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Trade What You See - Almost Naked Trading

  • #17,101
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:12pm Jul 29, 2011 12:12pm
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Hi All,
I have been following this thread for a couple of months now and very pleased to have found it. It makes a refreshing change that there are no ego's and trash talk here.I use S/R lines and very little else. LG's method really brings results.

Thanks LG
  • #17,102
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:48pm Jul 29, 2011 12:48pm
Quoting lawgirl21
Thanks for the kind words, Delite.

Yes, open and close above/below the S/R lines, but next candle needs to be going in desired direction and with this market, we have been waiting for a close above/below any wick that may have formed.

A pleasure!

Thanks for the clarification. Will post some charts next week.

Have a great weekend
  • #17,103
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:50pm Jul 29, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting lawgirl21
I will have to adopt your attitude about uncharted areas. They scare me and I tend to try to stay away from them. USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY...I have stayed away from them, but I check on them just in case they take off.

Aussie has been a real money maker..totally agree.
I love those uncharted areas
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  • #17,104
  • Jul 29, 2011 1:02pm Jul 29, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting TradingNoob
Ok Ninj, I think I see what you're saying. Now you'd just be looking for some red arrows to compliment the taps, I think.

And I really appreciate your taking the time to expand on my question!

Thanks mate!
Yes that is correct, but there is more.

This is to follow up on the story of the trendlines in USDCAD.
It's a two part story.
I wrote the first part this morning, before I left home, but forgot to post it here.
The second part was written just now, due to changing market conditions

Right now, during London session, there is another attempt to get back above 0.95 level.
As you can see, price has breached the magenta trendline and is trading above 0.95.
Now the question is, is this a succesful breakout above the trendline ?
The answer is, I do not know for sure, but I think this is not a valid breakout.
Why not ?
The price action that follows the "breakout" is not convincing.
Price has also not traded above this week's high.
Another thing to consider is that the trendline is drawn poorly.
Maybe it should be drawn with a different angle, using different points etc...
(dotted yellow line for example)
Although the signals are mixed, I enter a short trade right now with a tight stop loss.
Don't have the time to monitor the trade, it's time to play outside with my kids and go the Zoo.

Coming back home at the end of the day, I see that price has gone up, and the trade was stopped out with a loss.
(see second chart)

The lesson to be learned here is that trendlines, no matter how you draw them, do serve a purpose.
Another lesson is that this was a really bad trade for several reasons.
The signals were mixed and point to a further advance (divergence in RSI).
There was also no real price action to justify the short trade.
However, bearish as I was on the USDollar, I was too eager to enter a short trade.
So actually this was not a trade, but a gamble.
It was a gamble for a declining USDollar.
And I lost this gamble.

Hope that helps and thanks for reading
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  • #17,105
  • Jul 29, 2011 1:15pm Jul 29, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting Nijn
The idea is to stay in the trend as long possible.
As long as the uptrend is still there, my long position is still there as well.
Well, the problem is....the short term uptrend was broken overnight.
The break was not according to plan, so part of my long position got stopped out at 1.0950.

Long term I am still bullish on this one, so I decided to not close all the longs.
In order to protect the remaining long AUDUSD, I shorted NZDUSD, so that gives me a long AUDNZD.
This turned out to be a good trade and profitable switch during the volatile overnight and daylight sessions.
I got stopped out of my short NZDUSD at 0.8650 with a profit.
Even better, I still have my long AUDUSD.
Meanwhile the price is back to the trendline again, struggling for the 1.10 level again.
And we are again on our way into uncharted areas.
I really like this
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  • #17,106
  • Jul 29, 2011 1:46pm Jul 29, 2011 1:46pm
Quoting Delite
A pleasure!

Thanks for the clarification. Will post some charts next week.

Have a great weekend
No problem, it will be a deelight to do so

And some settings, it just plots up to 5 vertical lines at the time of your choice, quite easy, text is as per your choice also, very handy
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File Type: mq4 Xi-VLines20v1.02.mq4   13 KB | 761 downloads
File Type: ex4 Xi-VLines20v1.02.ex4   13 KB | 678 downloads
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #17,107
  • Jul 29, 2011 4:14pm Jul 29, 2011 4:14pm
lawgirl, what's with your eurusd trade? still on?
  • #17,108
  • Jul 30, 2011 10:05am Jul 30, 2011 10:05am
Quoting autoforex1
lawgirl, what's with your eurusd trade? still on?
No, I had two long trades on about July 26. Both hit my TP for about 25 on one and 40 on the other. But I caught it going down and made another 100 pips on it over the next 2 days.
  • #17,109
  • Jul 30, 2011 10:46am Jul 30, 2011 10:46am
July 26, 2011
Break to the upside for about 30 pips before turning and heading down for the remainder of the week.

July 27, and July 28
Textbook almost identical moves down around 50 pips each day.

July 29, 2011
Price taking a break. Consolidation to decide where to go next. Plenty of room still to the downside, but may head back up.

H4 Chart
Candles, as do the RSIs, show total indecision.
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  • #17,110
  • Jul 30, 2011 11:53am Jul 30, 2011 11:53am
Quoting mathtrader
[font=Helvetica][size=3][font=Helvetica][size=3][left]When our trades lose money, whatever our logic, we can be sure we were not alone. But we can equally be sure that we were in the minority. Had we been in the majority the market would have performed as anticipated. The market decision process is that simple. It is a matter of putting our behavior in line with the majority as often as we can. The most effective tool to achieve that is our own empirically tested market psychology. We are the market, if only we can let ourselves mimic the mind of...
I have exactly the opposite view. The market is merely part of the real world. As a part of the whole it obeys the same set of rules as the whole. There is no democracy here, only the illusion of it. In the real world a minority enjoys most of the wealth and power. Logic follows that a minority is responsible for most of the market moves as well. I really wish everything was like you described, but rich and poor people simply do not have the same weight/saying on matters.

Before you start arguing on the merits/flaws of each perspective give it an honest thought.

If the majority is consistently right as you argue, then why is it that every broker data shows that the majority of their clients are unprofitable?
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #17,111
  • Jul 31, 2011 9:08am Jul 31, 2011 9:08am
Quoting lawgirl21
July 26, 2011
Break to the upside for about 30 pips before turning and heading down for the remainder of the week.

July 27, and July 28
Textbook almost identical moves down around 50 pips each day.

July 29, 2011
Price taking a break. Consolidation to decide where to go next. Plenty of room still to the downside, but may head back up.

H4 Chart
Candles, as do the RSIs, show total indecision.
Those were nice trades in EURGBP
It was already mentioned that a H&S pattern is forming on the daily chart.
We are near the neckline.
Any ideas for next week ?
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  • #17,112
  • Jul 31, 2011 9:11am Jul 31, 2011 9:11am
AUDNZD is still on my watchlist.
Long term, price is approaching interesting levels (see weekly chart).
Past two weeks (see H4 chart) showing several H43T setups, and BO trades.
I only took one trade, and I was lucky to get out with positive pips on a long trade in a downtrend.
Now price returns to the bottom of the trading range and taps the H4 line again.
Opportunities for a downside BO and upside H43T next week.

Ideas and comments are very much appreciated
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  • #17,113
  • Jul 31, 2011 9:55am Jul 31, 2011 9:55am
Quoting Nijn
AUDNZD is still on my watchlist.
Long term, price is approaching interesting levels (see weekly chart).
Past two weeks (see H4 chart) showing several H43T setups, and BO trades.
I only took one trade, and I was lucky to get out with positive pips on a long trade in a downtrend.
Now price returns to the bottom of the trading range and taps the H4 line again.
Opportunities for a downside BO and upside H43T next week.

Ideas and comments are very much appreciated
This pair on my watch list too. I went through all the pairs over the weekend and decided to exclude all pairs that are at all time highs/lows as I don't what to try predicting how much higher/lower they will go.

That's the following pairs:
EURCHF, GBPCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCHF, NZDUSD, EURAUD, and AUDCAD, with USDCAD and GBPJPY almost at all time lows (around 500 and 800 pips away, still room down).

That leaves plenty of pairs to trade, including EURGBP which is one of my favorite pairs.
  • #17,114
  • Aug 1, 2011 2:40am Aug 1, 2011 2:40am
Gold opened with about 130 pips gap. It may close de gap
We trade to live not live to trade................
  • #17,115
  • Aug 1, 2011 4:41am Aug 1, 2011 4:41am
Im gonna watch this possible BO in EURGBP
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  • #17,116
  • Aug 1, 2011 8:28am Aug 1, 2011 8:28am
Quoting lawgirl21
This pair on my watch list too. I went through all the pairs over the weekend and decided to exclude all pairs that are at all time highs/lows as I don't what to try predicting how much higher/lower they will go.

That's the following pairs:
EURCHF, GBPCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCHF, NZDUSD, EURAUD, and AUDCAD, with USDCAD and GBPJPY almost at all time lows (around 500 and 800 pips away, still room down).

That leaves plenty of pairs to trade, including EURGBP which is one of my favorite pairs.
That being said...these two pairs open yesterday with 92 and 84 pip gaps up. I could not resist trading them. They have both closed back down now.
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  • #17,117
  • Aug 1, 2011 8:51am Aug 1, 2011 8:51am
Starting to break...
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  • #17,118
  • Aug 1, 2011 8:52am Aug 1, 2011 8:52am
Pipfest... Lots of nice BOs this morning. here is one.
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  • #17,119
  • Aug 1, 2011 8:53am Aug 1, 2011 8:53am
Breaking here too.
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  • #17,120
  • Aug 1, 2011 8:54am Aug 1, 2011 8:54am
Another one. Got a few pips on this one too... Same on Cable and GBPCAD... Too many to post..
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