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Nb 1.0 trend trade system

  • #1,321
  • Jul 23, 2011 7:16pm Jul 23, 2011 7:16pm
OK lets look at what is happening. From testing I like what CTR does on the 1H chart. I will be comparing it with the 4H CTR this week. But I am testing 1H now so let me compare with what is happening so you can understand the basics. This is from 6-13 to 6-21 Range period. 5 CTR trades happen.
Pink Arrow #1 would be a loser unless you were willing to ride it out for 24 hours. #2 would have been profitable #3, #4, #5, would have been profitable especially if you use the MPTM with #5. #3 and #4 would have had several trades going here depending on the 20+10 MTPM and how it closed trades during this time. The issue is the 6-13 candle touched the line so then we would turn on the CTR buy EA. On 6-14 it would have taken its first trade.

That is one option. See pic below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-13 to 6-21.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #1,322
  • Jul 23, 2011 7:28pm Jul 23, 2011 7:28pm
Now on 6-22 you have a change from Range Trading RT to Down Trend DT. Now unles you have an immediate signal this is happening you will find yourself in a bad trade. So the pink line is the last Swing Low on the daily chart. You would close the CTR buy and immediately go with the trend trade and so a sell just below the pink line. Someone is going to be able to code this but I cant. That is how you get back into the DT. That is using the 1H CTR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-22 gbp cad.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #1,323
  • Jul 23, 2011 7:42pm Jul 23, 2011 7:42pm
The 2nd option for the 613 to 6 21 period, I will offer when price hits the line is the break out EA that works off of the Daily chart. If price is between the lines then you turn on the BO (breakout EA) It also does several trades. The two pink checks the MPTM would have given you minimum +10 trades. However, the trades breaking south of the blue line would have been real beauties giving you several days of good trades. Trade marked #3 would have been a buy but you would have needed to stop that trade out and then #4 bingo. Both of these options 1. Using CTR or 2. using BO would have been profitable and both would have needed disciplined SL. But the use of using these EAs would have been decided when the high on the white candle touched the blue line. When to best use either EA will only come from use and experience. Neither of which I have right now. We go from theory to practice. Maybe the BO EA can be broken into Sell only or Buy only and then we take our best guess on which way we think price will go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: breakout.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #1,324
  • Jul 23, 2011 7:52pm Jul 23, 2011 7:52pm
#6 in your example would be a beauty using the BO ea but not so good using CTR. #2 and #3 would be solid CTR trades but not so hot with BO. Be nice to know the future huh??
  • #1,325
  • Jul 23, 2011 7:57pm Jul 23, 2011 7:57pm
Now look at the 6-24 to 6-28 CTR trades. They are solid winners especially the first one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-24 to 6-28 ctr trades.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #1,326
  • Jul 23, 2011 8:02pm Jul 23, 2011 8:02pm
Dilemma trade. If you are using BO EA you are sitting good. If you are using CTR you have a long way until until the last swing low. So ............ If there is a great distance to the Swing Low use the BO EA. Other wise you will be fighting the trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dilemma trade.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #1,327
  • Jul 23, 2011 8:09pm Jul 23, 2011 8:09pm
Here is the CTR BUY you can see that the MPTM will save you on some of this but not all and there are a couple of nice trades here but CTR is going to be tough.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 627 to 6-29 ctr.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #1,328
  • Jul 23, 2011 8:13pm Jul 23, 2011 8:13pm
One last thing. I am thinking of when we turn on CTR we trade both buys and sells. That is a very dynamic EA and it would be another way of trading back into the trend. That would add two more trades (green arrows) to your profits. EGADS so many choices. What is a person to do???

Another thing i recognize while switching between the timeframes forth and back with hindsight to the daily TF is, that for example at No. 3 where a SHORT-CTR occur at the 4h TF, later it developed to a SHORT-Trendtrade. I think if this scenario happens it could be better to not close the SHORT-CTR because of continuation with trend. this could lead to a Always-In-The-Market-Strategy. But time will tell with more experience in the future.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 627 to 6-29 ctr sells also.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #1,329
  • Jul 23, 2011 8:17pm Jul 23, 2011 8:17pm
Now you can go back and use the 4H CTR and study the thing all over again. This is what I do and how I come up with this stuff. I am taking a break.
  • #1,330
  • Jul 23, 2011 10:56pm Jul 23, 2011 10:56pm
Quoting nanningbob
Be nice to know the future huh??


The future looks pretty bright with this system Bob, you better put on your shades !!

I tried the latest CTR version on Friday made 86 pips on just 2 pairs on H4 and thats after closing out all positions .

I will run all pairs on H1 and H4 this week and see how they compare.

Thanks for all your hardwork Bob, your a star..
  • #1,331
  • Jul 23, 2011 11:00pm Jul 23, 2011 11:00pm
Quoting ianp
The future looks pretty bright with this system Bob, you better put on your shades !!

I tried the latest CTR version on Friday made 86 pips on just 2 pairs on H4 and thats after closing out all positions .

I will run all pairs on H1 and H4 this week and see how they compare.

Thanks for all your hardwork Bob, your a star..
Check your daily chart with the pairs traded and see if the Daily was telling you it was ranging or trending. CTR probably will not do well in strong trending markets but will do very well in ranging or slow trending markets.
  • #1,332
  • Jul 24, 2011 1:53am Jul 24, 2011 1:53am
Quoting nanningbob
Now on 6-22 you have a change from Range Trading RT to Down Trend DT...
why would at this day a change from range to trend. the candle at 6-11 is a CTR candle because high is above and low below the blue line? you could not know in the future at the open of that candle at 6-22 form to a Trendcandle?

or do you switch to trend because the low at 6-11 was broken down?

thanks a lot

Mediator
  • #1,333
  • Jul 24, 2011 4:08am Jul 24, 2011 4:08am
sorry for asking all the questions, but i'd like to write an EA where all defintions for CTR and Trend-Trading is included.
  • #1,334
  • Jul 24, 2011 5:03am Jul 24, 2011 5:03am
Quoting Mediator
why would at this day a change from range to trend. the candle at 6-11 is a CTR candle because high is above and low below the blue line? you could not know in the future at the open of that candle at 6-22 form to a Trendcandle?

or do you switch to trend because the low at 6-11 was broken down?

thanks a lot

Mediator
That is why you also need to use a previous support line. It is a standard breakout read. I know there will be occasional fake-outs but if you wait for a candle to complete before your enter maybe the move will be done. I needed more to my definition than just one clear candle in certain situations. You need a point to end your CTR trades or you can end up losing much of what you earn or missing the continuation of the trend. I am hoping 10.0 more than anything will help you see and understand price action better so you can make better decisions. Obviously when that previous low gets broke you are back in the trend again. As time goes on we may come to a conclusion like during range time if the majority of a candle body is below the blue and red lines then we can still expect further DT or we may learn when we see rejection at the red line DT will continue. At this point I have not seen enough to come to that conclusion but it looks like those maybe good rules. Just some thoughts for now.
  • #1,335
  • Jul 24, 2011 5:11am Jul 24, 2011 5:11am
Quoting Mediator
sorry for asking all the questions, but i'd like to write an EA where all defintions for CTR and Trend-Trading is included.
Well, I know people have tried that in the past but I dont know if such a thing can be had. The one thing you can do that an EA cant is think. We can process variables that an EA cant. That is why I really dont believe there are out of box never have to touch EAs. They cant read the news. One of the things people criticize my systems are lack of TP rules. Well that is because TP rules can change from day to day. One day the market fluctuates so bigger TP are possible another it is just a dead day so smaller TP are needed. Anyway it may be possible to code a basic EA and then you only interfere when the market does something outside the range of the EA.
  • #1,336
  • Jul 24, 2011 5:26am Jul 24, 2011 5:26am
I must run all the EA's in one time to work?
  • #1,337
  • Jul 24, 2011 2:24pm Jul 24, 2011 2:24pm
just a test by combining the BUY and SELL EA and small modifications to make it work. no SL and TP were used in backtest.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 457 KB


and the complete test report:
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip StrategyTester.zip   10 KB | 471 downloads


and the EA:
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 10.0 DAILY BUY - Ido EA.mq4   7 KB | 492 downloads
(Source) and
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 10.0 DAILY BUY - Ido EA.ex4   8 KB | 493 downloads
  • #1,338
  • Jul 24, 2011 8:08pm Jul 24, 2011 8:08pm
Quoting Ravissek
I must run all the EA's in one time to work?
Go back and read the manual again.
  • #1,339
  • Jul 24, 2011 8:10pm Jul 24, 2011 8:10pm
Quoting ido370
just a test by combining the BUY and SELL EA and small modifications to make it work. no SL and TP were used in backtest.
Attachment

and the complete test report: Attachment

and the EA: Attachment (Source) and Attachment
I have found out that my profit trades are a higher percentage than my losers when I manually intervene at key times, however, I also know my profit per trade is lower because I hate to see a profit disappear.
  • #1,340
  • Jul 24, 2011 8:35pm Jul 24, 2011 8:35pm
With the news of debt ceiling all week and if there is no resolution soon you probably will not want to be in the markets by the end of the week. I would start winding down trades at some point because there is no telling how the markets will react. In 2008 when the banks crashed you would figure that would be bad for the dollar but it shot up 20-50% against many currencies. If the US goes into default dont ask me how the markets will because I dont know but you probably would not want to be in them. However, I will take the crosses with the trend trades in my 10.0 system and see what happens.

2. This also could make any testing useless because you will not be reading normal market results. Anyways counter trading in a heavy super news market can be an exercise in futility. Following the trend would be very very good. Get ready for an interesting week.
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