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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #25,241
  • Aug 2, 2011 2:07am Aug 2, 2011 2:07am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Here is a copy and paste from 2009 which was posted by bpatto. I hope he doesn't mind me repeating it here, but it gives some insight into how the BoJ operates. He traded Asian markets extensively since the 1980s.

**********************************
Speaking from experience, the BOJ won't just flood the market with Yen. There will be a few precursor steps they will take, they want to get value for money.

Firstly they will leak news that they are going to intervene, this has already happened, and will continue to happen. It will in effect remove...
Nice post. Thanks.
  • #25,242
  • Aug 2, 2011 2:07am Aug 2, 2011 2:07am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Here is a copy and paste from 2009 which was posted by bpatto. I hope he doesn't mind me repeating it here, but it gives some insight into how the BoJ operates. He traded Asian markets extensively since the 1980s.

**********************************
Speaking from experience, the BOJ won't just flood the market with Yen. There will be a few precursor steps they will take, they want to get value for money.

Firstly they will leak news that they are going to intervene, this has already happened, and will continue to happen. It will in effect remove...
Thanks, that's very helpful Good to get an idea of how they will operate.
  • #25,243
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:03am Aug 2, 2011 3:03am
I trade what charts tell and not based on some intervention.

Keep a stop loss to protect your capital..

In general when economy is not doing good dollar strengthens and entire Dollar asian currency carry trade unwinds..
  • #25,244
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:07am Aug 2, 2011 3:07am
Quoting ultra_knight
I trade what charts tell and not based on some intervention.

Keep a stop loss to protect your capital..

In general when economy is not doing good dollar strengthens and entire Dollar asian currency carry trade unwinds..
Firstly, there is no Dollar/Yen carry trade currently active.
Secondly, if the Dollar strengthens against Yen, there is no unwind.
  • #25,245
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:17am Aug 2, 2011 3:17am
Quoting ultra_knight
I trade what charts tell and not based on some intervention.

Keep a stop loss to protect your capital..

In general when economy is not doing good dollar strengthens and entire Dollar asian currency carry trade unwinds..
As ukdaytrader points out, no carry trade when both USD and JPY are traded against each other. However, both these currencies are commonly used as the other side of a carry trade versus higher interest rated currency. So if dollar strengthens then any carry traded pair (such as AUD/USD) may begin to unwind. If JPY weakens, then carry trades involving yen begin to wind up.
  • #25,246
  • Aug 2, 2011 4:48am Aug 2, 2011 4:48am
I heard Japan wants to increase exports because of their weak economy so they'll want a weak yen.
  • #25,247
  • Aug 2, 2011 4:53am Aug 2, 2011 4:53am
Quoting AlexC
I heard Japan wants to increase exports because of their weak economy so they'll want a weak yen.
Normally, such a statement is considered speculation (assuming you don't know any of the officials in Japan personally). However, there is good reason to believe such is the case since there are constant threats of intervention made by Japan themselves.
  • #25,248
  • Aug 2, 2011 5:11am Aug 2, 2011 5:11am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Here is a copy and paste from 2009 which was posted by bpatto. I hope he doesn't mind me repeating it here, but it gives some insight into how the BoJ operates. He traded Asian markets extensively since the 1980s.

**********************************
Speaking from experience, the BOJ won't just flood the market with Yen. There will be a few precursor steps they will take, they want to get value for money.

Hope it's helpful to someone.
Thanks for sharing bro!
  • #25,249
  • Aug 2, 2011 1:31pm Aug 2, 2011 1:31pm
I sense another crazy sell-off between 5-6pm EDT. This would bring out the BOJ big guns to curb the insanity + wipe out the low-grade shorts.
  • #25,250
  • Aug 2, 2011 2:41pm Aug 2, 2011 2:41pm
Quoting wontfindanam
I sense another crazy sell-off between 5-6pm EDT. This would bring out the BOJ big guns to curb the insanity + wipe out the low-grade shorts.

I would just like to see 79.50 by the end of the week.....does not matter how we get there.........as for your comment...20 more minutes till the insanity stops?
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #25,251
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:02pm Aug 2, 2011 3:02pm
I think the BoJ just exchanged Yen for Swissie. Wicked spike there first.

I was contemplating hedging my long USDJPY by shorting USD/CHF. That was close !
  • #25,252
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:19pm Aug 2, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting CoffeeGamble
I think the BoJ just exchanged Yen for Swissie. Wicked spike there first.

I was contemplating hedging my long USDJPY by shorting USD/CHF. That was close !
BOJ does not open for market operations for another 1hr 40mins. Must have been someone else.
We're all stories in the end. Just try to make it a good one.
  • #25,253
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:45pm Aug 2, 2011 3:45pm
i smell something fishy.. since monday, at 11 gmt yen always weakens as if someone was trying to start a rally or its just taking stops. nonetheless yen makes high, everyday lower high and lower low. today no lows during eu/us session but low for usdchf.. i have happy trigger fingers now, taking gbpjpy long
  • #25,254
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:46pm Aug 2, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting Traderji
BOJ does not open for market operations for another 1hr 40mins. Must have been someone else.
I thought BoJ can operate whenever they want, whereever they want, by using their subsidiaries/desks around the world...

They sure are not bound by any opening hours of exchanges.

If BoJ chooses to act, they can do it anytime they want. 24/7 (without weekend)
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #25,255
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:48pm Aug 2, 2011 3:48pm
Quoting georgem
(without weekend)
what a gap wud that be wonder whether ppl wud try to play the ''closing the gap game'' hahahahaha
  • #25,256
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:53pm Aug 2, 2011 3:53pm
Quoting ledobedo
what a gap wud that be wonder whether ppl wud try to play the ''closing the gap game'' hahahahaha
lol!
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #25,257
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:57pm Aug 2, 2011 3:57pm
Quoting Traderji
BOJ does not open for market operations for another 1hr 40mins. Must have been someone else.
I disagree. That's like saying you can't buy anything on a holiday because supermarkets are closed.

Quoting ledobedo
what a gap wud that be wonder whether ppl wud try to play the ''closing the gap game'' hahahahaha
On a sidenote, that reminds me how interesting life must be near the international date line.
  • #25,258
  • Aug 2, 2011 4:02pm Aug 2, 2011 4:02pm
Quoting CoffeeGamble
I disagree. That's like saying you can't buy anything on a holiday because supermarkets are closed.

i also think any big bank, not only central banks have all data all the time...weekend might actually be the best time to do such intervention that obviously everyone is waiting for..noone can short it!!!!!
  • #25,259
  • Aug 2, 2011 4:02pm Aug 2, 2011 4:02pm
Quoting CoffeeGamble
On a sidenote, that reminds me how interesting life must be near the international date line.
some timezones are completely ridiculous.

Did you know that china has (officially) only one time zone for the whole country?

The same time for tibet and shanghai.

Normally you would need 5 timeszones to split that region.

So midday in tibet feels more like early morning...
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #25,260
  • Aug 2, 2011 4:16pm Aug 2, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting ledobedo
i also think any big bank, not only central banks have all data all the time...weekend might actually be the best time to do such intervention that obviously everyone is waiting for..noone can short it!!!!!
Exactly. If a bank has trading rooms in Hawaii and New Zealand, the combined weekend time of both locations is extremely short anyways. The press of a button and they're online with each other scheming things.

I've heard a trader who talked about the BoJ often intervening on weekends when counteraction is very difficult. I think you're right.


Quoting georgem
some timezones are completely ridiculous.

Did you know that china has (officially) only one time zone for the whole country?

The same time for tibet and shanghai.

Normally you would need 5 timeszones to split that region.

So midday in tibet feels more like early morning...

Wow, I didn't know that, ridiculous but sounds cool.
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