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  • #511,741
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:22am Aug 5, 2011 6:22am
Quoting attila
i'm selling. butter?
As the old saying goes... "just don't trust the first price."
  • #511,742
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:22am Aug 5, 2011 6:22am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Everyone buy their popcorn?
Mmmm ok now I gotta get me some caramel popcorn.
I operate with clear definite rules, if I break them I lose BIG!
  • #511,743
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:25am Aug 5, 2011 6:25am
Quoting deeZG
now, while waiting for it...

so far we've been trying to predict what will it be after the NPF but regardless of the direction and the numbers - do you people have some strategy of trading NPF release? or just stay away until the storm is over?

This is risky business but the way I did it, however not especially profitable but good enough on average with Oanda:

I took a pretended loss of 400 pips over 4 months,,, cause you want to be able to play at least 4 jobless news before increasing the amount (or decreasing) and you want to make 120-150 pips from each jobless..

Trade 1__ 0-4 minutes
I had the 10 sec chart going with Heiken Ashi and waited for 2-3 candles swapping colors before entering with a 100 pip SL and 40-50 TP level...

Trade 2___ reversal 4-8 minutes
Pretty much the same thing but dont jump the gun here..
When you think they are stacked they rarely are, you have to see the PA reaction also... another 40-50 pip TP

Trade 3____ is after 10-12 minutes where it normally has decided a direction and SLs are getting triggered.... This is where most people feel that its safe again...

This worked around 70% of the times for me so pretty good, Ill do it again today with a micro lot and then I can post the results...

PS: one loss and you go to bed...
  • #511,744
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:25am Aug 5, 2011 6:25am
ill bid some butter.. my popcorn is the kind out of the tin can with a christmas tree painted on it.... its gross.. needs flavor
  • #511,745
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:27am Aug 5, 2011 6:27am
Just closed my two failing trades, -55 pips, before NFP. I have this feeling it can shoot up:

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  • #511,746
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:31am Aug 5, 2011 6:31am
Quoting Larseg
This is risky business but the way I did it, however not especially profitable but good enough on average with Oanda:

I took a pretended loss of 400 pips over 4 months,,, cause you want to be able to play at least 4 jobless news before increasing the amount (or decreasing) and you want to make 120-150 pips from each jobless..

Trade 1__ 0-4 minutes
I had the 10 sec chart going with Heiken Ashi and waited for 2-3 candles swapping colors before entering with a 100 pip SL and 40-50 TP level...

Trade 2___ reversal 4-8 minutes
Pretty much the same...
nice one, thanks for the response!

i don't trade the first wave, i let it go. if it's long enough then i wait for the pullback and looking for an entry. obviously the premise is that the first wave is long enough to point the direction. that's not always the case, of course. if the first move is not so significant, i just don't trade it.

SL always very low (20-). if i get SLed - ready for bed, as you say.
big numbers are our friends...
  • #511,747
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:33am Aug 5, 2011 6:33am
Quoting Larseg
This is risky business but the way I did it, however not especially profitable but good enough on average with Oanda:

I took a pretended loss of 400 pips over 4 months,,, cause you want to be able to play at least 4 jobless news before increasing the amount (or decreasing) and you want to make 120-150 pips from each jobless..

Trade 1__ 0-4 minutes
I had the 10 sec chart going with Heiken Ashi and waited for 2-3 candles swapping colors before entering with a 100 pip SL and 40-50 TP level...

Trade 2___ reversal 4-8 minutes
Pretty much...
Are you kidding? 10 sec. chart? Who are you? Some sort of hawk? You must have hawk vision to keep up with the move
  • #511,748
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:34am Aug 5, 2011 6:34am
Quoting deeZG
now, while waiting for it...

so far we've been trying to predict what will it be after the NPF but regardless of the direction and the numbers - do you people have some strategy of trading NPF release? or just stay away until the storm is over?
dont gamble....u can catch the meat of the move
  • #511,749
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:36am Aug 5, 2011 6:36am
on 15 min time frame i see 3 double tops. but after 1 hour we have strong news..
looking for investors . pm me
  • #511,750
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:36am Aug 5, 2011 6:36am
Quoting Larseg
This is risky business but the way I did it, however not especially profitable but good enough on average with Oanda:

I took a pretended loss of 400 pips over 4 months,,, cause you want to be able to play at least 4 jobless news before increasing the amount (or decreasing) and you want to make 120-150 pips from each jobless..

Trade 1__ 0-4 minutes
I had the 10 sec chart going with Heiken Ashi and waited for 2-3 candles swapping colors before entering with a 100 pip SL and 40-50 TP level...

Trade 2___ reversal 4-8 minutes
Pretty much the same...
Most times I can't enter anything cause I lose connection. Even if I didn't lose connection the spreads make it too risky for me. So I set orders a few minutes before (and far away - 100 pips away) that way it can overcome a large spread and avoid head fake. For example: let's say price is at 1.4180. Set sell order at 1.4280 and buy order at 1.4080. Take profit 50 pips. If it hits it hits. If not then I cancel the orders.
  • #511,751
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:37am Aug 5, 2011 6:37am
news channels making people panic, at least once per every 5 min. i am hearing double dip.
Mohan
  • #511,752
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:40am Aug 5, 2011 6:40am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Most times I can't enter anything cause I lose connection. Even if I didn't lose connection the spreads make it too risky for me. So I set orders a few minutes before (and far away - 100 pips away) that way it can overcome a large spread and avoid head fake. For example: let's say price is at 1.4180. Set sell order at 1.4280 and buy order at 1.4080. Take profit 50 pips.

Or you could get a decent broker who has enough liquidity that you don't pay insane spreads during news.
We're all stories in the end. Just try to make it a good one.
  • #511,753
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:42am Aug 5, 2011 6:42am
Price did not passed 4178 area and IMHO, it is due for 4065.
If it break 4178 successfully, it will end up on 4300.
What you guys think?
Thanks..
totutu
  • #511,754
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:43am Aug 5, 2011 6:43am
Quoting Traderji
Or you could get a decent broker who has enough liquidity that you don't pay insane spreads during news.
Oh yeah? Like who?
  • #511,755
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:43am Aug 5, 2011 6:43am
Quoting deeZG
nice one, thanks for the response!

i don't trade the first wave, i let it go. if it's long enough then i wait for the pullback and looking for an entry. obviously the premise is that the first wave is long enough to point the direction. that's not always the case, of course. if the first move is not so significant, i just don't trade it.

SL always very low (20-). if i get SLed - ready for bed, as you say.

Sounds reasonable, just have to trade the reaction

and I think daily FX is faster than FF...

I use my stock platform which is as quick as it gets, doesn't help me though
  • #511,756
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:45am Aug 5, 2011 6:45am
Quoting mohan76
news channels making people panic, at least once per every 5 min. i am hearing double dip.
That's because that is what they perceive the situation to be and what will ensure that people keep watching. The simple fact is that to have a "double dip" recession, one would have to have exited the first recession which quite frankly despite the billions of dollars that Bernanke has printed, hasn't happened.

Secondly the situation today is considerably different from 2008/2009. Back then lending liquidity was the issue. Now there are close to 0% interest rates and the globe is awash with USD.

None of which is to suggest that the outcome will be any different but the circumstances certainly are. In simple terms, the can has been kicked another 24 odd months down the road and unless they continue to do so, the outcome will be much much worse... Artificial justification for QE3? You be the judge.

Just my 2c of course
  • #511,757
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:45am Aug 5, 2011 6:45am
Quoting Larseg
Sounds reasonable, just have to trade the reaction

and I think daily FX is faster than FF...

I use my stock platform which is as quick as it gets, doesn't help me though
they sure do have much better hardware to keep it up and running.

btw: which platform are you using for stocks?
  • #511,758
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:47am Aug 5, 2011 6:47am
Short at 1.4169 within ten pips of daily high... SL at 1.4179(daily high).... TP: somewhere down there...

Worst case scenario: pair makes new high then a new low.
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  • #511,759
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:47am Aug 5, 2011 6:47am
Quoting forexclover
Price did not passed 4178 area and IMHO, it is due for 4065.
If it break 4178 successfully, it will end up on 4300.
What you guys think?
Thanks..
hi there i took a short 4150 and its just srarted to fall as i wright this
Trade What You See Not What You Want To See
  • #511,760
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:49am Aug 5, 2011 6:49am
Quoting pipsallday
hi there i took a short 4150 and its just srarted to fall as i wright this
Thanks bro for your opinion.
I have two shorts and closed one.
Short from 4163 closed.
Short from 4170 running.
totutu
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