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Trade What You See - Almost Naked Trading

  • #16,921
  • Jul 20, 2011 8:28am Jul 20, 2011 8:28am
Pairs that look like the one below are worth putting on a watch list, because the spring is getting tighter and tighter. It's just a matter of time before it pops in one direction or another.
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  • #16,922
  • Jul 20, 2011 10:44am Jul 20, 2011 10:44am
I have no idea how to optimise the profits and never really think about what I may have missed. I am of the B. Baruch school of thinking, I look for about 1/3 of a move, but I look for it over and over again.[/quote]

Hi Lawgirl.
Please tell me what you mean by taking 1/3 of a move. How do you determine what 1/3 of the move will be? Do you use fibs? One of my problems is knowing when to exit or what target to set. Too often my targets are just missed and the trade reverses.
  • #16,923
  • Jul 20, 2011 10:57am Jul 20, 2011 10:57am
Quoting degournay
I have no idea how to optimise the profits and never really think about what I may have missed. I am of the B. Baruch school of thinking, I look for about 1/3 of a move, but I look for it over and over again.
Hi Lawgirl.
Please tell me what you mean by taking 1/3 of a move. How do you determine what 1/3 of the move will be? Do you use fibs? One of my problems is knowing when to exit or what target to set. Too often my targets are just missed and the trade reverses.[/quote]

Wow! you are going way back. B. Baruch never tried to determine the very top or the very bottom of a move. He made his millions by taking roughly 1/3 of a move or just a portion of a move, but doing that time and time again. (1/3 is arbitrary, not exact)

Are you setting targets at reasonable support/resistence levels? Take a look at the chart below-- CHFJPY. I am in it on a short trade. I have set what I hope is a reasonable TP target just at the bottom of the wicks....which are really nothing more that price probes. I also like this pair for a short trade because of the RSIs. It is not a big TP, but this week's market is not giving much so far, so I will be happy with that if it reaches it.
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  • #16,924
  • Jul 20, 2011 11:31am Jul 20, 2011 11:31am
Quoting lawgirl21
Hi Lawgirl.
Please tell me what you mean by taking 1/3 of a move. How do you determine what 1/3 of the move will be? Do you use fibs? One of my problems is knowing when to exit or what target to set. Too often my targets are just missed and the trade reverses.
Wow! you are going way back. B. Baruch never tried to determine the very top or the very bottom of a move. He made his millions by taking roughly 1/3 of a move or just a portion of a move, but doing that time and time again. (1/3 is arbitrary, not exact)

Are you setting targets at reasonable support/resistence levels? Take a look at the chart below-- CHFJPY. I am in it on a short trade. I have set what I hope is a reasonable TP target just at the bottom of the wicks....which are really nothing more that price probes. I also like this pair for a short trade because of the RSIs. It is not a big TP, but this week's market is not giving much so far, so I will be happy with that if it reaches it.[/quote]

Thanks so much for your reply. Just exactly what I needed to know. I keep going back to your original threads just to see if I am following your instructions correctly! On the H1 4B BO when the trigger candle ie the one that is completly free of the SR line M15 chart, do the RSI arrows H1 and H4 still have to be pointing in the direction of the trade?
  • #16,925
  • Jul 20, 2011 11:44am Jul 20, 2011 11:44am
Quoting degournay
Wow! you are going way back. B. Baruch never tried to determine the very top or the very bottom of a move. He made his millions by taking roughly 1/3 of a move or just a portion of a move, but doing that time and time again. (1/3 is arbitrary, not exact)

Are you setting targets at reasonable support/resistence levels? Take a look at the chart below-- CHFJPY. I am in it on a short trade. I have set what I hope is a reasonable TP target just at the bottom of the wicks....which are really nothing more that price probes. I also like this pair for...
Thanks so much for your reply. Just exactly what I needed to know. I keep going back to your original threads just to see if I am following your instructions correctly! On the H1 4B BO when the trigger candle ie the one that is completly free of the SR line M15 chart, do the RSI arrows H1 and H4 still have to be pointing in the direction of the trade?[/quote]

BOs are pure price action moves. The RSIs do not need to be going in the same direction, but they will eventually follow PA, as the RSI is a lagging indicator. Of course, if the H1 and H4 RSI are confirming direction, it should make for a stronger, more reliable trade....remembering that the market does exactly as it pleases at all times.

I am also really liking the HA candles for BOs as they are more "conservative" and I am beginning to think give a stronger signal.
  • #16,926
  • Jul 20, 2011 11:49am Jul 20, 2011 11:49am
Quoting lawgirl21
Thanks so much for your reply. Just exactly what I needed to know. I keep going back to your original threads just to see if I am following your instructions correctly! On the H1 4B BO when the trigger candle ie the one that is completly free of the SR line M15 chart, do the RSI arrows H1 and H4 still have to be pointing in the direction of the trade?
BOs are pure price action moves. The RSIs do not need to be going in the same direction, but they will eventually follow PA, as the RSI is a lagging indicator. Of course, if the H1 and H4 RSI are confirming direction, it should make for a stronger, more reliable trade....remembering that the market does exactly as it pleases at all times.

I am also really liking the HA candles for BOs as they are more "conservative" and I am beginning to think give a stronger signal.[/quote]

Great thanks for that. Will convert to HA candles
  • #16,927
  • Jul 20, 2011 12:01pm Jul 20, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting degournay
BOs are pure price action moves. The RSIs do not need to be going in the same direction, but they will eventually follow PA, as the RSI is a lagging indicator. Of course, if the H1 and H4 RSI are confirming direction, it should make for a stronger, more reliable trade....remembering that the market does exactly as it pleases at all times.

I am also really liking the HA candles for BOs as they are more "conservative" and I am beginning to think give a stronger signal.
Great thanks for that. Will convert to HA candles[/quote]

Are you using the normal HA candles or the smoothed? The ones on MT are not great so I am downloading from the internet but they offer smoothed as well as normal
  • #16,928
  • Jul 20, 2011 12:10pm Jul 20, 2011 12:10pm
Add EURCHF to that list as well. ACtually looking for a place to short both.


Quoting lawgirl21
Hi Lawgirl.
Please tell me what you mean by taking 1/3 of a move. How do you determine what 1/3 of the move will be? Do you use fibs? One of my problems is knowing when to exit or what target to set. Too often my targets are just missed and the trade reverses.
Wow! you are going way back. B. Baruch never tried to determine the very top or the very bottom of a move. He made his millions by taking roughly 1/3 of a move or just a portion of a move, but doing that time and time again. (1/3 is arbitrary, not exact)

Are you setting targets at reasonable support/resistence levels? Take a look at the chart below-- CHFJPY. I am in it on a short trade. I have set what I hope is a reasonable TP target just at the bottom of the wicks....which are really nothing more that price probes. I also like this pair for a short trade because of the RSIs. It is not a big TP, but this week's market is not giving much so far, so I will be happy with that if it reaches it.[/quote]
Its all in the mind.
  • #16,929
  • Jul 20, 2011 12:27pm Jul 20, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting degournay
Great thanks for that. Will convert to HA candles
Are you using the normal HA candles or the smoothed? The ones on MT are not great so I am downloading from the internet but they offer smoothed as well as normal[/quote]

I'm just using the one provided by FXDD on its Navigator bar. I had trouble setting it up...until I discovered that "None" is a color choice under chart properties.
  • #16,930
  • Jul 20, 2011 12:33pm Jul 20, 2011 12:33pm
I'm not seeing a short on EURCHF yet...will keep it on my watch list.
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  • #16,931
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:51pm Jul 20, 2011 3:51pm
Quoting lawgirl21
I'm not seeing a short on EURCHF yet...will keep it on my watch list.
EURCHF is approaching a multiweek H4 line.
Intraday also a bearish H4 3T setup visible.
On the HA chart, it looks like the rally that started this week is running out of steam.
Weekly RSI is not in agreement yet, but we are close to interesting levels at the chart.
Patience will be rewarded, we need price action
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  • #16,932
  • Jul 20, 2011 6:13pm Jul 20, 2011 6:13pm
Quoting lawgirl21
Hi Lawgirl.
Please tell me what you mean by taking 1/3 of a move. How do you determine what 1/3 of the move will be? Do you use fibs? One of my problems is knowing when to exit or what target to set. Too often my targets are just missed and the trade reverses.
Wow! you are going way back. B. Baruch never tried to determine the very top or the very bottom of a move. He made his millions by taking roughly 1/3 of a move or just a portion of a move, but doing that time and time again. (1/3 is arbitrary, not exact)

Are you setting targets at reasonable support/resistence levels? Take a look at the chart below-- CHFJPY. I am in it on a short trade. I have set what I hope is a reasonable TP target just at the bottom of the wicks....which are really nothing more that price probes. I also like this pair for a short trade because of the RSIs. It is not a big TP, but this week's market is not giving much so far, so I will be happy with that if it reaches it.[/quote]

Finally hit my TP after consolidation. Out with 45 pips.
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  • #16,933
  • Jul 20, 2011 6:52pm Jul 20, 2011 6:52pm
Finally I am seeing some trends for the week. The weekly RSIs should be pretty well set so BOs or 3 Taps in their direction should be strong.
  • #16,934
  • Jul 21, 2011 12:26am Jul 21, 2011 12:26am
watch
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  • #16,935
  • Jul 21, 2011 12:30am Jul 21, 2011 12:30am
Quoting lawgirl21
Finally I am seeing some trends for the week. The weekly RSIs should be pretty well set so BOs or 3 Taps in their direction should be strong.

LG, it is fair to say you 'normally/typically' place your H1 4C BO orders in your mid-evening, or a bit later, and retire?

Otherwise, you need to be up for the first couple of hours of London or more which might keep a Pacific time person up another 4 or 5 hours.

SLs, if used, continue to be set at some reasonably clear prior S or R line?
A little tough to retire for the night, for me, on no SL.

-----
Are you continuing to do any harvesting from the Moneytree D1?

Best regards, Forest
  • #16,936
  • Jul 21, 2011 12:33am Jul 21, 2011 12:33am
USD CAD watch
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Click to Enlarge Name: usd cad watch 21 bo.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #16,937
  • Jul 21, 2011 1:11am Jul 21, 2011 1:11am
Another watch and possibly a branch on the MT
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  • #16,938
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:50am Jul 21, 2011 2:50am
Quoting lawgirl21
Pairs that look like the one below are worth putting on a watch list, because the spring is getting tighter and tighter. It's just a matter of time before it pops in one direction or another.
I notice that some traders are drawing their SR lines using the first bar as number one and counting to 6 and drawing the next line. ie from GMT+3 as first bar. Then there are others who start further to the right using that as their first bar. This changes the position of the horizontal lines completly which doesnt make sense as it is then being said, "any horizontal line can be used as support or resistance" OR are they drawing a "Sam Seiden" type SR zone? This is my first problem. My next is, if there is a break out to the upside on the M15 and the first clear bar closes RED, then there is no trade. Then for how long can one wait for the next clear bar to be green(long) before that setup becomes invalid? I still have major problems when trying to interpret my entry points. Thanks fo help re this
  • #16,939
  • Jul 21, 2011 8:00am Jul 21, 2011 8:00am
Quoting lawgirl21
Finally I am seeing some trends for the week. The weekly RSIs should be pretty well set so BOs or 3 Taps in their direction should be strong.
Been good these few days
  • #16,940
  • Jul 21, 2011 8:00am Jul 21, 2011 8:00am
Quoting eltax100
watch
You're in this EUR/USD trade after the breakout?
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