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  • #498,421
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:39am Jul 25, 2011 5:39am
Quoting Larseg
in stocks you dont really need patience, can just buy almost...
well... you know what I mean...
sure, If you trade big enough...the momentum there is easier I suppose...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #498,422
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:42am Jul 25, 2011 5:42am
Quoting budak baru
who will blink first...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #498,423
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:44am Jul 25, 2011 5:44am
Quoting PayTheLimit
sure, If you trade big enough...the momentum there is easier I suppose...

yes... yes...

sooo, been playing some flash games lately,

shell lock live is the one I have played the most... pretty good
  • #498,424
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:44am Jul 25, 2011 5:44am
Morning boys and girls. A bit of Monday morning quarterbacking here. The markets are not so sure that this is a euro bailout. Greek CDS has steadily climbed up all day and Moody is rumouring to cut Greek debt to default. Bondholders are eyeing the fine print closely on their CDS, and the naked CDS traders are still driving the price up. Fundamentally I am on the side of the doomsayers here and consider the EU proposal a de facto default. The market is slowly coming around to my way of thinking. German auction was fairly soft this morning telling me that the FI boys are eyeballing each other to see who jumps of the wagon first.

The voters in Germany are not happy either with their 400Bn+bill that they got handed over the weekend adding a heavy discount on the debt they have already underwritten of 200bps and the "forced" haircut of 35Bn in the first stage, increasing to 150Bn over the next few years. Merkel sold the first bailout as a profit exercise that would be repaid in less then 7 years, now the profit has dissapeared and the terms have gone up for some to 30 years.

This was a can kicking exercise, with added powers for the EFSF ignoring the no bailout clause of the Lisbon treaty.

4420-ish may well be the interim top here in the euro as long as the German/periphery spreads keep widening and the CDS's keep corking their way up.

The market is keeping all eyes on Obamarama and the muppets on both sides of he aisle over there to see what they can come up with in the next 48 hours or so.

AS to the US, the markets want a ceiling increase, which will be good for the dollar, the voters their have had their fill though and want spending cuts, they are getting tired of the politicians p!ssing away their money. The fact that Obamarama got sidelined yesterday by both sides of the aisle bodes not well for a deal today, he even hinted that he would veto any debtceiling increase without a tax increase, he is going back to his roots; tax and spend.

Ah well, all fun and games on the fundie side, I for one will not be buying this anywhere near 4420-ish and will keep on selling the rallies till the muddy fundie view gets a bit clearer.

Over and out.
  • #498,425
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:45am Jul 25, 2011 5:45am
Quoting PayTheLimit

btw 71.5 on some...
done on some there, moved some Sl's and tp's around, going to get something to eat, cant hold out any longer...bbl, gl, PTL...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #498,426
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:47am Jul 25, 2011 5:47am
Quoting PayTheLimit
done on some there, moved some Sl's and tp's around, going to get something to eat, cant hold out any longer...bbl, gl, PTL...

ok, later
  • #498,427
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:50am Jul 25, 2011 5:50am
Quoting Wulfgar
Im long at .8000 if we hit it... my massive order should propel the UCHF to at least .8500
why 0.85?

0.97 even 1.2 is all good
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Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #498,428
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:50am Jul 25, 2011 5:50am
Nice presentation


Quoting cloggie
Morning boys and girls. A bit of Monday morning quarterbacking here. The markets are not so sure that this is a euro bailout. Greek CDS has steadily climbed up all day and Moody is rumouring to cut Greek debt to default. Bondholders are eyeing the fine print closely on their CDS, and the naked CDS traders are still driving the price up. Fundamentally I am on the side of the doomsayers here and consider the EU proposal a de facto default. The market is slowly coming around to my way of thinking. German auction was fairly soft this morning telling...
  • #498,429
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:54am Jul 25, 2011 5:54am
Quoting cloggie
Morning boys and girls. A bit of Monday morning quarterbacking here. The markets are not so sure that this is a euro bailout. Greek CDS has steadily climbed up all day and Moody is rumouring to cut Greek debt to default. Bondholders are eyeing the fine print closely on their CDS, and the naked CDS traders are still driving the price up. Fundamentally I am on the side of the doomsayers here and consider the EU proposal a de facto default. The market is slowly coming around to my way of thinking. German auction was fairly soft this morning telling...
Thanks Cloggie, good stuff.
  • #498,430
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:00am Jul 25, 2011 6:00am
Quoting cloggie
Morning boys and girls. A bit of Monday morning quarterbacking here. The markets are not so sure that this is a euro bailout. Greek CDS has steadily climbed up all day and Moody is rumouring to cut Greek debt to default. Bondholders are eyeing the fine print closely on their CDS, and the naked CDS traders are still driving the price up. Fundamentally I am on the side of the doomsayers here and consider the EU proposal a de facto default. The market is slowly coming around to my way of thinking. German auction was fairly soft this morning telling...
Cloggie, I've just watched oil fall hard and close below the recent range base. Stocks still holding at support and not following it down. Was this an inventory based move that should be ignored? I don't feel like taking a long based on the current action. Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks.
  • #498,431
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:01am Jul 25, 2011 6:01am
Good Stuff. I know my analysis are far from yours, but at least I am glad that I am thinking on the same line ....

Quoting cloggie
........ all fun and games on the fundie side, I for one will not be buying this anywhere near 4420-ish and will keep on selling the rallies till the muddy fundie view gets a bit clearer.

Over and out.
Quoting Ssm
With due respect, listening only to suggestion here will lead to no where. A saying goes "if you fail to plan, you plan to fail". Draw up some charts for better understanding.

As per what you have mentioned that a long at this point is preferred, however, as per the Daily chart, I think that it is a risky business to long at this point. The best place to long would be when the Daily channel is broken, otherwise, a short opportunity it would be. ..... I don't know, I am still a newbie in this field.

Whereas for the debt problem, I believe...
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The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #498,432
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:01am Jul 25, 2011 6:01am
Quoting PayTheLimit
still a range..
sure, dont like action around 4386 lvl though...
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #498,433
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:01am Jul 25, 2011 6:01am
Quoting Sutts
Thanks Cloggie, good stuff.

Greece really could have done with a 40-50% cut in their debt to get them going, if you are going to default, why not go all out instead of reducing their overal debt by a measly 7%, is that really going to make a difference over there? Of course not. Call me a cynic, but was this whole deal just a good excuse to increase fiscal integration? The EFSF is now legally allowed, once ratified, to preempt bailouts without further direction from members and is also allowed to hold Bank debt..... The EFSF wanted to hold its AAA rating, so Germany had to drop in another 400Bn over the weekend to give it enough clout to participate in the bond market privately and directly. Is that going to help the current mess in Greece? Of course not. The market is slowly digesting the details here and are all coming around to default, a word heard more and more in the City this morning. Plenty of guys I have spoken to this morning are convinced that one or more of the rating agencies will lower Greek debt to default status, hold on to your hats if that does happen this week.

I am now keeping an eye on the US, and the T-bills, this is going to be interesting from a fundie point of view this week.
  • #498,434
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:03am Jul 25, 2011 6:03am
Quoting cloggie
Morning boys and girls...
nice summary, thx.
wish you a green day (sure you will have!)
  • #498,435
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:05am Jul 25, 2011 6:05am
Quoting cloggie
Morning boys and girls. A bit of Monday morning quarterbacking here. The markets are not so sure that this is a euro bailout. Greek CDS has steadily climbed up all day and Moody is rumouring to cut Greek debt to default. Bondholders are eyeing the fine print closely on their CDS, and the naked CDS traders are still driving the price up. Fundamentally I am on the side of the doomsayers here and consider the EU proposal a de facto default. The market is slowly coming around to my way of thinking. German auction was fairly soft this morning telling...
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #498,436
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:05am Jul 25, 2011 6:05am
Quoting Sutts
Cloggie, I've just watched oil fall hard and close below the recent range base. Stocks still holding at support and not following it down. Was this an inventory based move that should be ignored? I don't feel like taking a long based on the current action. Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks.

Don't go buying that just yet, unless you get a solid breakout of 100.00, that would need NY waking up first. To the downside, this could easily test 98.6 and 98.3 first.
  • #498,437
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:06am Jul 25, 2011 6:06am
Quoting cloggie
Greece really could have done with a 40-50% cut in their debt to get them going, if you are going to default, why not go all out instead of reducing their overal debt by a measly 7%, is that really going to make a difference over there? Of course not. Call me a cynic, but was this whole deal just a good excuse to increase fiscal integration? The EFSF is now legally allowed, once ratified, to preempt bailouts without further direction from members and is also allowed to hold Bank debt..... The EFSF wanted to hold its AAA rating, so Germany had to...
someone is in a good mood.. always love your analysis cloggie
  • #498,438
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:07am Jul 25, 2011 6:07am
Quoting cloggie
Greece really could have done with a 40-50% cut in their debt to get them going, if you are going to default, why not go all out instead of reducing their overal debt by a measly 7%, is that really going to make a difference over there? Of course not. Call me a cynic, but was this whole deal just a good excuse to increase fiscal integration? The EFSF is now legally allowed, once ratified, to preempt bailouts without further direction from members and is also allowed to hold Bank debt..... The EFSF wanted to hold its AAA rating, so Germany had to...
btw is there another country with default status?
did we have such a downgrade in the past?

thanks in advance,

Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #498,439
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:10am Jul 25, 2011 6:10am
Quoting PhAnTi'
btw is there another country with default status?
did we have such a downgrade in the past?

thanks in advance,

Jonas

We have never seen this in the developed world. Russia was close in the late 90's, but only defaulted on its internal debt, not the eurobonds it was holding at the time. GS back then put a plan together and that kept them in the green and of course made Goldman a pretty penny in the process...
  • #498,440
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:10am Jul 25, 2011 6:10am
Quoting cloggie
Morning boys and girls. A bit of Monday morning quarterbacking here. The markets are not so sure that this is a euro bailout. Greek CDS has steadily climbed up all day and Moody is rumouring to cut Greek debt to default. Bondholders are eyeing the fine print closely on their CDS, and the naked CDS traders are still driving the price up. Fundamentally I am on the side of the doomsayers here and consider the EU proposal a de facto default. The market is slowly coming around to my way of thinking. German auction was fairly soft this morning telling...

Hmmmm 1.4750 i wanna see
For the tottal shit hits the fan.
First need the final risk on rally.
For the shit hits the fan myself looking to buy around the 1.4290 1.4300.

Only bit shame the london pet shop boys didnt tripped the 1.4450s.
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