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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #25,021
  • Jul 27, 2011 7:09am Jul 27, 2011 7:09am
if current low holds, short at 78.46, which was previous support and 76.4% Fibo.
Further shorts at round no. 80.00 near daily downward trendline

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UO2kDUBP8P...ell+signal.png
  • #25,022
  • Jul 27, 2011 2:26pm Jul 27, 2011 2:26pm
long term view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.png Size: 40 KB
  • #25,023
  • Jul 27, 2011 3:43pm Jul 27, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting PipPipPip
we'll see 77-75
Quoting PipPipPip
Still holding position. setting position to BE. . Volume on the usdx is picking up. There was hidden supply all over the screen on the dollar beginning of the week, and these past months was building up for the big move. Pros are not yet ready to take this thing up just yet. On the other hand, ES should blow through major upper resistance.

GL!

USDX 1H

First bar, hidden supply. major sell off. Looks like another setup coming soon.

http://specialfarm.net/images/dave_chappelle.jpg
couldn't post earlier. closed all huge shorts position for the last 3 months on uj and uchf.

good month all and gl!

http://www.smiley-lol.com/smiley/bananas/banana105.gif
  • #25,024
  • Jul 27, 2011 4:19pm Jul 27, 2011 4:19pm
Im gonna go long at Parity
  • #25,025
  • Jul 27, 2011 4:39pm Jul 27, 2011 4:39pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Im gonna go long at Parity
Totally agree
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #25,026
  • Jul 27, 2011 8:18pm Jul 27, 2011 8:18pm
Quoting J.Giordano
long term view
it has already broken trendline.
  • #25,027
  • Jul 27, 2011 8:25pm Jul 27, 2011 8:25pm
Logically thinking, there is no point in intervening now, or atleast until Obama settles the debt deal. If debt level raised, then automatically USD will strengthen, BOJ doesnt need to waste money pumping into the blackhole. If debt talk fails, then thats a different story and BOJ might go for co-ordinated intervention. Why should they do it until then? Any thoughts?
  • #25,028
  • Jul 27, 2011 9:42pm Jul 27, 2011 9:42pm
Intervention is pointless if it dun push above the 90.00 level,
I think the downward pressure is very real...we could see at
least 76.00 (again) even lower....
  • #25,029
  • Jul 27, 2011 10:19pm Jul 27, 2011 10:19pm
I am going to go long USD/JPY at zero. Currently at 77.7, please don't tell me it can't happen because everything is possible in forex
  • #25,030
  • Jul 27, 2011 11:22pm Jul 27, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting PipMaxzz
Logically thinking, there is no point in intervening now, or atleast until Obama settles the debt deal. If debt level raised, then automatically USD will strengthen, BOJ doesnt need to waste money pumping into the blackhole. If debt talk fails, then thats a different story and BOJ might go for co-ordinated intervention. Why should they do it until then? Any thoughts?
I agree totally. If you watch headlines, you will see that Japanese Finance Chief Noda has spoken to reporters literally every day this week and said he is "watching markets closely". Also, everyday companies complain about strong Yen. Today, Nissan said it was taking a big hit from it. Bottom line, the yen is too strong. However, the BoJ has to be looking at this and thinking it is not a good idea to intervene given all these debt issues, or it may fail.
  • #25,031
  • Jul 28, 2011 1:21am Jul 28, 2011 1:21am
Quoting Demon Bane
I'm certain that it'll test the 76.00....some people
in the market are already saying 65.00...looking
at the weekly chart, maybe possible....where's
the bottom? Nobody knows....
When ppl were speculating saying 82 is bottom i've been telling the same thing...

Nobody can predict market bottoms....

Raising debt and QE3 is the only way out for US dollar, which means yen will appreciate further...
  • #25,032
  • Jul 28, 2011 3:48am Jul 28, 2011 3:48am
usa wont default.

the cds payouts will make lemon bros look tame


Quoting ultra_knight
When ppl were speculating saying 82 is bottom i've been telling the same thing...

Nobody can predict market bottoms....

Raising debt and QE3 is the only way out for US dollar, which means yen will appreciate further...
  • #25,033
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:19am Jul 28, 2011 4:19am
Quoting tankokjian
usa wont default.

the cds payouts will make lemon bros look tame
You have no idea now collateral bonds work
  • #25,034
  • Jul 28, 2011 5:36am Jul 28, 2011 5:36am
Quoting ultra_knight
When ppl were speculating saying 82 is bottom i've been telling the same thing...

Nobody can predict market bottoms....

Raising debt and QE3 is the only way out for US dollar, which means yen will appreciate further...
My guess is that some prominent exporters will come out with simultaneous or joint announcements that they are moving production out of japan. My guess would be to the US or india and asean countries.
  • #25,035
  • Jul 28, 2011 6:27am Jul 28, 2011 6:27am
Quoting wontfindanam
My guess is that some prominent exporters will come out with simultaneous or joint announcements that they are moving production out of japan. My guess would be to the US or india and asean countries.
Every asian currency is appreciating along with yen, but not as much as yen.

QE3 means all asian currency will appreciate, suddenly getting jobs done in US will look attractive than rest of world.

All in all, US has to print to get out of this mess or default on debt
  • #25,036
  • Jul 28, 2011 6:53am Jul 28, 2011 6:53am
Quoting ultra_knight
When ppl were speculating saying 82 is bottom i've been telling the same thing...

Nobody can predict market bottoms....

Raising debt and QE3 is the only way out for US dollar, which means yen will appreciate further...
Don't post nonsense please!!

- QE3 is not even on the table
- Raising debt ceiling will make the dollar STRONGER
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #25,037
  • Jul 28, 2011 8:07am Jul 28, 2011 8:07am
Quoting KillerWhale
Don't post nonsense please!!

- QE3 is not even on the table
- Raising debt ceiling will make the dollar STRONGER
No Raising debt ceiling will make the dollar STRONGER too
but in not short period
  • #25,038
  • Jul 28, 2011 9:19am Jul 28, 2011 9:19am
If today market close @ 77.XX level, more downside
expected....basically the $ is weak...any upswing will
be short-lived....
  • #25,039
  • Jul 28, 2011 3:23pm Jul 28, 2011 3:23pm
anyone think that at these prices the yen is overvalued despite usd weakness. I mean these are record lows other than that once when they had to get intervention due to the quake. I don't think the yen can really go much lower and maintain it's export demand. there might not be intervention during the next few days, but at the same time, fundamentals will have to outweigh technicals as this is really a yen discount.
  • #25,040
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:25pm Jul 28, 2011 4:25pm
anyone longing this pair now is gambling their luck,whats 20-150 pips compared to the upside possibilities.
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