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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,861
  • Jul 14, 2011 1:40am Jul 14, 2011 1:40am
Quoting Astroman
What effect, if any, do you think the U.S. raising its debt ceiling will have in the short term on this pair?
No one can say for sure, especially since we don't know to what limit or what the verbiage will be used in announcing it, but the market usually punishes prolonged instability and/or uncertaintity. So even if the limit is settled and the plan is laid out, the market might smash the dollar because it just likes to. Almost in a "Oh, you think you got things straight, well take that!" kind of way.

Long term will probably be bad for dollar too because I don't see any scenario where the US will not have to print like crazy. Who really knows? I guess we'll see with time.
  • #24,862
  • Jul 14, 2011 1:42am Jul 14, 2011 1:42am
Interesting times.

Scary times.
  • #24,863
  • Jul 14, 2011 1:52am Jul 14, 2011 1:52am
Quoting Astroman
Interesting times.

Scary times.
quote of the year(s)
  • #24,864
  • Jul 14, 2011 10:29pm Jul 14, 2011 10:29pm
Hi all,

I would like to learn from experts what are their
views about USDJPY....

So far there are two camps, one is optimistic that
90.00 will happen again, another is sure about
a plunge below 75.00....

Any expert care to comment on this? Thks!
  • #24,865
  • Jul 15, 2011 12:00am Jul 15, 2011 12:00am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398
  • #24,866
  • Jul 15, 2011 12:54am Jul 15, 2011 12:54am
Quoting Demon Bane
Hi all,

I would like to learn from experts what are their
views about USDJPY....

So far there are two camps, one is optimistic that
90.00 will happen again, another is sure about
a plunge below 75.00....

Any expert care to comment on this? Thks!
I am not an expert but here is my two cents.

Anything that is possible has a likelihood of happening.

A plunge below 75 is very possible but if it does happen I think it will just be a quick spike down that will shoot right back up. March 15 is a good example. I do not see levels staying at or below that level for any length of time but it is probable that price can and will hit those levels. Presently I would not be surprised if it spiked down there in the near future. Not saying that it will but if you are thinking Long be very aware that this could be a real possibility, especialy in the current environment.

Will 90 happen again?

Certainly, and parity will happen again as well. it is not a matter of if but when. It has a long road to hoe before it gets back up there again though.

Take a look at some of the higher TF charts (Monthly, Weekly) and you will see that getting back up to 90 is going to be a very , very tough battle. But eventualy it will be reached.

Someday.
  • #24,867
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:28am Jul 15, 2011 1:28am
Quoting Demon Bane
Hi all,

I would like to learn from experts what are their
views about USDJPY....

So far there are two camps, one is optimistic that
90.00 will happen again, another is sure about
a plunge below 75.00....

Any expert care to comment on this? Thks!
any drop should meet intervention, so 75 - 76 should see an immediate bouce to 78 - 79.60
80 should cap, unless they insist to intervene and induce offers towards 82-83.I don't see much higher levels at least until year end.

we also can't exclude the potency of a failed intervention, which could make USDJPY plunge quickly below the monitoring levels, though it's a remote possibility, as Boj never acts alone.

90 is possible, but only next year and if US economy recovers steadily.
to me, USDJPY remains a pair not to trade, as volatility is minimal compared to EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD, and when it becomes volatile, risk is higher

if I really had to put some chips, I would buy a mini lot after a bloodbath around 76 with a wide stop and adequate margin to slowly increase my long position down to 74 - 74
  • #24,868
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:32am Jul 15, 2011 1:32am
Quoting fammira

90 is possible, but only next year and if US economy recovers steadily.
yep.

Employment and R.E. has to recover first and this will not happen overnight.
  • #24,869
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:31am Jul 15, 2011 2:31am
Looks like the pair is stalling again. All the other pairs are trending nicely and only this pair has to stop dead in its tracks and move up in jerky motions.

Piece of crap!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #24,870
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:39am Jul 15, 2011 2:39am
Quoting Forexia
Looks like the pair is stalling again. All the other pairs are trending nicely and only this pair has to stop dead in its tracks and move up in jerky motions.

Piece of crap!
This Pair is fairly mellow for the most part except for those somewhat rare occurrences when it makes a big, quick move only to mellow out again.

Your " Piece of crap!" quote continually cracks me up.



So, is everything going alright with you?
  • #24,871
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:57am Jul 15, 2011 2:57am
Quoting Astroman
This Pair is fairly mellow for the most part except for those somewhat rare occurrences when it makes a big, quick move only to mellow out again.

Your " Piece of crap!" quote continually cracks me up.



So, is everything going alright with you?
It's going as good as summer trading would allow it. Thanks for asking.

How are things with you?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #24,872
  • Jul 15, 2011 3:04am Jul 15, 2011 3:04am
Quoting Forexia
It's going as good as summer trading would allow it. Thanks for asking.

How are things with you?
Not bad. Can't quite my job yet but but I am having a pretty good week even though it has been rather hectic.

Went Long on GbP/USD & Aud/USD on Sunday. Got kind of scary for a while but turned a good profit on both on Wednesday.

Just watching the Yen for the rest of the week, I need 79.95 to BE on my trade. I aint worried though.

Enjoy your weekend.
  • #24,873
  • Jul 15, 2011 4:29am Jul 15, 2011 4:29am
Can somebody share the Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money book elctronically ?

Thanks
Fabio

Quoting realjumper
Nice......thanks!!
  • #24,874
  • Jul 15, 2011 5:43am Jul 15, 2011 5:43am
Quoting Astroman
I am not an expert but here is my two cents.

Anything that is possible has a likelihood of happening.

A plunge below 75 is very possible but if it does happen I think it will just be a quick spike down that will shoot right back up. March 15 is a good example. I do not see levels staying at or below that level for any length of time but it is probable that price can and will hit those levels. Presently I would not be surprised if it spiked down there in the near future. Not saying that it will but if you are thinking Long be very aware that this...
I'm also keen to see 90.00 possibly next year....for now, I'm buying
below 79.00....78.48/50 seems pretty strong as a support....

Thanks guys for your insight to USDJPY....
  • #24,875
  • Jul 15, 2011 9:12am Jul 15, 2011 9:12am
Quoting Demon Bane
I'm also keen to see 90.00 possibly next year....for now, I'm buying
below 79.00....78.48/50 seems pretty strong as a support....

Thanks guys for your insight to USDJPY....
trade pairs that you can earn money from quicker, EURUSD and GBPUSD for instance

USDJPY could force you to watch for much longer...
  • #24,876
  • Jul 15, 2011 9:36am Jul 15, 2011 9:36am
i think if it breaks 79.30 then it will target 79.60 easily
  • #24,877
  • Jul 15, 2011 11:07am Jul 15, 2011 11:07am
Wow, FXCM now shows maximum volume for this pair.
  • #24,878
  • Jul 15, 2011 12:44pm Jul 15, 2011 12:44pm
Quoting Astroman
Not bad. Can't quite my job yet but but I am having a pretty good week even though it has been rather hectic.

Went Long on GbP/USD & Aud/USD on Sunday. Got kind of scary for a while but turned a good profit on both on Wednesday.

Just watching the Yen for the rest of the week, I need 79.95 to BE on my trade. I aint worried though.

Enjoy your weekend.
Woooo!! Glad you came out of the GBP and AUD trades with pips in your pocket. Those plunge were huge!!! Wow! You are one good Forex bumji jumper! I would've caved long time ago.

Can't blame you for staying out of this piece of crap Yen pair.

Have a good weekend too!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #24,879
  • Jul 15, 2011 8:49pm Jul 15, 2011 8:49pm
USD is weak and JPY is getting stronger....there's no reason to
buy the dollars now...a visit to the historical lows will be expected...
  • #24,880
  • Jul 16, 2011 12:29am Jul 16, 2011 12:29am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=396

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398
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