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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #7,401
  • Jul 25, 2011 2:06am Jul 25, 2011 2:06am
eurchf dropped ~ 950 pips between 4-Jul and 18-Jul.
last week's high at 11890 marked the completion of a 50 % retrace of that fall. from there we see a resumption of the down move.

staying with the downward direction, a bearish flag formed across today's open, S1 and 11675.

entry: 11673 (upon breakout)
exit : 11628 (near mS2 and 11625 upon consolidation)
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  • #7,402
  • Jul 25, 2011 2:42am Jul 25, 2011 2:42am
Quoting pgd
eurchf dropped ~ 950 pips between 4-Jul and 18-Jul.
last week's high at 11890 marked the completion of a 50 % retrace of that fall. from there we see a resumption of the down move.

staying with the downward direction, a bearish flag formed across today's open, S1 and 11675.

entry: 11673 (upon breakout)
exit : 11628 (near mS2 and 11625 upon consolidation)
Hi pg
That was too early for me but there was a picture perfect 5 min lh 7.45 gmt (9.45 fxpro time) at 1625. It was the best set up of the 4 I watch (gu, eu, ej, ec at the moment).
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  • #7,403
  • Jul 25, 2011 3:10am Jul 25, 2011 3:10am
Quoting Vantage
Hi pg
That was too early for me but there was a picture perfect 5 min lh 7.45 gmt (9.45 fxpro time) at 1625. It was the best set up of the 4 I watch (gu, eu, ej, ec at the moment).
vantage,

agreed. that would be the re-entry i'd planned after my exit.
had to attend a longish 'phone call and missed it.
hope you took it.

I expect some more good shorts set up in this pair over the week. the same with gbpchf. essentially, we may be looking at resumption of chf strength.
what do you think?

PS
you said, "That was too early for me". you meant you were still not at the comp OR the entry setup i took wasn't ripe enough yet?
  • #7,404
  • Jul 25, 2011 3:19am Jul 25, 2011 3:19am
Quoting pgd

I expect some more good shorts set up in this pair over the week. the same with gbpchf. essentially, we may be looking at resumption of chf strength.
what do you think?
Yes definitely looking to sell this chf strength on eurchf. I'm happy to watch ec which has only 2 pip spread on fxpro, gc atr not that much more than ec.
  • #7,405
  • Jul 25, 2011 3:44am Jul 25, 2011 3:44am
Quoting Vantage
Yes definitely looking to sell this chf strength on eurchf. I'm happy to watch ec which has only 2 pip spread on fxpro, gc atr not that much more than ec.
vantage,

i agree GCh spread is higher. but talking of longer runs here on sustained chf strength, i'd rather be in both so that whichever way eurgbp moves, either ECh or GCh would be making money.

I added a PS in my previous post by way of edit. apparently, that crossed with your reply. pl respond to the PS.

thanks.
  • #7,406
  • Jul 25, 2011 3:53am Jul 25, 2011 3:53am
Quoting pgd
vantage,

i agree GCh spread is higher. but talking of longer runs here on sustained chf strength, i'd rather be in both so that whichever way eurgbp moves, either ECh or GCh would be making money.

I added a PS in my previous post by way of edit. apparently, that crossed with your reply. pl respond to the PS.

thanks.
Not in front of computer.
  • #7,407
  • Edited 5:52am Jul 25, 2011 5:45am | Edited 5:52am
I guess this one is nearer to acumen's method than before. 15m chart with a 30ema, which is only there to keep me on the right side of the trade. I watched price approach S2, forming small candles, indicating a small period of profit-taking. Then, a couple of dojis testing resistance, before price fell away and I was in. Entry and exit as indicated.

Edit: Vantage and pg......thanks, guys, for prompting me to check out EU/CHF. It would never have occurred to me otherwise. Cheers!
Attached Image
  • #7,408
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:48am Jul 25, 2011 5:48am
Quoting pgd
eurchf dropped ~ 950 pips between 4-Jul and 18-Jul.
last week's high at 11890 marked the completion of a 50 % retrace of that fall. from there we see a resumption of the down move.

staying with the downward direction, a bearish flag formed across today's open, S1 and 11675.

entry: 11673 (upon breakout)
exit : 11628 (near mS2 and 11625 upon consolidation)
Nice trade, pg, although 1m charts are a little too fast for me. Well done, though!!!
  • #7,409
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:03am Jul 25, 2011 6:03am
Quoting eyevoltage
I guess this one is nearer to acumen's method than before. 15m chart with a 30ema, which is only there to keep me on the right side of the trade. I watched price approach S2, forming small candles, indicating a small period of profit-taking. Then, a couple of dojis testing resistance, before price fell away and I was in. Entry and exit as indicated.

Edit: Vantage and pg......thanks, guys, for prompting me to check out EU/CHF. It would never have occurred to me otherwise. Cheers!
Hi ev, nice trade
Euchf not one I'll trade against the trend.

I didn't take the earlier flag, left arrow, I was waiting for 15 min to turn around. Of course it then gave a large engulfing close so I left that move.

Missed the right arrow down which is the trade you showed. Was having lunch (Mondays after Sunday roast and I get to have leftover cauliflower cheese and bread and butter one of my faves!!).
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  • #7,410
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:25am Jul 25, 2011 6:25am
Quoting Vantage
Hi ev, nice trade
Euchf not one I'll trade against the trend.

I didn't take the earlier flag, left arrow, I was waiting for 15 min to turn around. Of course it then gave a large engulfing close so I left that move.

Missed the right arrow down which is the trade you showed. Was having lunch (Mondays after Sunday roast and I get to have leftover cauliflower cheese and bread and butter one of my faves!!).
Hi V.
I take the "large engulfing close" to mean all three candles?

(I'm guessing you have cauliflower cheese with your sunday roast EVERY week? One of my favourites as well, mate!)
  • #7,411
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:31am Jul 25, 2011 6:31am
Quoting eyevoltage
Hi V.
I take the "large engulfing close" to mean all three candles?

(I'm guessing you have cauliflower cheese with your sunday roast EVERY week? One of my favourites as well, mate!)
Sorry the 15 min engulfing close.

Mrs V was born at night but it wasn't last night. She knows that one massive pot of cauliflower cheese will do me for 2 days after Sun lunch. So her kitchen duties are a little less, but then so are my packing/unpacking the dishwasher so its win, win all around!
  • #7,412
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:45am Jul 25, 2011 6:45am
Quoting Vantage
Hi ev, nice trade
Euchf not one I'll trade against the trend.
I didn't take the earlier fl.....
Vantage, just wondering why? Also do you mean you won't at the moment or at any time?
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #7,413
  • Jul 25, 2011 7:07am Jul 25, 2011 7:07am
Quoting Ian
Vantage, just wondering why? Also do you mean you won't at the moment or at any time?
From the look backs that I've done it goes really great with trend and the number of counter trend OK moves that it has are no where near the false CT moves. This 5 min chart a good example and a nightmare if you trade small stops.

3 HL/dble btm/hl moves none of them look like a happy ending. Thats just an example and there will be lots where it did move of course. None of those I was remotely interested in trading.

Definitely for me a stick with the trend play based on what I've seen.
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  • #7,414
  • Jul 25, 2011 8:12am Jul 25, 2011 8:12am
Quoting Vantage
From the look backs that I've done it goes really great with trend and the number of counter trend OK moves that it has are no where near the false CT moves. This 5 min chart a good example and a nightmare if you trade small stops.

3 HL/dble btm/hl moves none of them look like a happy ending. Thats just an example and there will be lots where it did move of course. None of those I was remotely interested in trading.

Definitely for me a stick with the trend play based on what I've seen.
Yes, I see what you mean, thanks V.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #7,415
  • Edited 11:43am Jul 25, 2011 11:19am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting eyevoltage
Nice trade, pg, although 1m charts are a little too fast for me. Well done, though!!!
thanks, ev.

i recall you once told me something like, why the trepidation with 1 min charts; the principles remain the same. so, i have managed to outgrow the trepidation.

as usual, in the instant case too, i was on the 5m chart until just a few mins before entry. then, by dropping down to 1 min, i was able to get an entry keener by 5 pips.
  • #7,416
  • Edited 10:19pm Jul 25, 2011 11:37am | Edited 10:19pm
Quoting eyevoltage
I guess this one is nearer to acumen's method than before. 15m chart with a 30ema, which is only there to keep me on the right side of the trade. I watched price approach S2, forming small candles, indicating a small period of profit-taking. Then, a couple of dojis testing resistance, before price fell away and I was in. Entry and exit as indicated.

Edit: Vantage and pg......thanks, guys, for prompting me to check out EU/CHF. It would never have occurred to me otherwise. Cheers!
you're most welcome, brother. glad you made pips with it.
was wondering if i'd just held on to my early entry from 11673 and logically trailed / re-engaged all the way to your exit it would have been a good single 140 pip trade! seems pretty doable.

ev, why the change from ema34 to ema30?

cheers.
  • #7,417
  • Edited 2:07pm Jul 25, 2011 11:53am | Edited 2:07pm
chf day it was indeed!

only chf pairs hit their respective 5-day atr's and exceeded them; none other made it.

gbpchf: +80
chfjpy: +40
eurchf: +37
usdchf: +29
  • #7,418
  • Jul 25, 2011 2:07pm Jul 25, 2011 2:07pm
I took one about 2.15 GMT down to the S1

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1311620773
  • #7,419
  • Jul 25, 2011 2:24pm Jul 25, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting mysterio
I took one about 2.15 GMT down to the S1

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1311620773
good one!
you've really brought some order to the chaos.
  • #7,420
  • Edited 7:01am Jul 26, 2011 2:27am | Edited 7:01am
Morning, folks.
I wonder if anyone else picked up on this one? I missed it because of other commitments.
A large bullish flag pattern across the Main Pivot line, a break-out, then a retrace ending with a dragonfly doji touching the confluence of the flag and the 13ema. Price then continued north and is now testing MR1.
Attached Image
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