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  • #512,801
  • Aug 6, 2011 12:56am Aug 6, 2011 12:56am
Quoting kenfen69
Precisely! So look at California. How much bigger is it than your above list of country's economies? And they write IOUs for social security payments? AAA? Go through state by state and see how many of them are on the brink of bankruptcy. Go lower and look at municipalities...even worse. Some have already tried to file for bankruptcy but have been told they can't! AAA? Me arse.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44043459

What the data will show is that S&P’s review of the United State sovereign debt includes state and local debt. This is commonplace around the world because in many countries local debt is centralized through the national government. But government sources say this is not the case in the US because state and local municipalities have their own political and taxing authority to raise debt. No deal in Washington can change the amount of state and local debt issued or retired.
  • #512,802
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:08am Aug 6, 2011 1:08am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44043459

What the data will show is that...
And the next paragraph from the same article...

"S&P contends that it’s appropriate when judging the creditworthiness of a country to include all the government debt since its all paid by the same taxpayers. Still, it acknowledges that its methodology means an additional 1 percentage point of debt to GDP when compared to calculating just the Federal government alone."

1% point? Not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things. They're also basing their figures off a 10 year time period for the US...favorable! Most other countries get 3 to 5 years.
  • #512,803
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:11am Aug 6, 2011 1:11am
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/d...en_after_.html
  • #512,804
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:19am Aug 6, 2011 1:19am
... and we just happened to have good news released this morning on the dollar. Yeah right, just a way to partially brace for the sell off.

Roses have been growing in a big steaming pile for a bit too long now.
  • #512,805
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:26am Aug 6, 2011 1:26am
Quoting kenfen69
And the next paragraph from the same article...

"S&P contends that it’s appropriate when judging the creditworthiness of a country to include all the government debt since its all paid by the same taxpayers. Still, it acknowledges that its methodology means an additional 1 percentage point of debt to GDP when compared to calculating just the Federal government alone."

1% point? Not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things. They're also basing their figures off a 10 year time period for the US...favorable! Most other countries...
That's where I believe their methodology is flawed. I don't think state debts should be regarded in National debt. If they're going to start doing that, then they should start reconsidering all AAA ratings. They should reconsider based on the health of other entities/corporations within the same sector. I'm not going to split hairs here all night, nor am I going to say I'm right and you're wrong, but I think they made a poor assessment. I think the US Treasury is more than willing and able to pay their debts and obligations based on what we know - now and throughout the next ten years.
  • #512,806
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:28am Aug 6, 2011 1:28am
Quoting Good Fortune
Random question. Purple did you say you used to know some guys at Alaron back in the 90's?
Yes I did, why did you asked?? Trading commodities is much easier than FX.. heck trading anything back than was much easier than how it is now..

Edit: I was shocked at how quietly Alaron went down.. when Refco went bust it was a major global news back than..
  • #512,807
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:35am Aug 6, 2011 1:35am
Quoting 2 + 2 = 4 ex
That's where I believe..................I think the US Treasury is more than willing and able to pay their debts and obligations based on what we know...
That means you do not believe in Dec 21, 2012.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #512,808
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:37am Aug 6, 2011 1:37am
Quoting Venice
... and we just happened to have good news released this morning on the dollar. Yeah right, just a way to partially brace for the sell off.

Roses have been growing in a big steaming pile for a bit too long now.
Agreed!

I just want to say that I'm not "down" with the whole rating agency thing. I'm not comparing Ireland, Portugal or Greece, individually, or collectively, to the US. They're but a pimple on the arse of America, but...their debt is "junk" rated now...No A's...not even any B's, I think. C's and minuses. Completely unfair comparisons, but when you look at other AAA countries...

Canada...well, its house is in pretty good order. Say the UK. Was/is in bad shape. Did some quantitative easing, too, but... look at the austerity measures they have taken on. Fierce! They're getting their house in order, as painful as it may be. If they didn't, I'm sure they would have been up for a downgrade by now, too.

Is the US doing it at all? NO! Certainly not yet. The only reason they didn't default on August 2nd was because they raised the debt ceiling so they can continue to spend like loons! So in the whole ratings agency world, does it seem unfair that they lost a notch from one agency so far? I don't really think it is. Will it be a wake up call? Who fakking knows.

Its for Americans to sort out. If it didn't affect how I make a sizable part of my living, I wouldn't give a shite, but...its a pretty big deal. They've been AAA since 1941. Kick in the butt at least.

Wild days ahead...rest up folks!
  • #512,809
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:39am Aug 6, 2011 1:39am
Quoting Chicky
That means Dec 21, 2012 is nothing to you.
I'm optimistic.
  • #512,810
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:45am Aug 6, 2011 1:45am
Quoting Chicky
That means you do not believe in Dec 21, 2012.
too many 1, 2's there.... 0 is out numbered....
  • #512,811
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:46am Aug 6, 2011 1:46am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I'm optimistic.
http://www.ece.osu.edu/~klein/cartoo...ticWaiterB.jpg
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #512,812
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:47am Aug 6, 2011 1:47am
Quoting kenfen69
Agreed!

I just want to say that I'm not "down" with the whole rating agency thing. I'm not comparing Ireland, Portugal or Greece, individually, or collectively, to the US. They're but a pimple on the arse of America, but...their debt is "junk" rated now...No A's...not even any B's, I think. C's and minuses. Completely unfair comparisons, but when you look at other AAA countries...

Canada...well, its house is in pretty good order. Say the UK. Was/is in bad shape. Did some quantitative easing, too, but... look at the austerity measures they...
The market is the ultimate voice of opinion. Market's always right. So we shall see what it says in time - starting Monday. I'm curious to see how markets react to the Federal Reserves response.
  • #512,813
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:48am Aug 6, 2011 1:48am
Quoting Chicky
http://www.ece.osu.edu/~klein/cartoo...ticWaiterB.jpg
Good one.
  • #512,814
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:51am Aug 6, 2011 1:51am
Quoting Astroman
Defend your own damn country this time!

Go read my whole post again muppet
  • #512,815
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:55am Aug 6, 2011 1:55am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
That's where I believe their methodology is flawed. I don't think state debts should be regarded in National debt. If they're going to start doing that, then they should start reconsidering all AAA ratings. They should reconsider based on the health of other entities/corporations within the same sector...
...I think the US Treasury is more than willing and able to pay their debts and obligations based on what we know - now and throughout the next ten years.
Sure mate...I don't want to split hairs here all night either.

Again...they do every other country the same way they assessed the US...ALL government included. The US says...we don't want it done that way, well..? And again, they spell out that if they did just assess the Federal government it would be a 1% decrease in debt to GDP...not enough in their opinion.

Your bit in bold...as I said a few post ago...other countries are assessed on 3 to 5 year periods. If they didn't do it over 10 years for the US, it probably would have been a multi-notch downgrade. Anyway...

Its all a racket run by many rat-arsed bastards! I just want pips!

Good night all.

ps- Here are the S&P guidelines for what constitutes an AAA-rated credit. USA?
  • #512,816
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:55am Aug 6, 2011 1:55am
Quoting ingmarforex
Go read my whole post again muppet
http://failads.com/wp-content/upload...bears-fail.jpg
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #512,817
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:58am Aug 6, 2011 1:58am
Quoting Chicky
http://failads.com/wp-content/upload...bears-fail.jpg
Great place to give some money 2
  • #512,818
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:58am Aug 6, 2011 1:58am
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44043776

Treasury officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said on Wednesday that top bond dealers were questioning S&P's credibility, which took a heavy blow during the 2007-09 financial crisis when mortgage-related debt lost much of its value after originally being awarded high ratings. The reputations of two other big rating agencies, Fitch and Moody's, were also tarnished.

Ian Lyngen, a senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group in Connecticut, agreed S&P now had more than just a credibility problem.

"The fact that they have now downgraded the United States suggests to me that they are now going to be dealing with a relevance issue," he said. "Because the fact of the matter is that 10-year (Treasury note) yields are near 2.5 percent, and that in no way suggests a lack of sponsorship for U.S. debt."

Yields on U.S. 10-year notes <US10YT=RR>, a benchmark for borrowing rates throughout the economy, fell as far as 2.34 percent on Friday -- their lowest since October 2010 and very low by historical standards.
  • #512,819
  • Aug 6, 2011 2:00am Aug 6, 2011 2:00am
Confoederatio Helvetica
  • #512,820
  • Aug 6, 2011 2:04am Aug 6, 2011 2:04am
Quoting kenfen69
Sure mate...I don't want to split hairs here all night either.

Again...they do every other country the same way they assessed the US...ALL government included. The US says...we don't want it done that way, well..? And again, they spell out that if they did just assess the Federal government it would be a 1% decrease in debt to GDP...not enough in their opinion.

Your bit in bold...as I said a few post ago...other countries are assessed on 3 to 5 year periods. If they didn't do it over 10 years for the US, it probably would have been a multi-notch...
Yea, it's not so clear what will happen based on the Federal Reserve's reaction. I do think this is going to now render rating agencys influence in the market useless - which is probably a good thing. It already seems like no one trusts anyone anyway. This is just another step in the evolution of that.
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