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NZD/USD

  • #581
  • Jul 25, 2011 7:05am Jul 25, 2011 7:05am
if to go long best place to watch is near 8670,if short below 8620,these are main support ressistance levels so far 2day.
  • #582
  • Jul 25, 2011 7:57am Jul 25, 2011 7:57am
Going long will be highly risky. I read somewhere the rise has been so sharp that the downfall can be even sharper. Also the current price has factored in a rate hike in september and october but does not factor the probability of a us default.
  • #583
  • Jul 25, 2011 8:01am Jul 25, 2011 8:01am
Quoting Nachiket
Going long will be highly risky. I read somewhere the rise has been so sharp that the downfall can be even sharper. Also the current price has factored in a rate hike in september and october but does not factor the probability of a us default.
Well, daily upward movement as of now is at 6 days extension move upwards, Seems like resistance at 0.866x is holding well, I fear the correction would only be in the form of consolidation between current price to recent support at 0.862x.

Though my broker's COT shows that more than 65% of the positions are shorting this pair, I'm still pretty bullish on this pair, I regret not closing out at 45pips, now i'm just looking to close at the nearest support and watch from the sidelines.
  • #584
  • Jul 25, 2011 8:04am Jul 25, 2011 8:04am
it has surprised you on the upside. it will surprise you on the downside as well. there are no linear movements in forex markets. the selling pressure @0.8660 is just too much. also i see that below 0.8640 it falls heavily. so watch for that level also.
  • #585
  • Jul 25, 2011 8:19am Jul 25, 2011 8:19am
240 min kiwi fork posted in message #496 still just about holding. Have added a red internal.....

beeb
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  • #586
  • Jul 25, 2011 9:42am Jul 25, 2011 9:42am
Quoting Nachiket
it has surprised you on the upside. it will surprise you on the downside as well. there are no linear movements in forex markets. the selling pressure @0.8660 is just too much. also i see that below 0.8640 it falls heavily. so watch for that level also.
If rbnz is not hawkish during next meeting, NZD should fall to 0.83-84

If the tone is bullish instead, the rise should continue, but I would not exclude a sell the news reaction

Markets can stay irrational for long time, but the fact that NZD is one of the most overvalued currencies remains
  • #587
  • Jul 25, 2011 9:48am Jul 25, 2011 9:48am
Quoting fammira
If rbnz is not hawkish during next meeting, NZD should fall to 0.83-84

If the tone is bullish instead, the rise should continue, but I would not exclude a sell the news reaction

Markets can stay irrational for long time, but the fact that NZD is one of the most overvalued currencies remains
also the fact remains that australian and nzd economies are the ones that are growing the fastest and healthiest so far,and theres no good news from US side,thats why all the money are put into stable countries like chf/jpy/aud,but none the less im short on this aswell
  • #588
  • Jul 25, 2011 10:30am Jul 25, 2011 10:30am
or is there a surprise left today? tomorrow nzd trade balance data is imp. Chances are that it makes its way up to 0.8720. I have 2 shorts open @0.8654 and i will carry the till 0.8880. I am waiting for a meaningful slide in the kiwi.
  • #589
  • Jul 25, 2011 3:09pm Jul 25, 2011 3:09pm
this reminds me of 2007....JULY 24!!! anyways...be cautious! everywhere I look i read about the potential volatility regarding the debt ceiling. good luck.
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #590
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:00pm Jul 25, 2011 6:00pm
ok the numbers for trade balance came out really bad,anyone know how this affects the economy or is it not that important data ?

Trade Balance
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif 230M
391M 552Mhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif
  • #591
  • Jul 25, 2011 9:16pm Jul 25, 2011 9:16pm
another full out reversal in the pair. It is just way too hard to pick the top in this, long until otherwise.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #592
  • Jul 25, 2011 10:06pm Jul 25, 2011 10:06pm
Today for a while it actually reacted to its weak trade numbers. That is where i cleared my overnight shorts in 40 pips profit. But again I am short @0.8692. This rally is due to the fake rally which the euro is showing.
  • #593
  • Jul 25, 2011 10:17pm Jul 25, 2011 10:17pm
new high @ 87 despite not so great data (of course thanks to the republicans fighting to approve the debt ceiling) .. where do we go now? short n wait for retracement?
  • #594
  • Jul 25, 2011 10:24pm Jul 25, 2011 10:24pm
It's not good and has been progressively getting worse. Part of it may be priced in due to the cyclone already so when the actual number drops it;s already a fade. Sort of a guess.

The roll is great and the pair has been on rally alongside Aussie so It was probably just ignored while the risk on and speculation continues.

Had the market been dead the reaction probably would have been more weighted.

Quoting pinkiaiii
ok the numbers for trade balance came out really bad,anyone know how this affects the economy or is it not that important data ?

Trade Balance
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif 230M
391M 552Mhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #595
  • Jul 25, 2011 10:57pm Jul 25, 2011 10:57pm
I think trendline is close from here and actually comes to 0.8720 that would be a 100% retracement from the 2008 lows. So ideally from that point onwards it should fall. no matter how good the data is and how hawkish the govenor is
  • #596
  • Jul 26, 2011 3:03am Jul 26, 2011 3:03am
so i am running an opinion poll. How many think

8800 in 2 days and probably 8900 by friday
  • #597
  • Jul 26, 2011 5:23am Jul 26, 2011 5:23am
it has been in a tremendous uptrend since, it is a bullet train to the upside. Not gonna doubt it that it goes even higher. I will only buy until otherwise.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #598
  • Jul 26, 2011 5:53am Jul 26, 2011 5:53am
Got knocked out of my short positions ugh..

Guess greed got into me, actually had my trades to close at b/e and a long put in, but I just wanted to get the TP i missed last week.

  • #599
  • Jul 26, 2011 6:41am Jul 26, 2011 6:41am
any chartist here? what is the final target/destination by friday? Is it going to get derailed?
  • #600
  • Jul 26, 2011 6:50am Jul 26, 2011 6:50am
Highly unlikely that this trend is end by Friday


Quoting Nachiket
any chartist here? what is the final target/destination by friday? Is it going to get derailed?
Trade what you see, not what you think!
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