EURUSD

Back from a meeting.....not much going on?...little bounce I C

A mofu top usdx & more retracement expecting confirmation 73.37 next with the mofu now corresponding eu 4293 & 80 limits & gu 6314 if not now 6246 . round bottom /cup & handle to form as bullish continuation pattern.


fontu

Cloggie and I were talking about this yesterday

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nomura...quidity-freeze

USDX did poke through the intraday trend and looks to squirt up here soon.

Small AUD long scalp, too. Trying to force myself to play some longs...but right when I start...I'm back to being a fakking contrarian again! Some things never change!

Of course I do have bias. Question is, the bias is for WHICH TF? I don't practice hedging as a defense mechanism. That's for people that get scared because they don't know where the price is going and are trying to protect their losing positions. How many times did you have your SL taken out for the price to reverse and go straight to your TP. That is because you took a long for instance {not you, in general} on M15 but you failed to notice M1 was up against resistance? A reverse on M1 can drop the price 20 pips easily. Then the price finished it's move and went straight back up.... So anyway, the idea is, if you stare at the charts long enough you'll notice the pair is traded on ONE Time Frame at a time. You'll see H1 waiting there in suspended animation while m5 is going nuts up and down forming nice trends that reverse several times and when they are done they say, OK M15 take over (and now all the s/r on M5 are broken) and so on. Trading moves from one time frame to the other all the time, and there are NO RULES as to when that happens and in what order. That's when experience comes in, noticing the shift and acting accordingly....

Now, each TF are their own little universe with rules, price patterns, s/r. I trade each and every s/r on all TFs. If I see a trade, I take it. No ifs and buts. I am wrong of course, especially when I'm stupid enough to buy/sell the top/bottoms of higher time frames. When that happens and when I realize I'm in trouble, I phase out those bad trades (partially closing them so that the pain is not that bad), with profits I made going the other way.

So for instance, I could be long H1, short to all s/r to the middle of M15 and short all the way on M1. All these while holding long on H1 because I know it has some ways to go until it reaches it's top. And then H1 starts going down while M5 does it's dance up and down its s/r like a pin ball... Does any of these make any sense?

Either way, this is not for people that just got into this. I've been doing this full time for several years with an average of 16-18 hours/days. People here know I come in in the morning all the way into the TY session. I do take occasional beauty naps....

This is a game, a beautiful game... Don't look at the market as your enemy that has to be beaten. The market gives you money, all you have to do is have the guts to take it. All right, enough blah blah blah....

A Good Lesson To Learn From This Bearish Move

Let’s all understand that the Forex market is a market that is run in a larger percentage with emotion. Truly, everyone understands that USD is in crises fundamentally, so we expect EU to continue going up even without any retracement. It’s funny that so many questions have been forwarded to me concerning this bearish move as if it’s strange. This shows that majority of the traders were not expecting a retracement of this nature. Even if this move was triggered by a news, it has been shown early enough on the chart that a retracement was on its way soon (check my EU analysis for this morning).

Here is the lesson, no matter how strong a move could be or no matter the strength of the event or news that cause a move, there will always be a particular price or let me say a region of price where traders will think a pair has either been overpriced or underpriced. This has to do with emotion. Professional traders won’t feel comfortable until the price is normalized.

Just like I wrote earlier this morning, EUR, AUD, GBP and NZD have all gained enough strength for some days now against the USD, so even if it will be for few pips, there needed to be a retracement. Professional traders would prefer to put pressure on it to send it backward and then load more longs (if possible) to maximize profit. Psychologically, they will feel comfortable buying at a lower price than at an overbought price.

I know if you are a hard core Bull, this move may surprise or hurt you. So, please, always try to give the market a breathing space.

Happy pippin to you and me.

Tiamiyu Ibraheem Abiodun

Well, I didn't get up and trading again in time to to catch this little juggernaut, but at least did cover the EUR calls at a nice point yesterday.

Thank you, gentlemen, for the excellent level calls all yesterday afternoon. I'm sure I need not mention anyone by name.

Later.

Way to much info, please summarize.

just what not happened yesterday happening today , resume normal behavour .They fucked yesterday with US news without consent and it did the same with extreme bad news US even today .
fontu

Basis , not bias. The net position as of this moment. My question was if you were to square your positions right now, would you show a profit or a loss. Most playing this game would be negative because they harvest their positive trades and carry their losers.

This was the summary of the summary of the summary of the ...... LOL

i tought you trade something like pipeasy explain in his thread..

I like this method of swing trading. I've tried to do it on Oanda by selling some of my position for re-entry but there is a rule that the oldest order must be closed first here in the US only I think, which really screws this way of trading up.

I suppose creating a sub-account might work, but I've not yet bothered to try it.

Why do you get stuck on the net position? The net position compared with what base line? Does it really matter? What matters is the equity curve. I tried to explain as best I could how I trade, apparently, you want my net position and I'll answer it with a question to your question "Most playing this game would be negative because...."

Here's your question. Draw a horizontal line anywhere on your chart and count how many times was that pip traded. I'm really not going to go any deeper into this.

Eh whatta heck... The only two positions opened I have are from the 19th(and I'm starting to add longs, depending as I've mentioned in a post before), and they are under water 400 pips combined. From 19 to today I made 1700 pips. Does that answer your question?

edit: sorry if i wasn't clear. the opened losing positions are shorts. I was stubborn on those, kind of stupid on my part. I'm thinking to start phasing them out.

Wow, this is a great thread. Lots of useful information here. I will definitely be keeping an eye on this one.

When you guys have time I would like your feedback on a thread that I have just started. I basically post my daily analysis of the EUR/USD pair and post actual trade entries when I take up positions.

The thread is http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=305983

You can have a look and let me know what you think.

Thanks.

Look at this. I just realized that it may be EU just made a pulled back to broken channel . If this is the case and unless we break Lower TL it may head up again in coming days. MACD is bullish and stochastic is very choppy in OB position.

Long 1.4345, TP open, SL 1.4315

Closing shorts possibly, looks like we may be in consolidation for the remainder of the week unless fundies drive the market(s).

Of course there can be another leg down but range trading can be a very big possibility.

Yeah, if this doesn't give way, I am going to close shorts before the day is up. watching closly for close above the trend.