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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #25,261
  • Aug 2, 2011 6:23pm Aug 2, 2011 6:23pm
Quoting georgem
some timezones are completely ridiculous.

Did you know that china has (officially) only one time zone for the whole country?

The same time for tibet and shanghai.

Normally you would need 5 timeszones to split that region.

So midday in tibet feels more like early morning...
Yes but China has different business hours for different regions to adjust for what-have-been timezone differences . For example, in Xin Jiang (another self-governmental prefect like Tibet) which should be about 4 hours behind Shanghai, all of the businesses, schools, government offices start at 10:00 Beijing Time instead of 7:00 am like the rest of the country.

So the net effect is the same.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #25,262
  • Aug 2, 2011 6:27pm Aug 2, 2011 6:27pm
Quoting CoffeeGamble
I think you're right.
i also thinks so, but being long yen since friday isnt exactly helping my account fortunately i always open long when us closes, yen always, always this week went up, and then my trade gets taken at Be...so no biggie..fundementals dun lie, but they take time to unravel. 50 pips up n down is fine in normal market conditions on uj, but when intervention talk gets hot, thats when trades of career are made...i will blindly keep buying yen trying not to loose money to start with...technical view, only stochastics are pointing up, since we are oversold for a month now
  • #25,263
  • Aug 2, 2011 6:49pm Aug 2, 2011 6:49pm
Quoting ledobedo
i also thinks so, but being long yen since friday isnt exactly helping my account fortunately i always open long when us closes, yen always, always this week went up, and then my trade gets taken at Be...so no biggie..fundementals dun lie, but they take time to unravel. 50 pips up n down is fine in normal market conditions on uj, but when intervention talk gets hot, thats when trades of career are made...i will blindly keep buying yen trying not to loose money to start with...technical view, only stochastics are pointing up, since we are oversold...
Not a bad idea. I'm long uj too, on a longer time frame, covering overnight with a short-term short on usd/chf. I actually wrote way more, but do you ever get that when you're typing something really long on a forum and accidentally press something on your keyboard which somehow erases everything you wrote. I'm like feck off computer ! Anyways, I'm in the eurozone here and failed miserably at sleeping last night, so I better refresh my brain. Good luck and see you guys later.
  • #25,264
  • Aug 2, 2011 7:02pm Aug 2, 2011 7:02pm
Quoting CoffeeGamble
Anyways, I'm in the eurozone here and failed miserably at sleeping last night, so I better refresh my brain. Good luck and see you guys later.
same here...had long yesterday from 77,15 went to sleep with be sl and 60 pips worth of sleep...same monday...and today i will do the same i think, but one can never know in this market...dow just opened for trading..routine gap trade with 10 points sl can never hurt i need adrenaline to not fall asleep, u all know how it ends when u fall asleep
  • #25,265
  • Aug 2, 2011 7:06pm Aug 2, 2011 7:06pm
2am and yen is kicking ass...japanese work like swiss watches ..lets see what happens now..3rd day lucky
  • #25,266
  • Aug 2, 2011 7:23pm Aug 2, 2011 7:23pm
Hello Buys this is my first post in this thread
i actually dont trade USDJPY because it doent move much, i like high vitalitile pairs like GBPJPY and EURJPY it gives me more pips quickly,
BUT i always look at USDJPY because yen pair mover is USDJPY
so in my technical and fundamental view
78.30 is possible end of the week
and dont forget yen is very high it is hurting the economy
see at audusd when it went hoo high
anyways be ware because intervention will become any time soon in both BOJ and SNB
they ahve to do it they will be forced to do that because they dont want their imports and exports to hurt any more
and one more thing CHF is too low because it is like safe heaven now
but when SNB will interviene it will be rocking specually GBPCHf
bought and waiting for it to rock
my technical suggests 1.2700 can be in a quick move

comments will be appreciated

goto my last posts and see what i have done in the past in EURUSD
last 10-15 posts.

Leverage is Poison and i love PoIsOn.
Don't compare your Trades with Others
  • #25,267
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:27pm Aug 2, 2011 8:27pm
85.00 is likely if 76.00 dun break....I'm bullish with
USDJPY now....went long @ 77.00, now making
some pips....
  • #25,268
  • Aug 2, 2011 9:58pm Aug 2, 2011 9:58pm
Choppy video.....but worth the watch.....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...jqI_video.html
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #25,269
  • Aug 3, 2011 1:12am Aug 3, 2011 1:12am
Citi Believes BOJ Will Intervene At USDJPY 76, Says Any Intervention Will Likely Be Insufficient


With everyone and their mother now expecting the BOJ to do absolutely nothing courtesy of Noda's now hourly announcements that he is watching the JPY like a hawk, or simply a confirmation that the Japanese central bank is as toothless as the SNB (EURCHF at 1.0952 at last check) to do much if anything, here is Citi's Osamu Takashima, who writes that the BOJ will intervene at a level of 76 on the USDJPY or about 9500 on the Nikkei. Bloomberg All News summarizes the highlights of his note.

Possibility of BOJ intervention is much higher if Nikkei and USD/JPY falls to 9,500 and 76, respectively.
Last 2 BOJ interventions in September 2010 and March 2011 didn’t benefit Japanese exporters as much as margin FX investors, aka Mrs. Watanabe.
Rough calculations show FX margin players may be holding about 2.8t yen or $36b in short-yen positions.
BOJ/MOF would need to intervene at least 3t yen or $38b to help Japanese exports.
And the reason why another BOJ intervention will need the entire G-7 complex to step in again like they did in March:

Japanese exporters keen to sell USD/JPY at 80 level
Solo BOJ intervention may lift USD/JPY by only 3 big figures; thus if BOJ intervene around 76, it’s insufficient to reach 80 level targeted by exporters
We believe that selling into any USDJPY strength is the trade here as any 100 pip or so bounce will be promptly sold by the market following the realization that such (un)sterilized interventions now have a half life of a few hours
  • #25,270
  • Aug 3, 2011 1:22am Aug 3, 2011 1:22am
Quoting Demon Bane
85.00 is likely if 76.00 dun break....I'm bullish with
USDJPY now....went long @ 77.00, now making
some pips....
Exited @ 77.30....seems like turning bearish....
ADP news should move it...
  • #25,271
  • Aug 3, 2011 2:02am Aug 3, 2011 2:02am
Bloomberg TV reporting breaking news that the SNB has "taken measures" to intervene on the forex market ! Swiss trying to weaken Swiss franc and Japanese trying to weaken yen at the same time now.

This could be a form of concerted effort, to be honest, increasing the strength of the pro-greenback dealers.
  • #25,272
  • Aug 3, 2011 2:07am Aug 3, 2011 2:07am
Quoting CoffeeGamble
Bloomberg TV reporting breaking news that the SNB has "taken measures" to intervene on the forex market ! Swiss trying to weaken Swiss franc and Japanese trying to weaken yen at the same time now.

This could be a form of concerted effort, to be honest, increasing the strength of the pro-greenback dealers.
Nice bump up. Will it stick?
  • #25,273
  • Aug 3, 2011 2:07am Aug 3, 2011 2:07am
USD/CHF about 100 pips stronger in five minutes. Yen inching weaker vs. dollar, but much slower.

Quoting 2+2=4ex
Nice bump up. Will it stick?
I have no idea, but this is good action nevertheless. Forget Spielberg.
  • #25,274
  • Aug 3, 2011 3:21am Aug 3, 2011 3:21am
Attached
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  • #25,275
  • Aug 3, 2011 3:29am Aug 3, 2011 3:29am
Quoting DubaiFX
Hello Buys this is my first post in this thread
i actually dont trade USDJPY because it doent move much, i like high vitalitile pairs like GBPJPY and EURJPY it gives me more pips quickly,
BUT i always look at USDJPY because yen pair mover is USDJPY
so in my technical and fundamental view
78.30 is possible end of the week
and dont forget yen is very high it is hurting the economy
see at audusd when it went hoo high
anyways be ware because intervention will become any time soon in both BOJ and SNB
they ahve to do it they will be forced to do that...

As i said before intervention we can se clearly in CHF now the question is when will japan response time will tell but in my estimate till friday..

so i will buy eurjpy or GBPJPY instead of USDJPY will let you know guys when i will enter..
just closed my gbpchf long with 160 pips
and looking to reload again till 1.29
good luck guys..
any comments will be appreciated

will let
Don't compare your Trades with Others
  • #25,276
  • Aug 3, 2011 8:24am Aug 3, 2011 8:24am
Looks like someone is trying to force BoJ's hand here. I think they are trying to prod them to act before they are ready,ie, before the central bank meeting on Thu and Fri. My bet would be in China, who is the ultimate bad actor.
  • #25,277
  • Aug 3, 2011 8:37am Aug 3, 2011 8:37am
Quoting wontfindanam
Looks like someone is trying to force BoJ's hand here. I think they are trying to prod them to act before they are ready,ie, before the central bank meeting on Thu and Fri. My bet would be in China, who is the ultimate bad actor.
I would forget about intervention. Seems to me the last efforts have had only minimal very short lasting effects----in other words it did not work and there is no reason to think it will be successful this time.

If they intervene, any desired effects will be offset by bad U.S. economic data.

So what is the use?
  • #25,278
  • Aug 3, 2011 9:11am Aug 3, 2011 9:11am
You are thinking linearly here. You need to think like a politician. The MOF is under a lot of pressure to act from exporters. They have to show that they are proactive, even if it is ultimately ineffective. The problem is that noone can really justify the current yen level, even with the US economic woes. Ultimately, the yen is going to correct to more sustainable levels and the paper "loss" of the BOJ will turn into a humongous profit.
  • #25,279
  • Aug 3, 2011 9:42am Aug 3, 2011 9:42am
Quoting wontfindanam
You need to think like a politician.
Thinking like a trader will be more profitable.
Once again we are at the lows of the day and people just want to buy! Why?
If the buyers stop trying to double guess the market and what might happen, they would be short and in profit.
If we start to see real Yen weakness/USD strength, you can then change your bias according to the charts.
Just don't get married to a single bias and follow the tend.
  • #25,280
  • Aug 3, 2011 9:47am Aug 3, 2011 9:47am
Quoting wontfindanam
Ultimately, the yen is going to correct to more sustainable levels and the paper "loss" of the BOJ will turn into a humongous profit.
I agree that ultimately this downtrend is going to reverse with huge gains for the Longs when it makes it's huge move to the upside.

But when?

Next year?

And how much farther down will it go before that happens?

Until we see real lasting improvement in the U.S. employment picture and a recovery in the housing market I would not look for any significant or lasting upside movement in this Pair.

That is just my opinion.
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