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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #98,421
  • Jul 14, 2011 5:22am Jul 14, 2011 5:22am
Quoting Adilius07
Jon, or I missed your point again? Can you please rephrase it a bit.
I sometimes have english problems still


lol, no you got it mate. i just dont think it is possible to force patience, maybe im wrong??, will loosing more money on a setup really make you learn something?? i have my doubts but i could be wrong, i often am lol

patience is a key factor in trading, believe me i know!!

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #98,422
  • Jul 14, 2011 5:27am Jul 14, 2011 5:27am
Quoting mbqb11
great close out alman, I almost did the same. But I caught the move to the former high on the chf/jpy on the breakout with the BUOB. Having a pretty good month so I decided to see if I could catch a real runner with the strength it was showing. I'm at b/e and it looks like it will get stopped out that way.

Nice trade brotha, simple stuff right

Mike

here you go guys. Market is out to get me ! Missed my take profit by a pip while I slept

Just kidding of course this stuff happens. That's what I get for trying to get more then 4 hours of sleep hah


Best
Mike
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  • #98,423
  • Jul 14, 2011 5:34am Jul 14, 2011 5:34am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
lol, no you got it mate. i just dont think it is possible to force patience, maybe im wrong??, will loosing more money on a setup really make you learn something?? i have my doubts but i could be wrong, i often am lol

patience is a key factor in trading, believe me i know!!

jon
Well maybe yes loosing more or winning more could calm me down and make me more picky.. I think...

But there is another problem, how would I recognize the "sure trade" before it actually happens?
  • #98,424
  • Jul 14, 2011 5:38am Jul 14, 2011 5:38am
Quoting AvanishDemo
yeah right..Mike will come in..to spk abt it..
atleast that will clear my doubt...i might have misinterpreted
my weakness is PB setup..so m glad that im sticking to my own rule that i will go only for protruding big PBs at respective and appropriate swings..(thanks Mike )

EDIT: yeah got it the video name :1-19-09 webinar breakout excerpt
(USDCHF pair)
yeah just watched it, it sounded like a break out play when i read it but i think youlle agree it wasnt the best example. price was running straight into some strong res. at 1.4240ish and we didnt get any decent PA on the lower TF.I think the bar you showed would have been much better if it sat on the 1.4200 PPZ instead of hovering above it. i think a little more space would have been preferable also. Lets see how Mike sums it up if he does..??
Well spotted though.

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #98,425
  • Jul 14, 2011 5:40am Jul 14, 2011 5:40am
Quoting mbqb11
here you go guys. Market is out to get me ! Missed my take profit by a pip while I slept

Just kidding of course this stuff happens. That's what I get for trying to get more then 4 hours of sleep hah


Best
Mike
lol, this is a sickner when it happens.
EDIT:Happened to me yesterday and went on to hit my stop!! again literally 1 pip!)

Mike could you give us your view on the breakout retest play Avanish mentioned...

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #98,426
  • Jul 14, 2011 5:41am Jul 14, 2011 5:41am
Quoting Adilius07
Well maybe yes loosing more or winning more could calm me down and make me more picky.. I think...

But there is another problem, how would I recognize the "sure trade" before it actually happens?
Yeah but is that patience???

lol dont worry thats my last word...

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #98,427
  • Jul 14, 2011 5:46am Jul 14, 2011 5:46am
Quoting mbqb11
here you go guys. Market is out to get me ! Missed my take profit by a pip while I slept

Just kidding of course this stuff happens. That's what I get for trying to get more then 4 hours of sleep hah


Best
Mike
Hi Mike, i was tempted to take this also but i was wondering what made you take the second bar and not the first???
cheers

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #98,428
  • Jul 14, 2011 6:04am Jul 14, 2011 6:04am
Ready to hit the accelerator uptown
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  • #98,429
  • Jul 14, 2011 6:14am Jul 14, 2011 6:14am
Quoting Bryan
Ready to hit the accelerator uptown
Hi Bryan,

Please don't take me worng. But if trades like this worked I would not be sitting here and crying after a year spent on this thread (would have been a millionaire by now probably).

Takes something more than just that! This one could work or could not work, doesn't matter, in the long run though it will ruin your account, just like did with mine.

We have to be MORE PICKY!!!

Sorry, man, just had to say that.
Good luck on this one!

Adi
  • #98,430
  • Jul 14, 2011 6:47am Jul 14, 2011 6:47am
Quoting Bryan
Ready to hit the accelerator uptown
you can either wait till it closes above the 23.6 fibo of last upmove - .852(but then you'll have little room up) or... ok, or I don't know

if you'll zoom out, you'll notice the green line is pretty decent.

also, look at transaction costs(5 pips in, 5 pips out).

and you're going in with this in US session(when they'll start fretting about debt ceiling and everyone's gonna posture on your money - I think, hopefully I'm wrong).
  • #98,431
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:04am Jul 14, 2011 7:04am
Are you not even slightly concerned with the possible resistance level of the last swing low which just happens to correspond more or less with the 38% fib level? Also in the second chart you can see that level act as support in the past.

I wouldn't want to put anyone off a trade but why are you trading against the trend? To me it is a low probability trade.

I bet a lot of people will be watching this now just to see what happens!

Good luck.
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  • #98,432
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:17am Jul 14, 2011 7:17am
Quoting Adilius07
So I thought what if to have a position size bigger it will make me more disciplined and if I have enough discipline it will also begin to make sense by making a few % per month at least...
Hi Adi,

Interesting subject this, I'd imagine you've done the numbers yourself, but an interesting figure I've just worked out is.. If you were to take 10% per trade rather than your usual smaller %, then with any size account it would take 8 losers in a row to half the account size, and 15 losers in a row to knock it down to a quarter of the original size (I think I've done my math correctly). That is probably cutting it too fine for most, 8 losers is never an impossibility. And obviously, 5%/trade would take 15 consecutive losers to half the account size.

But, considering those figures, if you have a decent track record i.e. good, consistent growth without large numbers of consecutive drawdowns, then I don't see that there is a huge amount of risk in taking a slightly higher % risk per trade. It's something I'm considering myself, for similar reasons.

All the best,
SG
  • #98,433
  • Edited 7:47am Jul 14, 2011 7:23am | Edited 7:47am
Quoting mbqb11
..
Just kidding of course this stuff happens. That's what I get for trying to get more then 4 hours of sleep hah..
nice trade...
4 hours is too much lol

Quoting Adilius07
So I thought what if to have a position size bigger it will make me more disciplined and if I have enough discipline it will also begin to make sense by making a few % per month at least....
My whole point was to how to make myself more picky, like super picky. That is if 80% is achievable... So I just think about all possibilities.. (but here too I can take one super trade a month and it will fail )...
it may make u more disciplined but highly unlikely...
a bigger position size, one which u are uncomfortable & inexperienced with, will give u undue, detrimental stress/emotional rollercoaster ride once u encounter problems/losses.

there is a saying: "dont put the cart before the horse".
in this case u want a bigger position size to be THE source of your discipline.
u should have inherent discipline before u increase your pos.size.

being picky is a skill in itself. u CANNOT derive it from an external source.
if u succeed in acquiring pickiness/discipline from an external source, im very sure it will be a very transient success.

again:
-discipline should be inherent (within you).
-being picky is a skill, it may take time for u to acquire it.


[[ DO NOT JEOPARDIZE YOUR TRADING ACCOUNT & JOURNEY. u have been warned. ]]
  • #98,434
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:26am Jul 14, 2011 7:26am
Quoting Sgrb1
Hi Adi,

Interesting subject this, I'd imagine you've done the numbers yourself, but an interesting figure I've just worked out is.. If you were to take 10% per trade rather than your usual smaller %, then with any size account it would take 8 losers in a row to half the account size, and 15 losers in a row to knock it down to a quarter of the original size (I think I've done my math correctly). That is probably cutting it too fine for most, 8 losers is never an impossibility. And obviously, 5%/trade would take 15 consecutive losers to half the...
Hi SG, yes of course only for this same reason I keep my positions low. I did the same calculations and 2% per trade theoretically "allows" me to lose 10-15 times in a row and I could still make it back... there is a lot of info about this in this thread.

But, IF we are talking 90% and more.... we don't need to take this into account. 1 trade per month 9 months out of 10 are winners (2 months reserved for vacation).

Also 90% could be 90 months out of 100 months (7.5 years out of 8.3 years) and here theoretically we can have those 10 losing months in a row... then we are in trouble.

But using common sense approach, when we say 90% and more, we mean "almost all trades are +" so for this high win rate 5% or 7% or 10% is really low risk or ok "normal"... for such a win rate.

EDIT: ALSO, look if you have whatever amount in your account, for example $10000 and you are using 1% risk. And are picky and trade rarely. So you are practically "using" $100 and leaving margin requirements out your $9900 are simply not working. They just sit there dead in your account. This is not very smart with 90% win rate! No?
  • #98,435
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:42am Jul 14, 2011 7:42am
Quoting supremeChaos
nice trade...
4 hours is too much lol


it may make u more disciplined but highly unlikely...
a bigger position size, one which u are uncomfortable & inexperienced with, will give u undue, detrimental stress/emotional rollercoaster ride once u encounter problems/losses.

there is a saying: "dont put the cart before the horse".
in this case u want a bigger position size to be THE source of your discipline.
u should have inherent discipline before u increase your pos.size.

being picky is a skill in itself. u CANNOT derive...
Strong point. Thank you very much SC.
I need to make some deep thinking about all of this.
  • #98,436
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:42am Jul 14, 2011 7:42am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi SG, yes of course only for this same reason I ....... for example $10000 and you are using 1% risk. And are picky and trade rarely. So you are practically "using" $100 and leaving margin requirements out your $9900 are simply not working. They just sit there dead in your account. This is not very smart with 90% win rate! No?
I'd agree... 100%

I currently use 2.5%/trade as it is, I am looking into increasing to 5%. My stats say it is well within the realms of a 'safe' increase..
  • #98,437
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:44am Jul 14, 2011 7:44am
Quoting Sgrb1
I'd agree... 100%

I currently use 2.5%/trade as it is, I am looking into increasing to 5%. My stats say it is well within the realms of a 'safe' increase..
What is your current win rate?
  • #98,438
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:47am Jul 14, 2011 7:47am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi Bryan,

Please don't take me worng. But if trades like this worked I would not be sitting here and crying after a year spent on this thread (would have been a millionaire by now probably).

Takes something more than just that! This one could work or could not work, doesn't matter, in the long run though it will ruin your account, just like did with mine.

We have to be MORE PICKY!!!

Sorry, man, just had to say that.
Good luck on this one!

Adi

Thank you Adi. Confidence is great but over confidence can kill.
Seems I did get lucky on this one, but I'd rather have skill over luck
  • #98,439
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:49am Jul 14, 2011 7:49am
Quoting supremeChaos
....being picky is a skill in itself. u CANNOT derive it from an external source.
if u succeed in acquiring pickiness/discipline from an external source, im very sure it will be a very transient success.

again:
-discipline should be inherent (within you).
-being picky is a skill, it may take time for u to acquire it....

I can see this from Adi's point of view for sure, when there is 'meaningful' money on the line, one is probably likely to be more cautious with their investments. But you raise a good point here SC and is something to think about.. I guess the sensible alternative would be to simply increase the account size (from an external source) and keep the same %/trade, if it were a possibility..

SG
  • #98,440
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:52am Jul 14, 2011 7:52am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi Bryan,

Please don't take me worng. But if trades like this worked I would not be sitting here and crying after a year spent on this thread (would have been a millionaire by now probably).

Takes something more than just that! This one could work or could not work, doesn't matter, in the long run though it will ruin your account, just like did with mine.

We have to be MORE PICKY!!!

Sorry, man, just had to say that.
Good luck on this one!

Adi

Out with a few pips.....ass in tact
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