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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #25,081
  • Jul 30, 2011 8:56am Jul 30, 2011 8:56am
Sell the rumor, buy the news

Everyone knows there will be a debt ceiling increase so I don't know what all the fuss is about.

Maybe the scare tactics of CNN and FOX? And traders are stupid enough to believe it all?

S
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #25,082
  • Jul 30, 2011 9:24am Jul 30, 2011 9:24am
i agree with you.

Quoting tankokjian
BOJ will start intervening when everyone loses hope.
the reason for the sharp south movement is investors pulling out of us and inputing in safe haven jap.
  • #25,083
  • Edited 10:03am Jul 30, 2011 9:41am | Edited 10:03am
Sometimes The Rumor are true,Sometimes are not..
Sometimes The News are true,Sometimes are not...

So as a Trader What can we do?

From Technical View,Always Trade based on the Chart analysis..
From Fundamental View,Always Trade based on the News...
From Religion View,Always Trade based on what you Pray....
From Human View,Always Trade based on what your feel and emotion.....

ps ; Weekend Joke
  • #25,084
  • Jul 30, 2011 12:07pm Jul 30, 2011 12:07pm
omg it can happen ,


Quoting TrendTraders
Possible we will see 70.50 Once It Break 76.xx
  • #25,085
  • Jul 30, 2011 2:21pm Jul 30, 2011 2:21pm
I m long personally gambling a little on the gap. From my view intervention is to be more feared than market movement. I too pray obama will slap his boys and sort the debt ceiling vote. The technicals dun look so good,but(very big but) we are few pips from last 400 or so pip intervention. If am m wrong and no vote,then default, we migh very well be in bigger trouble and -50 pip trade with 76,2 sl would be least of ur problems.
  • #25,086
  • Jul 30, 2011 2:54pm Jul 30, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting ledobedo
I m long personally gambling
I'm curious what impact you think raising the debt ceiling will bring?
The US either digs itself into even more shit than it's already in, or the opportunity to default. Which would be better for the USD? And would either option negate the play of the safe haven JPY whatever the outcome?
Noda has clearly stated that outside factors are the the reason for the strength of the Yen. Do you believe he has the strength to fend off this safe haven strength?
The arse has just fallen through the USD/JPY and any buys now are very close to getting smelly fingers from picking bottoms.
The Yen had it's chance a couple of months ago to weaken and couldn't manage it. The only trade since then has been sell.
At the first sign of intervention (unlikely at the moment) and you need to be selling your house and buying JPY! It's what the big boys are waiting for!
  • #25,087
  • Jul 30, 2011 3:12pm Jul 30, 2011 3:12pm
Fair enough but everyone knows japan can not afford this kind of strenght. This has been their policy for a long time and is not going to change until they stop declaring they are export led economy. Noda said a lot in past week and mentioned if anything will happen it will be after debt stuff is resolved. I dont think usa will be fine in month,but if they reach some compromise,then for few days until reality kicks in again dollar strenght and dow paring losses is not that unlikely scenario. Euro selling will also help the dollar. Nowadays we are picking less shitty currencies against more shitty ones. save heaven currencies have the tendency to annoy its finance ministers
  • #25,088
  • Jul 30, 2011 4:11pm Jul 30, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting ledobedo
I m long personally gambling a little on the gap. From my view intervention is to be more feared than market movement. I too pray obama will slap his boys and sort the debt ceiling vote. The technicals dun look so good,but(very big but) we are few pips from last 400 or so pip intervention. If am m wrong and no vote,then default, we migh very well be in bigger trouble and -50 pip trade with 76,2 sl would be least of ur problems.
Be very careful thinking like this and try to put yourselves in Japan's shoes.

When you see a speeding train going in one direction which is totally unrelated to your own economy, do you try to stop it? The BoJ would be mad to try to intervene until every ramification has played out. The G7 may not be quite so keen on any joint interventions this time round with the US being so close to the brink, which leaves the BoJ on their own. They will want to maximise the impact of any intervention, not merely slow down the move.
UJ is just about the biggest sell on the board right now imo.
  • #25,089
  • Jul 30, 2011 4:34pm Jul 30, 2011 4:34pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Be very careful thinking like this and try to put yourselves in Japan's shoes.

They will want to maximise the impact of any intervention
Any us resolvement,even If short term, will ease the buying of jpy,chf and others. If so intervention will be maximised. Long term cud very well be differrnt but i really doubt us wud default.this is too big of a gamble for stubborn politicians to take. Trend doest lie but there is too much at stake.
  • #25,090
  • Jul 30, 2011 7:57pm Jul 30, 2011 7:57pm
the words are so true. Sell the rumor, buy the news


Quoting KillerWhale
Sell the rumor, buy the news

Everyone knows there will be a debt ceiling increase so I don't know what all the fuss is about.

Maybe the scare tactics of CNN and FOX? And traders are stupid enough to believe it all?

S
  • #25,091
  • Jul 30, 2011 8:00pm Jul 30, 2011 8:00pm
boj will have to hedge somewhere because if another george soros who wants to bust boj they might not be able to recover to 76 level again if it falls too much.

we all know it is another debt ceiling raise .


Quoting ukdaytrader
Be very careful thinking like this and try to put yourselves in Japan's shoes.

When you see a speeding train going in one direction which is totally unrelated to your own economy, do you try to stop it? The BoJ would be mad to try to intervene until every ramification has played out. The G7 may not be quite so keen on any joint interventions this time round with the US being so close to the brink, which leaves the BoJ on their own. They will want to maximise the impact of any intervention, not merely slow down the move.
UJ is just about the biggest...
  • #25,092
  • Jul 31, 2011 10:46am Jul 31, 2011 10:46am
I think we are missing an important point in the debt discussions. Senate is debating on raising the ceiling and the opposition is due to the lack of committment in reducing the govt spending. Once the deal is struck there should be right checks and balances in place to check the excessive govt spending. That is addressing the root cause, which was never seriously discussed like now. That itself is a strong sign that US is on right track to get back its place, may not be immediate, but on a slow pace. With the Apples selling like hot cakes, a country where domestic market is so vibrant will surely come up, comparing to Japan with huge personal savings, but lower domestic spending power.

If you look at the Euro, unity in the countries to address the issues is the right step and any more defaults are not big issues. On the same line, by addressing the root cause, the decline in USD is ending. Am I right?

I am sure the coming NFP data is not as bad as before. US is in slow, but steady recovery path. Wait for a few hundred pips drop in UJ and then it is ready to go long.
  • #25,093
  • Jul 31, 2011 11:48am Jul 31, 2011 11:48am
Quoting PipMaxzz
the decline in USD is ending. Am I right?
Would you stand by this statement if talk of QE3 doesn't reside, which will inevitably weaken the USD further?
I think at this time patience is needed. The US is skating on thin ice and it's craking.
I'm sure too that there will be a deal met to raise the debt ceiling. We will have to see how the market reacts after the honeymoon period is over.
Forcing a position at the moment is risky and calling a bottom is even more so.
  • #25,094
  • Jul 31, 2011 1:27pm Jul 31, 2011 1:27pm
UJ will be opening with GAP UP today
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #25,095
  • Edited 1:33pm Jul 31, 2011 1:31pm | Edited 1:33pm
Quoting KillerWhale
UJ will be opening with GAP UP today

Reasoning please? I would like to see this also.....as it would help my position.....but why do you say this? Just a passing thought or feeling or something more concrete?

Thanks.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #25,096
  • Jul 31, 2011 1:34pm Jul 31, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting Faller
Reasoning please? I would like to see this also.....as it would help my position.....but what do you say this? Just a passing thought or feeling or something more concrete?

Thanks.
Lol, Reasoning: In my Oanda account I see that the amount I have in unrealized loss has decreased by more than 10% since Friday close, so it is a FACT

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #25,097
  • Jul 31, 2011 1:50pm Jul 31, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting Faller
Reasoning please? I would like to see this also.....as it would help my position.....but why do you say this? Just a passing thought or feeling or something more concrete?

Thanks.
Also check out xe.com
  • #25,098
  • Jul 31, 2011 1:55pm Jul 31, 2011 1:55pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Lol, Reasoning: In my Oanda account I see that the amount I have in unrealized loss has decreased by more than 10% since Friday close, so it is a FACT

Shamu

Yup.....that is true....thanks.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #25,099
  • Jul 31, 2011 1:56pm Jul 31, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting fosking
Also check out xe.com

just loaded xe.......I see there is some movement......hopefully more.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #25,100
  • Jul 31, 2011 2:01pm Jul 31, 2011 2:01pm
77.08. I need 77.60 for my TP!
Today I BUY, tomorrow I SELL!
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