Price now seemingly stuck between R1 and yesterday's high. There's also been 4 HH/HL's, so will price now retreat or break upwards? TWT.
Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected
- #7,381
- Jul 20, 2011 6:30am Jul 20, 2011 6:30am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Son of this Sceptred Isle. | 3,635 Posts
- #7,382
- Jul 20, 2011 6:54am Jul 20, 2011 6:54am
Price now seemingly stuck between R1 and yesterday's high. There's also been 4 HH/HL's, so will price now retreat or break upwards? TWT.
Hi
I think it may wind up / go sideways for a while until US Home Sales. That may be the catalyst for a strong move up or down.
- #7,383
- Jul 20, 2011 7:03am Jul 20, 2011 7:03am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Son of this Sceptred Isle. | 3,635 Posts
Hi
I think it may wind up / go sideways for a while until US Home Sales. That may be the catalyst for a strong move up or down.
- #7,385
- Jul 20, 2011 7:19am Jul 20, 2011 7:19am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Son of this Sceptred Isle. | 3,635 Posts
I believe that i played a good breakout of a flag pattern, but got stopped out.
Any comments are welcome.
Just my opinion, mate. Others may see things differently
- #7,386
- Jul 20, 2011 7:37am Jul 20, 2011 7:37am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Son of this Sceptred Isle. | 3,635 Posts
Price now seemingly stuck between R1 and yesterday's high. There's also been 4 HH/HL's, so will price now retreat or break upwards? TWT.
- #7,387
- Jul 20, 2011 8:50am Jul 20, 2011 8:50am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Son of this Sceptred Isle. | 3,635 Posts
- #7,389
- Jul 20, 2011 9:04am Jul 20, 2011 9:04am
Faizal, I take it that your entry was 4190 and you were stopped out at 4143? Is that right? A 47 pip stop-loss? If so, that's rather a large SL for a 5m chart, IMHO. I would have been out a lot earlier than that. In a case like this one, don't wait for your SL to be hit, just get out ASAP, and see what happens. In this case, price reversed and took the flag out and carried on up, so you could have entered again at the next break-out with the minimum of loss.
Just my opinion, mate. Others may see things differently
yeah my stop was quite large on this trade.
However when i tend to use discretion and cut a trade before it has either hit my TP or SL my results tend to be a bit mixed.
I guess i need more experience in front of the screen to know when to fold em or hold em.
thanks for your comments.
- #7,390
- Edited 2:12pm Jul 20, 2011 9:52am | Edited 2:12pm
Faizal, I take it that your entry was 4190 and you were stopped out at 4143? Is that right? A 47 pip stop-loss? If so, that's rather a large SL for a 5m chart, IMHO. I would have been out a lot earlier than that. In a case like this one, don't wait for your SL to be hit, just get out ASAP, and see what happens. In this case, price reversed and took the flag out and carried on up, so you could have entered again at the next break-out with the minimum of loss.
Just my opinion, mate. Others may see things differently
adding to eyevoltage's comments:
1]
at the time u entered, EU had already done a range of ~150 pips, painting a high of ~4217 and there was a retrace of about 50%. so far so good. but, at 14190 (your entry level), a part of the pip potential was already gone and these could have been your possible targets, potential pips and reward/risk ratios (calculated using your s/l of 47 pips):
14200 (RN. potential profit = 10 pips; r/r ratio = 0.21)
14206 (R2. potential profit = 16 pips; r/r ratio = 0.34)
14217 (day's high. potential profit = 27 pips; r/r ratio = 0.57)
In order to justify poor reward/risk ratios, you would need to compensate with high win per centages.
how high? let's see:
reward/risk ratio __ 0.21 ______ 0.34 _____ 0.57
wins required
to stay even. ___ 82.64% ___ 74.63% ___ 63.69%
and... to make money, you would need to improve upon those win %ages !!
practically speaking, it's probably best to pass up a trade that has a reward/risk ratio of less than 1:1 at TP1, assuming your wins are somewhere between 50% and 60% of trades taken. that should make money on the whole.
you should check the math yourself and come to your own independent conclusions.
the reward/risk ratio is perhaps one of the best filters one can use.
2]
re. ev's suggestion to take the later flag breakout:
that one would have offered a reward/risk ratio of about 1:1 and that changes everything, making it worthwhile.
hope this helps.
cheers.
- #7,393
- Jul 21, 2011 4:38am Jul 21, 2011 4:38am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Son of this Sceptred Isle. | 3,635 Posts
Hi guys, haven't checked in here in a while! I had 6 months off after I graduated but ended up having to get a 'real job'. I get study days off to do the CFA exams so still like to do a bit of trading in the mornings. Here was this beauty for 30 very quick pips - leaving a small runner for S1. Zero analysis required, I literally turned my computer on 10 minutes before this triggered! Stop as always for me only around 15 pips.
http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1311239341
If you have a trendline...
- #7,394
- Jul 21, 2011 5:00am Jul 21, 2011 5:00am
Faizal,
adding to eyevoltage's comments:
1]
at the time u entered, EU had already done a range of ~150 pips, painting a high of ~4217 and there was a retrace of about 50%. so far so good. but, at 14190 (your entry level), a part of the pip potential was already gone and these could have been your possible targets, potential pips and reward/risk ratios (calculated using your s/l of 47 pips):
14200 (RN. potential profit = 10 pips; r/r ratio = 0.21)
14206 (R2. potential profit = 16 pips; r/r ratio = 0.34)
14217 (day's high. potential...
