Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas | Page 337 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies

Trading technical analysis system based on Igrok method 137 replies

Forex Ideas & Comments 18 replies

The IGROK files - Adventures of a rookie using the Igrok method 416 replies

Fibonacci thoughts & ideas.... 13 replies

Attachments: Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas
Exit Attachments

Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #6,721
  • Jul 14, 2011 3:27am Jul 14, 2011 3:27am
Thanks for the answers!

I have ordered the book, I think Igrok wouldn't have so much followers if his book wouldn't be worth those 40 $. And I like clean charts, so this book is for me!
  • #6,722
  • Jul 14, 2011 2:59pm Jul 14, 2011 2:59pm
Quoting wolfraider
And possible scenario on bigger
Of course with a diamond inside on weeklies
BTW about Head&Shoulder. It has to seat on the top of up trend but not in consolidation zone. I refer to Igrok's pattern defenition.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_eur.jpg Size: 69 KB
  • #6,723
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:20am Jul 15, 2011 2:20am
Hello ya'll. I see a sweet broadening on the Loonie. Let's see if it turns out to be a precious diamond in some time.-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_broadening.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #6,724
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:40am Jul 15, 2011 2:40am
Quoting belekas
Hello ya'll. I see a sweet broadening on the Loonie. Let's see if it turns out to be a precious diamond in some time.-)


ID pullback setup in meantime while the pattern is growing
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USD_CAD_15 Mins_snapshot.jpg Size: 77 KB
  • #6,725
  • Jul 15, 2011 3:29am Jul 15, 2011 3:29am
Quoting PutaMadre


ID pullback setup in meantime while the pattern is growing
And preceding one in April-May with interesting symmetry
  • #6,726
  • Jul 15, 2011 10:23am Jul 15, 2011 10:23am
Quoting PutaMadre


ID pullback setup in meantime while the pattern is growing
Taking short position on the next pullback should recover the loss.
  • #6,727
  • Jul 15, 2011 10:51am Jul 15, 2011 10:51am
Quoting PutaMadre
Taking short position on the next pullback should recover the loss.
I am sorry, but you took a position against the weekly move?
  • #6,728
  • Jul 15, 2011 10:56am Jul 15, 2011 10:56am
Quoting jupiter_peak
I am sorry, but you took a position against the weekly move?
Yep, then reversed to shorts. I took it as intraday position with daily range target.
  • #6,729
  • Jul 15, 2011 11:02am Jul 15, 2011 11:02am
Quoting PutaMadre
Yep, then reversed to shorts. I took it as intraday position with daily range target.
Huuummm, taking positions like that considerably reduces your probabilities that price will reach your TP before it reaches you SL. It's simple law of physics.
  • #6,730
  • Jul 15, 2011 11:13am Jul 15, 2011 11:13am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Huuummm, taking positions like that considerably reduces your probabilities that price will reach your TP before it reaches you SL. It's simple law of physics.
I was referring to yesterdays higher close and the template at the present time, though new that timing for this pair was a little bit early nevertheless reversing along with weekly trend did the job done
  • #6,731
  • Edited 11:53am Jul 15, 2011 11:21am | Edited 11:53am
Quoting PutaMadre
I was referring to yesterdays higher close and the template at the present time, though new that timing for this pair was a little bit early nevertheless reversing along with weekly trend did the job done
I am sorry, but we had normal ADR yesterday no further expansion upwards was to be expected for today because weekly trend was down and we had sub par ADR for the pair yesterday. The fact that price closed in the neighbor hoods of the high have no meaning in this case, at least for me. Therefore, today, the only pullback choice I saw, was a SHORT position, not a LONG. You were taking a position against the main move of the week where yesterdays ADR actually took out the monthly/weekly low thus suggesting that todays price action would continue to expand downwards and not upwards. Not to mention that this pairs AWR was already gone. So even an intraday SHORT position, didn't make too much sense to me as well.

The other possible weapon of choice could have been 18.1 however with wider stops (around 40 pips).

;-)
  • #6,732
  • Jul 17, 2011 7:49am Jul 17, 2011 7:49am
what do you think about this one?

( I remember I saw similar pattern in Igrok thread or in one of his posts.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP JPY Daily.gif Size: 124 KB
  • #6,733
  • Jul 17, 2011 2:19pm Jul 17, 2011 2:19pm
nice one on 30 min EUR/GBP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur gbp diamond.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #6,734
  • Jul 18, 2011 6:23pm Jul 18, 2011 6:23pm
As Igroks trading method involve statistics and probabilities, I present this first hand information to you.

I have backtested 10 pairs using MSN historical data and found the valuable information for those of you who trade targeting % of average daily range completion.

It seems that at current market cycle, JPY pairs have a more limited potential to achieve above average ADR percentage. USDJPY and AUDJPY, for example, had above average (above 50%) performance at no more than 78-82% of ADR completion.

In other pairs, the % of ADR coverage seem to perform better than the JPY crosses.

EURCHF seem to be the overall champ. This pair has above average potential to achieve above 100% ADR completion. With an aprox. 136 pip average daily range, this pair seems to be a good choice for trading at a first glance. Of course, one has other things to consider (trend, SL placement and R:R) just to name a few.

Therefore, there is no point trying to set unachievable goals for a intra-day trade. The distance between your entry and your TP level has to be a very important component of trading tactics. Boarding a fast car (trend), going for an achievable distance (ADR % completion) will give a trader statistic advantage of price reaching the Take Profit level before it reaches the proposed Stop Loss level.

Here is the graph.

Setting a reasonable TP level has to be a very important part of one traders tactics.

Cheers.

PS: Special Thanks for Sorin (AKA SOSO) for helping me compile this valuable data.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2011-07-18 at 7.52.53 PM.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #6,735
  • Jul 18, 2011 11:07pm Jul 18, 2011 11:07pm
Very interesting. Every new day changes average daily range value. Do you mean that some pairs more frequently increase ADTR than others? NO? How to read your graphs for USD/CHF? Make an example please
  • #6,736
  • Jul 19, 2011 1:03am Jul 19, 2011 1:03am
Quoting wolfraider
Very interesting. Every new day changes average daily range value. Do you mean that some pairs more frequently increase ADTR than others? NO? How to read your graphs for USD/CHF? Make an example please
The graph shows the ability that every pair has to complete its average daily trading range.

Lets take USDCHF for example. For the last n days (in this case 60), swissey achieved 75%-81%, of its present ADR, 67% of the days. Therefore, setting your ADR template target to 75-81% of ADR, you should/could have 67% probability of reaching your target. This is well above average (50%). On a second look, 84% of the current ADR was reached 60% of the days. Therefore, 84% of ADR as a TP level for USCHF is still above average and a reasonable target.

However, if one tries to set 100% as target, the chances reduce below average (below 50%).

So as Igrok says, we have to try to take trades, that, with all combined elements, will give us above average chances that a TP will be hit before a SL is taken out. TP level seems to be a very important part of this equation.

If you run this graph with n days back, or n days closer, you can get an idea of how cycles change and therefore, we have increase and/or shrink in ADR and its ability to complete this ADR.
  • #6,737
  • Jul 19, 2011 1:50am Jul 19, 2011 1:50am
Quoting jupiter_peak
The graph shows the ability that every pair has to complete its average daily trading range.

Lets take USDCHF for example. For the last n days (in this case 60), swissey achieved 75%-81%, of its present ADR, 67% of the days. Therefore, setting your ADR template target to 75-81% of ADR, you should/could have 67% probability of reaching your target. This is well above average (50%). On a second look, 84% of the current ADR was reached 60% of the days. Therefore, 84% of ADR as a TP level for USCHF is still above average and a reasonable target.

However,...
And now after deep statistical research you have answer for a question at which pair you can safely wait for another 30 pips profit when ADTR is already reached. And on the other hand, at which pair to take profit when ADTR is far from being completed.
But as I understand even in worst case scenario at least 50% of bars make ADTR ?
  • #6,738
  • Jul 19, 2011 3:38am Jul 19, 2011 3:38am
Quoting jupiter_peak
As Igroks trading method involve statistics and probabilities, I present this first hand information to you.

I have backtested 10 pairs using MSN historical data and found the valuable information for those of you who trade targeting % of average daily range completion.

It seems that at current market cycle, JPY pairs have a more limited potential to achieve above average ADR percentage. USDJPY and AUDJPY, for example, had above average (above 50%) performance at no more than 78-82% of ADR completion.

In other pairs, the % of ADR coverage...
Very nice research! When I back-tested 18.4, TP level did naturally influence the overall profitability ranging from 80-110% of ADR, something your research shows too.

It seems like the most trending pair will have the highest probability for > 80%-100% ADR. How different results do you get using 30 days?

Good work JP and Soso.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #6,739
  • Jul 19, 2011 3:59am Jul 19, 2011 3:59am
Quoting aediaz1
It seems like the most trending pair will have the highest probability for > 80%-100%
Especially for Yen and its crosses some time later
  • #6,740
  • Jul 19, 2011 4:25am Jul 19, 2011 4:25am
Quoting aediaz1
How different results do you get using 30 days?
This is an older chart of mine, for EURUSD using 30 days ADR. The red lines are each for 1 year (1999-2010). As seen there are years where the range fulfillment is lower than average, and years where the range fulfillment is higher than average. The thick green is the average.

Hope is useful.

P.S. My own usage is to use TP1 as ADR 80%, the average being about 66% it means that if I nail the high/low of the day I have 2 out of 3 chances to reach TP1. As seen there are years when the fulfillment factor is lower than 66%, lowest being about 62%. But also there are years where the factor is higher than 66%.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_yearly.png Size: 29 KB
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
4 traders viewing now