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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #25,181
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:29am Aug 1, 2011 10:29am
BOJ going to be fuming mad tomorrow , someone should be out to talk , usdx up yet yen appreciate even higher.
  • #25,182
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:30am Aug 1, 2011 10:30am
falling knife
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  • #25,183
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:30am Aug 1, 2011 10:30am
Quoting whatfx
what is the reason for you entering long ?

my charts are not showing a long signal yet (1 hr chart).

if you are entering long based on the market falling so heavily, then that is kind of a dangerous thing to do.
If he has his stop loss in the right place, why would that be dangerous ?


Quoting ddinnov
If it was I don't think they'd try and intervene during the London+ New York session, they'd wait until there's low liquidity
Good point, but it makes me wonder who else would've bought so much within seconds. That's why I was thinking they could be just experimenting and analyzing behaviour before they really get serious.
  • #25,184
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:42am Aug 1, 2011 10:42am
Looks like today's action might just be a hint at what we are going to see all week one big roller coaster ride and who knows how this thing is going to turn out but it is too crazy for me.

Job numbers coming out later this week and the debt ceiling vote is far from a done deal. I am not very confident that this thing is going to pass. What a difference a week makes. Last week at this time I thought they would have settled by the weekend at the latest.

I bailed late last week at a loss. There just doesn't seem to be any good news from the U.S.and it gets worse with each passing day.This shit is going to be crazy all week so I am just going to observe from the sidelines.
  • #25,185
  • Aug 1, 2011 11:24am Aug 1, 2011 11:24am
ok fellas iam back.

just entered a small short position. hope to grab a few pips before days end.
  • #25,186
  • Aug 1, 2011 11:43am Aug 1, 2011 11:43am
Quoting CoffeeGamble
If he has his stop loss in the right place, why would that be dangerous ?




Good point, but it makes me wonder who else would've bought so much within seconds. That's why I was thinking they could be just experimenting and analyzing behaviour before they really get serious.

you missed my point. it isnt about having the stop in the right place or the actual trade. the idea that 'oh the market has fallen too much and is now gonna go up' is what is dangerous. that is what i was pointing out.

any trade can be taken provided you have the right stop in place. thats beside the point.
  • #25,187
  • Aug 1, 2011 12:13pm Aug 1, 2011 12:13pm
USD Index
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  • #25,188
  • Aug 1, 2011 12:14pm Aug 1, 2011 12:14pm
NIKKEI reports that BoJ may take policy steps at Thursday-Friday meeting, coordinated intervention may follow.

Good luck all

/out
"Everyone gets what they want out of the market." -- Ed Seykota
  • #25,189
  • Aug 1, 2011 12:15pm Aug 1, 2011 12:15pm
what the f was that a few mins ago, trigger at pivot 77 ??
  • #25,190
  • Aug 1, 2011 12:17pm Aug 1, 2011 12:17pm
Japenese bank intervention may be highly likely especially if Moody's eyes a US downgrade. We are in for a bumpy ride. GOOD luck to all! http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=307191
  • #25,191
  • Aug 1, 2011 12:38pm Aug 1, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting V4X
NIKKEI reports that BoJ may take policy steps at Thursday-Friday meeting, coordinated intervention may follow.
Get your finger ready on that short button once the dust has settled after an intervention!
  • #25,192
  • Aug 1, 2011 12:40pm Aug 1, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting Unknownpips
especially if Moody's eyes a US downgrade.
Last I heard if a downgrade comes it will not be from Moody's but only from S&P unless something has changed? I hope it hasn't changed.
  • #25,193
  • Aug 1, 2011 1:07pm Aug 1, 2011 1:07pm
BOJ looks to increase their asset buying program by 5- 10 trillion yen. All in all, it is not that much probably why the Yen isn't really falling off a cliff by now.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #25,194
  • Aug 1, 2011 1:14pm Aug 1, 2011 1:14pm
Quoting fosking
Get your finger ready on that short button once the dust has settled after an intervention!
- No bank, country, will EVER pre-announce an intervention
- If it happens you don't wanna hold your fingers on the short button because it may take a few days to settle. Your fingers will get cramped.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #25,195
  • Aug 1, 2011 1:29pm Aug 1, 2011 1:29pm
Is a long a good decision now?? Looks like U/J bounced from strong support?
  • #25,196
  • Aug 1, 2011 1:30pm Aug 1, 2011 1:30pm
The concerted G20 yentervention in March worked and the yen depreciated for almost a month against the Greenback and Euro. Whoever speculated that the intervention would be useless back then probably got owned, so I would be wary of suggesting that those intervening haven't got a clue. Maybe the BoJ are more on their own this time though.
  • #25,197
  • Aug 1, 2011 2:06pm Aug 1, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting CoffeeGamble
The concerted G20 yentervention in March worked and the yen depreciated for almost a month against the Greenback and Euro. Whoever speculated that the intervention would be useless back then probably got owned, so I would be wary of suggesting that those intervening haven't got a clue. Maybe the BoJ are more on their own this time though.
Actually, leaders from Europe and USA spoke to Japanese counterparts on the intervention. So it may be more than just Japan involved once again on the sell-off. It is actually quite scary for Japan's future prospects as a major exporting country if their currency continues to strengthen in these economic conditions (US debt, European debt etc).
  • #25,198
  • Aug 1, 2011 2:08pm Aug 1, 2011 2:08pm
Quoting CoffeeGamble
Whoever speculated that the intervention would be useless back then probably got owned
Owned as in we are seeing all time lows again shortly after?

KillerWhale is right, there will be no pre-announcement. The Japanese know the situation is to do with outside forces and not Japans. Thus making any intervention pretty much pointless as all the others have been before. Sure it will shake out some of the weaker shorts, but those serious won't exactly be quaking in their boots.

Please also remember that the coordinated weakening of the Yens only goal was to bring the price back up to pre-quake levels and nothing more. They won the battle, but not the war. The Big Boys loved this and it was clearly a free lunch for them (as can be seen by looking at the USD/JPY chart).

Why are people still trying to catch this falling knife after so long?
People who pick bottoms get stinky fingers, like ultra knight who tried to long a few hours ago and got burned.
Stop making hero calls and you will profit like the Big Boys do.
  • #25,199
  • Aug 1, 2011 2:10pm Aug 1, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting fosking
O
Stop making hero calls and you will profit like the Big Boys do.
Are the big boys gobbling short-bread still? What if they crumble - no more lunch?
  • #25,200
  • Aug 1, 2011 2:19pm Aug 1, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting Unknownpips
Are the big boys gobbling short-bread still? What if they crumble - no more lunch?
We are talking michelin starred chefs here. They make the rules. Not us McDonalds lot.
Your chart tells you all you need to know, it's not by accident we are back down here is it.
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