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NZD/USD

  • #601
  • Jul 26, 2011 7:23am Jul 26, 2011 7:23am
Quoting OMGtrader
Highly unlikely that this trend is end by Friday
anything can happen according to fundamentals in US. it is more likely to consider that US is not so dumb to not make any solution till August 2. They know what would lead this. and it's not good for themselves. i guess any solution would be good for dollar in short-term.
  • #602
  • Jul 26, 2011 7:28am Jul 26, 2011 7:28am
There is about a 1% chance that they don't get some sort of a deal through by the deadline. That is how the government works unfortunately. The dollar should get a boost when the deal hits but would fade as the "risk on" trade will also be back on. Either way, dollar goes down.


Quoting suirad
anything can happen according to fundamentals in US. it is more likely to consider that US is not so dumb to not make any solution till August 2. They know what would lead this. and it's not good for themselves. i guess any solution would be good for dollar in short-term.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #603
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:04am Jul 26, 2011 8:04am
okay, nzd under pressure compared to other currencies.
could this mean reaction on the statement of the nzd very overvalued? maybe.
0.8670 in sight, very important support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu gu au nu h1.png Size: 21 KB
  • #604
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:12am Jul 26, 2011 8:12am
I think it more due to some dollar strength as the US equity markets are set to open.


Quoting suirad
okay, nzd under pressure compared to other currencies.
could this mean reaction on the statement of the nzd very overvalued? maybe.
0.8670 in sight, very important support.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #605
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:12am Jul 26, 2011 8:12am
americans will take it down today. i have not seen a 30 pip fall in the first 30 minutes of the us session for a while now. best of luck to all shorters.
  • #606
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:23am Jul 26, 2011 8:23am
Quoting OMGtrader
I think it more due to some dollar strength as the US equity markets are set to open.
compared to eur,gbp and aud - nzd is the weakest.
the value of nzd do not depend on US equity opening.
  • #607
  • Jul 26, 2011 9:20am Jul 26, 2011 9:20am
this looks like it is pulling a aud/usd back in march....kept going until it hit a nice round number of 1.10. So probably going for the .90 target...
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #608
  • Jul 26, 2011 9:31am Jul 26, 2011 9:31am
Quoting frothy
this looks like it is pulling a aud/usd back in march....kept going until it hit a nice round number of 1.10. So probably going for the .90 target...
theres little chance that aud would stop at round number maybe 1.11 if it goes higher,the one thing i know now anyone wanting to go short,use very small positions as this thing just made new record highs and theres not a single signal to go short,as it takes minutes to cover 20-4o pips drop for nzd.
  • #609
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:21pm Jul 26, 2011 8:21pm
the dollar should get a boost against all currencies when the debt deal is reached. I think that would be the best time to short the pair, but it would mostly be short lived as dollar strength will fade. NZD/USD should inch higher after that.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #610
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:30pm Jul 26, 2011 8:30pm
Riding a long now, the new NZ business confidence caused a slight spike upwards and then retraced down to 0.8720, as long as the debt ceiling doesn't get raised, the usd will keep depreciating.
  • #611
  • Jul 28, 2011 8:12am Jul 28, 2011 8:12am
The kiwi is holding up quite well in light of the BS out there.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #612
  • Jul 28, 2011 8:33am Jul 28, 2011 8:33am
same people who are longing kiwi are long on jpy and chf.
  • #613
  • Edited 1:15pm Jul 28, 2011 1:04pm | Edited 1:15pm
Quoting pinkiaiii
same people who are longing kiwi are long on jpy and chf.
apparently for different reasons

chf and jpy go up as they are perceived as safe heavens, but in my opinion they made most of their potencial gains in the last months
CHF is slowly reversing, and jpy shall face intervention in case of further rise

aud and nzd are going up for basic rate differential reasons, but no matter if a deal is reached on USD debt or not, they are already overvalued at current levels, and discount future rate hikes

87 - 88 may be a good price to short for a quick drop to lower levels
Nevertheless, let's keep in mind that China is buying (you can see what happens after any drop in Tokyo or London session...), and going with the flow is still the best way to trade this pair, as currencies don't really care about fundamentals (tell me if you don't agree that CHF and JPY, and maybe even more the EUR have been overvalued for such a long time...)
therefore I would prefere to buy at lower prices rather than sell at current levels, as the last rise was bit too quick and overextended, and also due to USD weakness, but further upside may rather happen later, especially if China keeps buying a lightly traded currency as NZD is.

a postive US debt deal might boost the dollar for a few days and give chance to buy NZD at better prices in August before the coming rate hike.today's US session weakness in AUD and NZD might be a first sign (actually exactly the opposite happened yesterday in new york).
We shall see if this weakness will be confirmed in the first two sessions tomorrow, I think it will be the case, but I would let the price drop further and start buying. not sure if we will see 84, but low 85 might well be a good place to start accumulating again.
  • #614
  • Edited 2:14pm Jul 28, 2011 2:02pm | Edited 2:14pm
pair broke upward trendline on H1 chart. could drop a bit to nearest support at 0.8675
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #615
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:19pm Jul 28, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting fammira
apparently for different reasons

chf and jpy go up as they are perceived as safe heavens, but in my opinion they made most of their potencial gains in the last months
CHF is slowly reversing, and jpy shall face intervention in case of further rise

aud and nzd are going up for basic rate differential reasons, but no matter if a deal is reached on USD debt or not, they are already overvalued at current levels, and discount future rate hikes

87 - 88 may be a good price to short for a quick drop to lower levels
Nevertheless, let's keep in mind that...
Agree about most of the stuff you said concerning safe heavens currencies,didn't know that Chinese are buying this pair thou :] anyway im thinking if this will be the temporary top,then it might retrace to 80 before another go at 90s,but yeah theres plenty of levels to break before that.
  • #616
  • Jul 28, 2011 10:56pm Jul 28, 2011 10:56pm
Quoting pinkiaiii
Agree about most of the stuff you said concerning safe heavens currencies,didn't know that Chinese are buying this pair thou :] anyway im thinking if this will be the temporary top,then it might retrace to 80 before another go at 90s,but yeah theres plenty of levels to break before that.
yes, they do buy....

http://www.nzmint.com/bullion/news/m...a-buying-bonds
  • #617
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:32am Jul 29, 2011 12:32am
hi,

here's a possible short scenario. the upward wedge is broken and the potential short trade runs to the 50.0% fibo retracement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd-4h-wedge-break.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #618
  • Jul 29, 2011 7:46am Jul 29, 2011 7:46am
Quoting TerraceFX
hate trading against the wind but i couldnt help but placing a feeler short order at 86550.
Taking profit on first order, 2nd order stop moved to breakeven.
I fought the SNB and the SNB won.
  • #619
  • Jul 29, 2011 11:17am Jul 29, 2011 11:17am
weak gdp painting a blow off top?
I fought the SNB and the SNB won.
  • #620
  • Jul 29, 2011 11:20am Jul 29, 2011 11:20am
Hmm.. retracement off the bollinger bands on the daily, interesting, exited too early with only + 55pips, bullish sequence still intact. can we see .90 next week?
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