. If you don't think it works, it definitely won't for you. But please don't discourage others when several other people are telling you over and over again it works for them. Good luck in your trading.

Cory
  • #214
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:39pm Aug 7, 2011 10:39pm
Quoting reres
Even baby could understand
If this is the case, then the logic would state that anyone beyond the age of 3 can be a successful trader.

In prior posts you talk about logic. Have you given up on logic and you are merely searching for any answer as to why you trading is not satisfactory??
  • #215
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:42pm Aug 7, 2011 10:42pm
Quoting egadsforex
However, if I have a method that is earning me 20% per month, why should I (or you) not be happy?
"Just" 20% a month you said? That means you can multiply your capital almost 9 times over every year. Hold on, I have Soros and Warren Buffet on the line, they are dying to do business with you.

Quoting egadsforex
Isn't it greed that suffocates the trader/investor?
"It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another. " Gordon Gekko.

Inserted Video
  • #216
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:49pm Aug 7, 2011 10:49pm
Quoting Cbh123
Reres, there is no need to be insulting toward others. I feel like several experienced traders are trying to help you see things in a different light. You keep saying you want everyone to share their account statement, but why should they? If you were a successful trader what incentive would you have to share your account statement? In my case I just enjoy talking about what I do with others who understand it so I'm here to discuss trading; I don't have anything to prove, but I don't want other traders to give up because of your self-limiting...
Good post Cory, keep up the good work.
  • #217
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:59pm Aug 7, 2011 10:59pm
[quote=Mr Breakout;4847975]



"It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another. " Gordon Gekko.
/quote]

If you would take the time to actually study then you would know that FX is not a zero sum game.

You see, this is exactly what I said; educate yourself in every way possible. Mr. Breakout; it seems obvious that you remain rather unintelligent despite the fact that you proclaim to be a successful trader who is seeking the lifelong truth.

Why don't you ask those like Steven Fossett (who died way too young) and other successful traders if they intended to live their life SEEKING the truth or if they intended to LIVE THE LIFE !!!

If you're not living the life then you have lost the truth.
  • #218
  • Aug 7, 2011 11:21pm Aug 7, 2011 11:21pm
[quote=egadsforex;4848016]
Quoting Mr Breakout



"It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another. " Gordon Gekko.
/quote]

If you would take the time to actually study then you would know that FX is not a zero sum game.

You see, this is exactly what I said; educate yourself in every way possible. Mr. Breakout; it seems obvious that you remain rather unintelligent despite the fact that you proclaim to be a successful trader who...
You have made some useful posts but this one is a stonkingly stupid one.

For me trading isn't about greed it is about beating the markets and continued improvement.

Re-read Breakouts posts.
  • #219
  • Aug 7, 2011 11:23pm Aug 7, 2011 11:23pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
No you are right, trading Forex does not require a college degree, it only requires a lifetime of studying.
Agree, It's alot easier to get a degree than it is to earn your sole income from trading in my opinion
  • #220
  • Aug 7, 2011 11:49pm Aug 7, 2011 11:49pm
Quoting Nijee
Hello? Even the EDGE or BONO would recognise that the amount of random events impacting forex mkts is a positive function of time. You are getting fooled by the way candlesticks on higher TFs hide all that "noise". Time in mkt. The longer a trade goes for, the higher the probability that a random event will %$^# it up.
IMO time in the market depends on the timeframe you are trading. I trade SR levels therefore my targets are determined by the significant levels on my chosen timeframe.

Someone mentioned getting 40 pips on a m1 chart day in day out would be impossible. For me that would be difficult because I would only expect there to be gaps of maybe 10 or so pips before SR got hit.

If I am trading the m15 tf then depending on the volatility of the pair I would expect about 40 or so pips betweeen SR levels.
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